As the voting has ended in Karnataka and the expected focus will now shift to ensuing elections in the Hindi-speaking States of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, as well as the State of Telangana in the Deccan plateau.
In fact, the coming winter elections in November-December will also witness an electoral contest in the small North Eastern State of Mizoram, which has only a 40-member assembly.
BJP ally MNF ( Mizo National Front ) is in power in Mizoram, while Congress rules Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. In Telangana, the newly renamed BRS (Bharat Rashtra Samithi) is the ruling dispensation.
The BJP is in power in Madhya Pradesh, and hence the desperation is more for Congress to regain the lost power.
In the 2018 assembly polls, the Congress had emerged as the single largest party winning 114 seats. Hence the anguish in Congress camp for losing the Jyotiraditya Scindia group in 2020 is still palpable. The BJP had won 109, and there were two from BSP.
The central Indian State has 230 members, and hence the majority mark is 116. In 2013, just a few months before the 2014 general elections that saw an unprecedented saffron surge and ‘Narendra Modi wave’, the BJP under CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan had won as many as 165 seats. Thus for the Lotus party, there was a net loss of 56 seats, and interestingly the, Congress had made a gain of exactly 56 seats.
All these make it obvious that the November polls this year will be more than crucial.
From a theoretical perspective, the stage will be set for the battle between old war horses and titans. Shivraj Singh Chouhan is a four-term Chief Minister already, and in the Congress, there are at least irreplaceable veterans Digvijaya Singh (onetime Guru of Rahul Gandhi) and Kamal Nath – a creation of Sanjay Gandhi’s school of politics.
But the grand old party has issues and internal bickering. In February this year, Kamal Nath’s supporters put out posters calling him ‘bhavi – future Chief Minister’. The move was publicly ridiculed by younger lots – Ajay Singh and Arun Yadav.
Without doubt, the BJP is smiling from a safe distance. “We have three-four permanent election issues in Madhya Pradesh. The Hindutva, development, Congress infighting and the ‘Modi magic,” says a Madhya Pradesh BJP leader.
The Congress has also started making moves, and former State deputy speaker Rajendra Singh has been tasked to head a manifesto committee. Among other things, the faction led by Kamal Nath has decided to throw up demand for a farm loan waiver.
For his part, BJP leader and Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has promised to give a grant of Rs 1000 per month to beneficiaries under the Ladli Behna scheme.
Needless to add, Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s ‘neighbour next door mama’ image and PM Modi’s powerful magical influence could save the day for the ruling BJP, which will yet again face double “anti-incumbency” in the November polls.
Everyone will be keeping an eye towards the Gwalior-Chambal region – which has 34 assembly seats, and the Congress has won 26. There is also a legacy pull and emotional touch with the Gwalior region for the saffron party.
In fact, in 2018, during his visit to Gwalior, PM Modi paid tributes to Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Rajmata Vijayraje Scindia (grandmother of Union Aviation Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia) and former BJP chief Kushabhau Thakre.
All three stalwarts had nurtured BJP during its infancy years in the Gwalior region.
In March 2020, 22 Congress MLAs, mostly loyalists of Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia, resigned from the Congress party and their Madhya Pradesh Assembly membership leading to the fall of Kamal Nath’s ministry. In the by-polls to 28 assembly seats in November 2020, the BJP had won 19 and thus could muster majority.
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