Early morning on Saturday, October 7, 2023, Israel witnessed the largest attack from Gaza Strip. Scores of Hamas terrorists infiltrated Israeli cities, hit military bases and took hostage/killed soldiers and civilians. On October 8, Israel declared war on Hamas.
Operation “al-Aqsa Flood” (so termed by Hamas) marked the first large scale conflict within the borders of Israel since the First Arab Israel War of 1948. Subsequent wars in 1967 and 73 were fought outside Israel territory. In 1948, Israel faced the ‘Coalition of Arab Armies’, and now confronts an alliance of sub-State groups led by Hamas military wing al-Qassam Brigade. This alliance includes Syria and Iran backed Palestinian Islamic Jihad, al Fatah, al Aqsa Martyr’s Brigade, Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine.
THE LAND OF ISRAEL
- As per the Mission of Israel to the UN in Geneva:
- The Jews believe the Land of Israel to be the birthplace of Jewish people
- Forced to live away from their land for centuries, the Jewish people never severed nor forgot its bond with the Land.
- With the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948, Jewish independence, lost 2,000 years earlier, was renewed.
SACRED TO JEWS, CHRISTIANS, AND MUSLIMS
- As per Britannica.com, the region (or at least a part of it) is also known as the Holy Land and is held sacred among Jews, Christians, and Muslims.
- Since the 20th century it’s been the object of conflicting claims of Jewish and Arab national movements, resulting in prolonged violence
- The name Palestine has long been in popular use as a general term to denote a traditional region, but this usage does not imply precise boundaries
- The perception of what constitutes Palestine’s eastern boundary has been especially fluid, although the boundary frequently has been perceived as lying east of the Jordan River, extending at times to the edge of the Arabian Desert
- In contemporary understanding, Palestine is generally defined as a region bounded on the east by the Jordan River, on the north by the border between modern Israel and Lebanon, on the west by the Mediterranean Sea (including the coast of Gaza), and on the south by the Negev, with its southernmost extension reaching the Gulf of Aqaba.
This unholy coalition enabled Hamas to launch a highly coordinated combined arms assault on Israel by low tech land, sea and air elements. It enabled the assailants to short-circuit and overwhelm the impregnable security perimeter that Israel had erected around the Gaza Strip. Such a high magnitude operation takes months/years to conceive, develop, organize and execute. It is intriguing how this was planned and executed under the watchful eyes and ears of Israeli and Egyptian intelligence, and even escaped attention of the omni-present American intelligence agencies. “Iran is the Answer” is my take.
PLANNING AND EXECUTION
Iran agents on ground appear to have meticulously assembled, funded and trained a terrorist structure inside Gaza Strip. This structure must have had highly committed and trustworthy individuals from various Palestinian groups. This elite structure managed to train/operate in air tight secrecy, unknown even to most in the official structure of Hamas, al Qassam Brigade, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other Palestinian organisations. As per reports received, launch of ‘Operation al Aqsa Flood’ stunned even senior Palestinian militants in Gaza Strip. But, senior Iranian officials knew about it, and most likely so did the leadership of Hezbollah.
Hamas launched the attack before the wee hours of Yom Kippur, a Jewish Holiday Run. It fired thousands of rockets and missiles into Israel and infiltrated over 200 soldiers into Israeli towns near Gaza Strip. As per available information, casualties on both sides are – 2100 killed and over 4,700 injured from Hamas rocket/missiles fire and Israeli air strikes till October 11, 2023. The Gaza Strip is carved out of south-west portion of mainland Israel. The other part is on the West Bank on Jordan River controlled by the Palestine Liberation Organisation. Out of the two portions of Palestine, this smaller portion is under Hamas.
Around 5:30 a.m. on October 7, hundreds of Hamas terrorists broke solid fencing on the border by bulldozers, used paragliders and small size boats to enter 22 or so border villages in Israel. They brutally killed and took hostage civilians as well as soldiers/police personnel changing duty.
