The upcoming Lok Sabha poll in West Bengal, with 42 Lok Sabha seats, is going to be tough to predict for one and all. Currently, the BJP, the AITC, and the INDI Alliance, or the Sanjukta Morcha as it is called in State are the main contenders.
The 2024 LS election in West Bengal is going to be easy for the BJP in many ways. In 2019 in West Bengal, the BJP was plagued with a credibility crisis for winning. In the 2019 LS poll, many of the sympathisers of the BJP had not vote for the party as they were suspicious of the BJP victory. Similar was the case in NCT of Delhi in 2013 when the voters of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) did not vote for the party as they were suspicious of the victory of the party in the Union Territory and won only 28 seats. But in 2015, after nearly 15 months, the AAP won 67 seats out of 70 in the House. The BJP is likely to get this kind of the support in 2024, as in 2019, the party had overcome the credibility crisis of winning.
The political situation in West Bengal is volatile. Mamata Banerjee, who was a pillar of the I.N.D.I Alliance, had voluntarily announced all 42 candidates from the State. Even Mamata Banerjee and Nitish Kumar were the two people who spearheaded the idea of I.N.D.I Alliance. Mamata Banejee had not even spared the two LS seats of Baharampur and Maldaha South LS seats which were won by the Congress party in 2019 LS elections. Mamata Banerjee didnot even care to consult or inform the Congress party or the allies of INDI Alliance about her decision to announce her candidates. The intentions of Mamata Banerjee were reflected when she joined the lone MLA of the Congress party Bayron Biswas, who won Sagardighi by-poll by defeating the AITC candidate into her party. The Congress party didnot win any seat in 2021 Assembly elections but the party won Sagardighi assembly seat which was vacated due to demise of the AITC MLA. In order to arrest spread of the Congress party in West Bengal Mamata Banerjee had joined the MLA to her party. Currently West Bengal is one of the five States where the Congress party has no MLAs. Other States are Andhra Pradesh, NCT of Delhi, Sikkim and Nagaland.
It’s all set that, like the 2019 LS elections and the 2021 Assembly elections, the 2024 LS elections in West Bengal will be between the AITC and the BJP. In 2019 LS poll all but two seats were won either by the BJP or by the AITC. Similarly, in the 2021 Assembly elections, all seats but one was won either by the BJP or the AITC or its allies. In 2024 LS elections it all likely that the AITC and the BJP will be in direct contest on all seats. In 2014 LS elections the Congress party lost its deposit on 35 seats, while in the 2019 LS elections, the party lost its deposit on 36 seats. On 34 seats the Congress party lost its deposit both in 2014 and 2019 LS polls. The Congress party is hardly able to put its fight on some seats in Muslim dominated areas. The Communists have lost their votebase to big extent. In 2014 LS elections the Communists lost their deposit on only one seat of Darjeeling while in 2019 LS poll only on Jadavpur Lok Sabha seat the CPM saved its deposit. This was the level of downfall of the Communists in West Bengal in such short span of time. Most of the voters who deserted the Communist bandwagon have voted for the BJP. Even the communists on many seats got one tenth of the vote in 2019 LS poll of its 2014 vote share.
Its clear to one and all that 2024 LS elections the contest is between the BJP and the AITC. So a major section of voters from the INDI Alliance will vote for the BJP as Mamata Banerjee treated them shabbily. We cannot deny the fact that the Sanjukta Morcha alliance will put such candidates which cut into the votebank of the AITC. In 2009 LS elections in Bihar the duo of Laloo Yadav and late Ramvilas Paswan had shared seats without consulting the Congress party though at that time they were allies. So in vengeance the Congress party put such candidates who cut into the vote bank of the RJD and the LJP. Due to such engineering by the Congress party the RJD seat tally came down from 22 to 4 while the LJP did not win any seat. Even late Paswan lost his own seat of Hajipur. So in order to cut her down to size to Mamata Banerjee the Sanjukta Morcha or the INDI Alliance may put such candidates into the votebank of the AITC.
During and after the LS elections, several leaders of the Sanjukta Morcha or the I.N.D.I Alliance may switch to the BJP. The BJP got clear majority in Tripura in 2018 by winning 36 of the 60 member House. In 2019 LS poll the BJP won both of the LS seats in Tripura too. The BJP performance in Tripura had given much needed confidence to the BJP cadres that they can defeat the Communists too. Initially, the BJP had only the knack of defeating the Congress party and then it was extended to the regional parties of Hindi speaking belt. Now the BJP had strengthened itself to defeat the Communist parties and the regional parties of the southern States too. The BJP cadres in Kerala will also take lesson from their counterparts in Tripura and West Bengal and likely to improve their performance in Kerala in the ensuing LS elections.
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