Four States are going to hold assembly elections along with Lok Sabha polls of 2024. These States are Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim. Currently, three of the States are ruled by regional parties. These States have 414 Assembly and 51 Lok Sabha seats in toto. In the previous assembly elections of these States the Congress party won 13 seats in all four States.
The elections in these four States in 2019 witnessed the downfall of the Congress party and the ascendance of the BJP. Firstly, we start with Sikkim, the smallest among these four States in term of its size and number of seats in Assembly. Though both the main national parties the BJP and the Congress party, failed to open their accounts in State but the BJP got more than double that of the Congress party. The BJP garnered more than double of the INC vote share in spite of contesting half of the seats than the Congress party. Due to the performance of the BJP in 2019, 10 MLAs of the Sikkim Democratic Front joined the BJP. 2 MLAs of the SDF also joined the Krantikari Morcha too.
Currently, in Sikkim the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) consists of the SKM and the BJP and the alliance has 30 MLAs out of 32 member House. The SDF MLAs joined the BJP only due to its performance in 2019 State Assembly elections performance. The BJP and its partner, the SKM did well in three Assembly by-polls held just after the Assembly polls. The BJP won Gangtok and Martam-Rubbtek Assembly seats while its partner SKM won Poklok-Kamrang seat being vacated by the SDF patron Pawan Kumar Chamling. In 2019 Assembly elections on Gangtok seat the BJP garnered 392 (5.28%) votes. In subsequent by-poll on the seat the BJP won the seat by garnering 2508 (41.57%) votes. On Martam-Rumtek Assembly seat the BJP won the seat by garnering 8204 (66.28%) votes. On the seat the in the by-poll the BJP increased its vote share by 10 times in comparison to Assembly election. Poklok-Kamrang assembly seat was won by the BJP ally the SKM.
In the by-poll the SKM defeated the SDF candidate by huge margin of 8727 (69.02%) of votes. This seat was vacated by SDF chief Mr Chamling and in the by-poll the SDF lost its deposit too. Now the BJP has representation from Sikkim. Arunachal Pradesh is one among the Asthlakshmi States as being defined by the Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi. It has 60 member House. The State was once the stronghold of the Congress party. The Congress party won majority in 60 member Assembly on its own in six successive Assembly elections in the State in 1990, 1995, 1999, 2004, 2009 and in 2014. But in 2019 Assembly elections the Congress party tally came down to just four seats.
The results of 2019 Assembly elections in Arunachal Pradesh was a big reminder for the party as in previous Assembly elections the Congress party won 42 seats. The BJP which won only 11 seats in 2014 State Assembly poll won 41 seats in 2019. Arunachal Pradesh is one of the States where the BJP ascendance and the decline of Congress party is at the cost of each other. In 2004 and 2009 State Assembly elections the BJP won merely 9 and 3 seats respectively. But the BJP growth in Arunachal Pradesh is phenomenal. Not only in Assembly elections but the BJP won both the Lok Sabha seats in 2019 in the State.
Odisha is the State having 21 and 147 seats in Lok Sabha and in Assembly respectively. This State was once the stronghold of the Congress party like most of the States in India. The strength of the Congress party in Odisha can be assessed from the fact that in 1980 and in 1984 LS elections the party won 20 of the 21 LS seats in the State. In 1991 and in 1996 the Congress party won 13 and 17 seats respectively. Similarly in Assembly elections in State the Congress party won 118 and 117 seats in 1980 and 1984 Assembly elections in the State. In 1995 Assembly elections when late Rao was the party president the Congress party won 80 seats. But after that Assembly elections the Congress party gone for downfall and in dissolved Assembly the Congress party had MLAs in single digit. While the BJP consistently increased its vote and seat share in the State.
After initial speculation of any understanding between the BIju Janta Dal (BJD) and the BJP its likely that both parties will go on its own. In 2014 the BJP won only one seat from the State while in 2019 the BJP increased its seat tally from the State to 8. While in State Assembly elections the BJP seat tally increased from 10 in 2014 to 23 in 2019. This shows the BJP increasing graph in eastern India in States of West Bengal and in Odisha too. In this round of elections in State there will be race between the BJP and BJD to further cut into the vote bank of the Congress party.
Among the four States which are going for Assembly and Lok Sabha polls simultaneously Andhra Pradesh has highest number in Assembly and also in Lok Sabha from the State. Before formation of State of Telengana the State has 42 Lok Sabha seats. The State has played crucial role in 2004 and 2009 in formation of United Progressive Alliance government at Centre. But in last two successive LS polls in 2014 and 2019 the Congress party is unable to open its account from the State. The tally of the Congress party in Andhra Pradesh Assembly is zero. Besides Andhra Pradesh the Congress party has no MLA in West Bengal, NCT of Delhi, Nagaland and in Sikkim.
Currently in Andhra Pradesh there are two main political parties the Telgu Desam Party (TDP) and the Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP). But none of the two parties are interested to have any kind of alliance with the Congress party. In previous Assembly election in Andhra Pradesh the Congress party contested on 174 seats and lost its deposit on all seats. The State like many other States was once the stronghold of the Congress party. In 2019 Assembly elections the Congress party garnered only 1.17 per cent of vote.
In forthcoming Assembly and LS polls in Andhra Pradesh the BJP has already finalised seat sharing with the TDP and the Jan Sena Party (JSP) of Pawan Kalyan. In Lok Sabha from the State the BJP will contest on 6 seats while the TDP on 17 and the JSP will on 2 seats. In Assembly elections the BJP will contest on 10 seats. While the TDP will contest on 144 seats and the JSP will be on 21 seats. The seat sharing among the three parties in Andhra Pradesh for Assembly and Lok Sabha is appreciable and for long term political dividend. Sharing of seats among multiple parties is always a tough task. The BJP has acumen and adaptability of such kind of seat sharing.
While the YSRCP is going alone in the State in both Assembly and LS elections. The Congress party is also allying with the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the Communist Party of India. Seat sharing is still unclear in INDI Alliance in the State. The Congress party appointed Y S Sharmila, younger sister of incumbent CM Jagan Mohan Reddy as its State unit chief. Sharmila is appointed as the State unit chief only to divide the Reddy family. Its a step by the Congress party in desperation as the party has lost all of its hope in the State. The despearion of the Congress party is palpable from the fact that Sharmila merged her party YSR Telangana Party on January 4, 2024 and she was appointed as the State unit chief on January 16.
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