Simultaneously, Rehovot, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Sderot, Ashkelone were subjected to a heavy, persistent volley of rockets/missiles. As per reports, Hamas fired more than 7800 rockets/missiles between six and eleven in the morning. Intermittent fire by Hamas is still on. Israel claims that about 85 per cent of these rockets were destroyed by the “Iron Dome Anti-Missile Shield”. This shield takes on only those projectiles which come towards populated areas. It engages enemy projectiles in seconds after they are fired, simultaneously sounding siren so that people can move to shelters. Shelters are located in underground basements of buildings. The terrorists took the hostages and dead/injured citizens/soldiers/police back to Gaza from these villages. There they danced around dead bodies, raped ladies, paraded dead/injured/raped victims on vehicles, took explicit videos and put them on Internet to teach the world ‘a lesson’.
CAUGHT OFF GUARD
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) were caught off guard. Majority were on leave due to “Yom Kippur Festival”. This absence was pronounced in southern Israel. IDF Headquarters took seven hours to mobilise and send reinforcement to southern Israel and to launch air strikes. Once IDF swung into action, things moved quickly. Israeli soldiers went to villages where terrorists had struck and rescued the trapped people. Secondly, Israel Air Force started bombing/staffing various Hamas centres in Gaza Strip. Three lakh reservists were mobilised by the morning of October 9.
The Opposition joined the ruling party to form an Emergency Government and pledged full support in fighting this aggression. Israel announced Total Blockage of Gaza Strip starting October 9. As expected, Arab countries and United Nations have condemned this Israeli move. Israel has advised the people in Gaza to leave for Egypt/elsewhere or face extinction. By morning of 11th, most border villages had been cleared of terrorists. The dead are being identified, number of those taken to Gaza is being ascertained and plans to bring them back are chalked out. Thousands are being treated in hospitals and people are queuing to donate blood.
Israeli Air Raids are continuing on 1256 identified targets in Gaza Strip. It will have to go for massive ground attack on Gaza Strip to free more than 200 hostages.
Israeli Prime Minister has apprised PM Narendra Modi about the nature and progress of crisis on October 10, 2023.
THE SAUDI-IRAN ISSUE
Rumours are that this massive attack on Israel was executed now because Saudi Arabia and Iran do not see eye to eye. Iran will acquire Nuclear Weapons of Mass Destruction any time now. Therefore, Saudi Arabia wants its own bomb to counter Iran, which is not possible without America. And America will approve it only when they make peace with Israel. Saudis have no issues with Israel. So, a peace deal between them is almost done. This deal is detrimental to Iran as well Palestine. So, Iran planned a massive attack on Israel, to be executed by Palestine/Hamas. A harsh and swift Israeli reply was anticipated. When death toll on the Palestinian side goes through the roof, media will scream GENOCIDE and the peace deal between Israel and Saudi will be derailed. That is a victory for Iran.
TIMELINE OF ISRAEL-PALESTINE CONFLICT
Late 19th Century:
- Zionism Emerges: The Zionist movement, advocating for a Jewish homeland in Palestine, gains momentum in Europe
Early 20th Century: - Balfour Declaration (1917): The British government issued the Balfour Declaration, expressing support for the establishment of a “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine
- Mandate Period (1920-1948): The League of Nations grants Britain the mandate to govern Palestine. This period sees increasing Jewish immigration.
1947-1948: - UN Partition Plan (1947): The United Nations proposes a plan to partition Palestine into separate Jewish and Arab states, with Jerusalem as an international city
- Arab-Israeli War (1948-1949): Following the rejection of the UN plan by Arab states, Israel declared independence, resulting in war. The war ends in armistice agreements, with Israel occupying more territory than allocated by the UN plan
1950s-1960s: - Refugees and Palestinian Nationalism: Many Palestinians become refugees, leading to the emergence of a distinct Palestinian national identity
- Suez Crisis (1956): Israel, along with Britain and France, invaded Egypt in response to the nationalisation of the Suez Canal. International pressure forces them to withdraw
1967-1978: - Six-Day War (1967): Israel defeats neighbouring Arab states (Egypt, Jordan, and Syria) in a brief war, occupying the West Bank, Gaza Strip, Sinai Peninsula, and Golan Heights
- Yom Kippur War (1973): Egypt and Syria launch a surprise attack on Israel to regain lost territory. The conflict ends with a ceasefire.
