Prime Minister, Modi Ji on November 22, in Dungarpur, Rajasthan predicted not only the election result but the entire political career of Ashok Gehlot. He felt the pulse of the people, rejecting all narratives to divide the society and arresting the development of Rajasthan. Prime Minister predicted, “Ashok Gehlot’s Govt. will never be formed in Rajasthan”. This has come true on December 3, and people have shown that the forces advocating caste census, not taking clear stand in polarised issues like in Kanhiyalal murder, taking the decision to demolish the Temple at Khatu Shyam Ji premises can woo the voters just offering Scotty, Mobile, cheap gas cylinder and unrealistic promises.
Lotus wins, Gehlot losses
Rajasthan election results have given the thumping majority to BJP and reduced Congress at only 69 from 100 seats. There was a face of Ashok Gehlot from Congress whereas BJP had announced only Lotus as the Party face. Not projecting any leader like Vashundhara Raje has gone in favour of BJP because by this strategy, BJP mitigated any possible negative side of its earlier Government. All the top leaders of BJP fought unitedly because Lotus was the face and image was of only Modi Ji.
However, still there are plenty of false narratives circulated like despite the popularity of Congress Govt and good image of Gehlot, there were some key factors based on that Congress lost the election. This is a paradox because if the Govt was popular among people, there can’t be any key factor of not voting in favour of the Govt. Still some people are glorifying the Gehlot Govt and his one year populist packaged schemes. Indira Rasoi, Chiranjeevi Yojna, Scotty and mobile can’t supersede the wave of nationalism and Hindu sentiments which were neglected again and again by this Government. The paper leak, corruption at all levels, commission raj through Lal Diary and appeasement for one community cannot ensure the popularity at local levels.
BJP lost in 2018 by just less than one per cent vote share but this marginal difference caused huge difference in seats and BJP secured at that time, only 73 seats. Contrast to 2018, BJP has got a victory by 2.2 per cent vote share and converted into 115 seats. It means, when BJP lost the election in 2018, there was no less support for the Party compared to Congress but when BJP won the election, it is clearly stump out the Congress. There is no significant indication of popularity of State Govt and Ashok Gehlot image.
Compared to 2018, BJP secured almost Three per cent positive vote swing but Congress has somehow just managed the stable vote share. In other words, the so called popularity of Congress Govt or the popular image of Gehlot has not increased even one per cent votes in Rajasthan. The ticket distribution or rebel factors have played some major role because in some constituencies, BJP rebel won the election whose vote shares are under independent categories like in case of Chittorgarh where BJP MLA, Chandrashekhar Singh now as an independent MLA got elected and BJP came down here at third position. There are many seats where BJP faced challenges only because of rebel candidates and in most places, where BJP rebel got elected, the Party has slipped to third position because these rebel were treated as true BJP candidates by the people as also in case of Barmer constituency. However, it was seen that Prahlad Joshi and his team has tried hard to push only winnable candidates and having good proximity with the Prime Minister, he became successful to contain the many other rebel BJP candidates not to damage the Party. A person belong to Karnataka and being full impartial enough, he led the Party in inner side so well that the factor like Vashundhara Raje not projected as CM candidate and not giving tickets to many leaders based on references of top leaders got pacified and only the name and image of Modi Ji overridden everything.
In the opposition, people were speculating strong performance of RLP and AAP but RLP came down to one seat and AAP for nothing. AAP has fought 205 seats in all three states out of which it is forfeited in 201 seat. Now the question is, how the INDI Alliance will perform when SP, BSP and AAP did not get any performance in three Hindi heartland and Congress lost two incumbent States. The narrative like caste census has damaged heavily to INDI alliance that is also seen in the results of Rajasthan.
It is proved when it is analysed how the seats have shifted from one Party to other as it is shown in the Table. Out of 73 seats of BJP, the Party has retained 44 seats whereas Congress form its total 100 seats, retained only 35 seats. In other words, BJP has taken away 56 seats from Congress but at the same time, Congress has damaged BJP only at 25 seats.
The results in the major political regions of Rajasthan are showing the upper trends for 2024 Lok Sabha election because in Marwar, Dhundhar and Mewar regions where there are comparatively more seats, BJP vote share and seats have increased drastically like in case of Dhundhar region where BJP secured only 10 seats in 2018 but this time, it got 32 seats. So, it seems that repeating 2019 performance in 2024 will not be a tough task for BJP.
It is clearly seen in this election, Modi factor has beyond the speculations by pollsters and the loaded rhetoric “Modi Guarantee” and “Modi hai to Mumkin Hai” have swayed away the promises of free electricity, right to health and right to work by Gehlot Govt because people were in firm opinion that this Govt has done nothing for four years and in last one year, distributing State revenue and promising again distributing everything which are taken from the people. Therefore, this election shows the mature mindset of voters as they have rejected freebies (revdi culture) and divisive politics that was propagated through caste census but now the question is, in case of INDI alliance main planks failed, what will be next narrative of this election for 2024 election.
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