Left: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (Iran), Right: PM Benjamin Netanyahu (Israel)
Israel’s war cabinet has been working round the clock to decide on how to retaliate against Iran for its missile and drone attack. Iran fired nearly 300 missiles and drones on Israel on April 13, 2024, the first strike on the Jewish State from Iran soil which brought the into the open a year long shadow war.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed a strong response even though the United States and several other allies have urged them to not to escalate the war into a large regional conflict. Ministers in the Netanyahu government have publicly stated that a failure to act would signal weakness and encourage other attackers by its arch-enemy. But the country hasn’t yet given any details about how or when it will respond.
Some options that the Israeli government is mulling include air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Israel could respond to Iranian barrage with air-strikes of its own. Iranian defences are considered much weaker than the multi-layer system that Israel that Israel and its allies deployed on the night of April 13, 2024.
A potential strike by Israel could target strategic locations, including Revolutionary Guard Bases or nuclear research facilities. This would be amongst the riskiest and the most aggressive of all options and could force Iran to lash out at Israel again potentially triggering a war that the US, Europe and Arab states are so keen to avoid.
Israel has a history of pre-emptive military action taken against perceived threats to security having bombed an Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981 and a Syrian nuclear facility in 2007. Israel views Iran’s nuclear programme as an existential threat. While Tehran insists that its nuclear facilities are for peaceful purposes, the Jewish state believes them to be used for weaponisation.
Many of Iran’s nuclear strikes are deeply concealed underground posing a challenge to potential strikes. Consequently, many strategists believe that Israel would need US assistance for doing so. But US President Joe Biden has stated that the US will not help Israel for the latter’s offensive on Iran. Another target could be Iran’s Bonab Atomic Research Centre, the closest site Israel and 500km south of Azerbaijan, an ally of Israel.
Israel may potentially target Iranian military installations or critical infrastructure through either direct airstrikes or cyber operations. This strategy aims to deliver a deterrence message by striking Iranian territory while minimising civilian casualties, according to Siman Shire, the former head of Mossad intelligence agency research division.
While any missile or drone attack on Iranian soil would be significant for Israel, it might not be the first, former PM Naftali Bennett claimed that Israeli forces destroyed a drone base in Iran under his directive. An Israeli Air Force Officer stated during a press briefing that the air forces stand to defend Israel, emphasising the importance of reacting and striking back when necessary.
Israel has for years been blamed for cyber-attacks on both civilian as well as military sites in Iran as well as assassinations of Iran’s nuclear scientist and other intelligence operations, but has never claimed responsibility. It has carried out cyberattacks on infrastructures like petrol stations to industrial plants and nuclear facilities and a repeat is considered among the likely options for retaliation.
Any such attacks could interfere in highly visible areas such as energy production or flight services. As with direct air strikes, former intelligence officials say they believe Israel would avoid attacks on infrastructure such as hospitals to reduce the impact on the general population.
Instead of a direct strike inside Iran, Israel could also hit proxy groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or Houthis in Yemen. There also groups in Iran and Syria that are funded by Iran to attack Israel on its behalf. Israel has exchanged direct fire with Hezbollah since the war with Hamas began on October and it fended of missiles and drones from Houthis who have also attacked Israeli linked ships around the Red Sea Still the fighting has been kept below the threshold of war.
Israel could also focus on its six-month-old war in Gaza and destroying Hamas, including in the city of Rafah where the Israeli government says around 8,000 of the group’s fighters are lodged.
Defeating Hamas, which receives training and funding from Iran, would mark a victory for Israel against Iran, said Yossi Kuperwasser, a former research head of military intelligence. “This entire war, from day one, is a war against Iran,” he said. “We have to finish the job in Gaza to cause much damage to the Iranian axis.”
Israel is believed to have previously carried out several covert operations inside Iran, including the assassination of several of its senior nuclear scientists. Such operations could be carried out both inside and outside Iran.
Israel, while it deliberates on a military response, has stepped up diplomatic efforts to isolate Iran, including by extending sanctions. The United States said Tuesday it would soon impose new sanctions on Iran’s missile and drone program and that it expects its allies and partners to follow with parallel measures.
Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz has also renewed pressure on European countries to join the United States in declaring Iran’s Revolutionary Guards to be declared a terror organization.
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