- Camp David Accords (1978): Egypt and Israel negotiate with US at Camp David. Egypt becomes the first Arab country to officially recognize Israel in exchange for the Sinai Peninsula
1987-1993 - First Intifada (1987-1993): A Palestinian uprising against Israeli occupation in the West Bank and Gaza Strip begins, leading to diplomatic efforts
- Oslo Accords (1993): Secret negotiations in Oslo result in the Declaration of Principles, a framework for peace negotiations, signed by Israel and the PLO
2000-2005: - Second Intifada (2000-2005): A violent uprising erupts, leading to a significant loss of life on both sides
- Disengagement Plan (2005): Israel unilaterally withdraws from the Gaza Strip, dismantling settlements and evacuating settlers
2006-Present: - Hamas Rule in Gaza (since 2007): Hamas, considered a terrorist organization by Israel and several countries, takes control of the Gaza Strip
- Failed Peace Talks: Numerous attempts at peace negotiations have not resulted in a comprehensive resolution.
- Hamas attack Israel (2008): Israel initiates a significant military campaign against Hamas in Gaza following an escalation of rocket attacks by terrorists. The conflict concluded on January 18, 2009, resulting in the loss of 1,440 Palestinian lives and 13 Israelis.
- Israel neutralise Hamas’s weapons (2012): Israeli forces conduct a missile strike that results in the death of Ahmed Jabari, a prominent Hamas military leader. Hamas responds by declaring that the action has “unleashed unprecedented turmoil”
- Hamas abducted teens (2014): Hamas abducts and subsequently kills three Israeli teenagers in the West Bank, setting off the Gaza War. This conflict, characterised by rocket attacks and airstrikes, claimed the lives of 2,251 Palestinians and 73 Israelis.
- US forces move to Israel (2018): The Trump administration announces its intention to relocate the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, effectively formalising US recognition of Israel’s claim to the city
- US troops in Israel (2018): Unrest flares up along the Gaza-Israeli border as the US Embassy moves in. Protesters hurl explosives and rocks over barrier fences, encountering gunfire and tear gas. According to the Gaza health ministry, at least 58 Palestinians lost their lives.
- Al-Aqsa conflict (2021): Conflict reignites when Israeli police conduct a raid on the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem on April 13, the initial night of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. They also disable the speakers transmitting prayers, occurring simultaneously with Israeli President Reuven Rivlin’s address at the Western Wall, a site of great significance to the Jewish community.
- Hamas attack on Israel (2022): During spring and summer, Israel faces a series of terrorist attacks, prompting preemptive measures including targeted airstrikes on senior commanders and weapons storage facilities belonging to Iran-backed terror groups like Islamic Jihad. 44 Palestinians, including 15 children, killed in ensuing violence.
- January, 2023: Israel initiated the first of two operations against the Jenin refugee camp in the West Bank, claiming that Palestinian terrorists and activists were using it as a hideout. The second operation, carried out in July 2023, involved approximately 1,000 soldiers with drone support targeting a “command center” in Jenin.
