Karnataka, the only State in South India boasting of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Government ruling on its own, is all set for Assembly elections before May 2023, as the tenure of the 15th Assembly is scheduled to be over on May 24, 2023. The present predicament haunting the BJP is whether it will be able to retain the lone bastion below the Vindhya mountainous range.
No majority so far
Karnataka has not been a cakewalk for the BJP. In the 2004, 2008 and 2013 Assembly elections, the BJP could not emerge as the single largest party. It has always taken the support of regional outfits such as Janata Dal-Secular (JDS) to come to power. Likewise, even in 2018, the BJP failed to make it on its own, thus paving the way for a Janata Dal-Secular party-led and Indian National Congress (INC) supported regime under HD Kumarswamy. In July 2019, BS Yeddyurappa became the Chief Minister for the fourth time with defection by 14 Congress and three JDS MLAs. He unseated himself on July 28, 2021, paving the way for Basavaraj Bommai to take over the reigns as his successor.
Anti-incumbency factor
Since 1978, the people of the State have adhered to the policy of ousting the party in power, thus benefitting the opposition parties. From 2004 onwards, the State has also been manifesting a split verdict, thereby leading to a hung Assembly. And on all these occasions, the JDS, with mere 30-40 seats in a hung house with a total strength of 224, has managed to become the king rather than playing the role of a king-maker. This time around, it has again soured relations with both the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress. As they keep saying, “Politics make strange bedfellows’, nothing can be ruled out post elections and in the event of a hung Assembly. Notwithstanding, the anti-incumbency factor is bound to have an impact.
Reservation controversy
According a separate minority status to the Veerashiva Lingayat community became a bone of contention during the 2018 polls. This was also portrayed as one of the major issues responsible for the drubbing of the then-ruling party, Congress. These days, the Panchamashalis, a peasant sub-sect of the Veerashiva-Lingayats, has been agitating, demanding reservation under the 2 A category.
The Basavaraj Bommai Government initially tried to underplay the reservation agitation, and attempts were made to create a rift among the concerned pontiffs. However, the movement continues, and the State Government’s measure of pacifying both the Veerashiva-Lingayats and Vokkaligas, the strong 00 peasant class of the old Mysuru region, by hiking the reservation quota misfired. The Karnataka High Court has ordered status quo, preventing the Government from going ahead with the enhanced reservation. Kurubas, the single largest Other Backward Class (OBC) community, is demanding the ST tag, and so are the different sections of the society like Kshatriyas and Reddys among others.
A lesson for rebels
The defection of 14 Congress and three JDS MLAs is bound to become another poll issue in their respective constituencies. Except for AH Vishwanath, former state JDS president, who was humbled in his Hunsur constituency in Mysuru district, most of the others managed to swim against the tide in the subsequent elections. Both Congress and JDS leaders are sharpening their political weapons to teach the party deserters a big lesson.
CD Racket
Belagavi district politics is riddled with politicians-cum-sugar factory owners, irrespective of parties. Among the notables are the Jarkiholi brothers Ramesh, Satish and Balachandra. Satish is the state Congress Working President while Ramesh lost his ministerial position, due to the sex CD racket. He did everything to return to the Cabinet, but in vain. He has become infamous over the CD case in the district, and the issue is expected to have its own impact on the district outcome.
Tussle for CM post in Congress
From a public perspective, both KPCC president DK Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah, leader of the opposition in the State Assembly, present a united pose by raising hands together. These days, the fact that both of them continue to nurture the dream of getting the coveted CM’s post is no longer a public secret. Siddaramaiah’s ploy of ensuring the defeat of Dr G Parameshwara, former KPCC president in his native Koratagere constituency of Tumakuru district, in 2018 has spread across the State by word of mouth.
So, the Dalits’ strategy is to defeat Siddaramaiah from wherever he contests.
JDS dreams of becoming the king again
Meanwhile, HD Kumaraswamy, twice Chief Minister, is again daydreaming of becoming one for the third time though a handful of his legislators are already planning to desert the party.
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