Thiruvananthapuram is one of the 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala. The seat has special significance as its message percolates throughout the entire state. Almost all of the capital cities’ politics also have a domino effect on state politics. Like all of the Lok Sabha seats in Kerala, the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha seat has seven assembly segments. All seven Assembly segments of the seat fall within Thiruvananthapuram district.
The equation for Thiruvananthapuram is highly complicated for the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Of the seven Assembly segments, six are in the kitty of the Left Democratic Front (LDF), and only one seat in Kovalam is in the United Democratic Front (UDF) kitty as per the 2021 State Assembly elections. Let’s go after the results of the seven Assembly segments of the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha seat in the 2021 Assembly elections. The position of the Congress party is shaky in this seat. The BJP’s performance in the seat is appreciable on many counts. In the three Assembly seats of Kazhakootam, Vattiyoorkavu, and Nemom, the BJP remained ahead of the Congress party in the 2021 Assembly elections.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha poll, when the BJP narrowly lost to the Congress party by a margin of 15470 votes, the BJP took the lead on 4 of the seven Assembly seats within the constituency. The ACs on which, in the 2014 Lok Sabha poll, the BJP took the lead were Kazhakootam, Vattiyoorkavu, Thiruvananthapuram, and Nemom. If we go after the trend of the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections of the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha seat, then on the four ACs of Kazhakootam, Vattiyoorkavu, Thiruvananthapuram, and Nemom, the BJP remained strong.
The equation of this seat may turn around this time, and many voters may switch their allegiance to it due to changed political circumstances in the State. Three-term Congress party MP from the seat, Shashi Tharoor, are likely to face rebellion from his camp. A section of his party supporters may desert him as he dared to put his candidature for the post of party president against Mallikarjun Kharge. Kharge was the official candidate of the party’s first family, the Gandhi family. A section of the Congress party is suspicious that Tharoor may challenge the Gandhi family’s party in the coming days, so they may either skip voting or go for tactical voting to defeat Tharoor. This may be a big chance for the BJP to open its account in this important southern State.
Due to its poor performance in the 2021 Assembly elections, the UDF failed to bounce back into power in the State for the first time since 1982. From 1982 to 2021, there was a rotatory system of governance in Kerala as the LDF and UDF changed power after a gap of every five-year tenure. The morale of the voters and sympathisers of the Congress party is low due to the party’s poor performance in the 2021 Assembly elections. In the 2021 Assembly elections, the Congress party won only 21 seats by contesting 93 ACs, while the second lead party in UDF, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), won 15 seats by contesting only 21. The Congress party voters are worried due to the growing influence of the IUML within the alliance at the expense of the Congress party.
The Congress party’s poor performance has a very negative effect not only in Kerala but in the entire country. In 2019, the Congress party got 15 seats from Kerala. In 2019, 30 per cent of the Congress party seats in the entire country came only from Kerala. It will be tough for the Congress party to maintain even its current seat tally if they don’t repeat their 2019 performance in Kerala.
The BJP candidate, Rajeev Chandrasekhar, has been challenging both the Congress party and the CPI candidates. Rajeev Chandrashekhar has multiple roots in Kerala, so it’s easy for him to build rapport with the locals.
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