Spiralling violent clashes and use of new weapons leading to recurring fatalities to Israel, resulted in a prediction in early January 23 that Israel may have to face a severe attack in September/ October 2023. It was also predicted that such an attack would compel Israel to undertake more than her normal counter terrorism measures. The predictions were based on the following situations:
- Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, has been continuously provoking Israeli Defence Forces, IDF, on her North. Its provocative actions included a) Setting up tents in the Har Dov area, inside Israel; b) Dismantling surveillance cameras along the border fence near Fatima Gate; c) Anti-tank missile fire into Israel; d) Scant regard for “Blue Line International Border” between Lebanon and Israel by terrorists; e) Demand that Israel accept the sovereignty of Lebanon over northern Rosh Hanikra Railway Tunnel located/constructed inside Israel; f) Demand for curtailment of freedom given to UNIFIL to act on will in South Lebanon.
- Islamist terrorist organisations in West Bank were increasingly and successfully adopting Gaza fighting methods to harass Israel by a) Firing rockets/missiles and excavation of Command and Control Tunnels for infiltrating Israeli localities; b) they changed their mode of operation against Israel as per methods of fighting and tactics of terrorists in Gaza; c) These organisations successfully increased military cooperation taking cue from Joint War Room in Gaza; d) Iran and Hizbullah smuggled weapons into the West Bank, like they did in Gaza; e) Palestinian Islamic Jihad secretary general Ziad Al-Nakhaleh met Iranian leader Ali Khamenei in June 23 for arming of West Bank resistance groups. This has since been done as per available intelligence reports.
- Israeli action in Al Aqsa Mosque in May-June was bound to have its repercussions sooner or later, most likely during Jewish Holidays falling in September/ October. Hamas and Hezbollah spokesmen had stressed that any Israeli action in Al Aqsa Mosque could lead to a regional war.
- Mossad/Israel had threatened to assassinate terror operatives as well as their dispatchers, specifically Hamas leader Saleh Arouri. Both Hamas and Hezbollah discussed this with all components of the Resistance Axis in closed chambers in Lebanon in May. Hossein Amir Abdollahian, Foreign Minister of Iran, Al Nakhaleh of PIJ and Al Arouri of Hamas met in Beirut in September. Iran promised to assist these resistance groups. Thereafter, a Joint War Room of Hamas and PIJ was established in Gaza.
- Possible use of deadly new weapons by the resistance groups was compelling Israel to plan stern response even at the cost of comprehensive war. Israel was apprehensive of possible large number of Israeli fatalities due to extra powerful explosive charges and rockets given by Iran to these resistant groups. These Iranian weapons, including Kornet Anti-Tank Missiles, were to be smuggled in Israel through Jordan. Islamic Republic of Iran /Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps had been arming Hamas/PIJ and they, in turn, had started adopting Balance of Terror and Deterrence vis-à-vis Israel since April 6.
THE QUESTIONS AFTER THE ATTACK
- IDF had warned the Israeli government of such impending attack time and again. Why did the government not pay heed to these warnings
- Mossad is one of the best intelligence agencies of the World. How come it did not get even a whisp/hint of such large scale operation?
- Border fencing, Iron Shield, is a three tier security system which is constantly covered by observation and surveillance by sensors/soldiers and fire. Border Aid Party is required to reach any help call site within 20 minutes. Dead ground is covered by tanks. It is surprising that Hamas tractors/soldiers/civil personnel approached and breached fence, went to villages, took hostages and returned to Gaza Strip unnoticed.
- How come almost all Sensors and Electronic Intelligence System deployed on border stopped functioning at the same time
- Why so many tanks/armoured personnel carriers were void of troops in Southern Israel?
- Why it took seven hours to mobilise the IDF?
- Why Rescue and Relief Operations started only after six hours?
- Israel suffered the same fate during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, so how come they forgot/overlooked it.
These are points on which the Israel government, IDF, Opposition parties and people will have to dwell upon and find answers to in due course of time. But at present, nobody is raising these questions, nor putting the blame on anyone. Instead, all have united to fight this menace.
We, in Bharat, have to learn much from this. We have enemies lurking on Northern and Western borders. We will have to tighten screws on our intelligence agencies and troops deployed on borders. The Government, Administration and Public in general must not become complacent due to lull in situation. The enemy can strike anywhere, anytime is the Lesson.
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