Sumeet Mehta
Congress and Nehru – Gandhi Dynasty will invest heavily in its last-ditch effort to save itself from getting washed off from the country's political landscape.
History has shown that Congress has never come to power in states where it lost three assembly elections in a row. That leads to the party slowly losing relevance in local bodies, too, once a political alternative is available. The only exception is Madhya Pradesh, where Congress won the 2018 elections after a hiatus of 15 years.
I am sure this is a cause of severe concern for Congress in general and the sole proprietors of the party — Nehru – Gandhi Dynasty — in particular. They need to be concerned about the loss of all their influence over bureaucracy and judiciary with this final collapse in the 2024 general elections. This will spell a disaster for Congress because the victory of BJP in 2024 will drive an exodus of Congress party members from the party. This, in turn, will lead Congress and Nehru – Gandhi Dynasty down the hill towards obliteration. This will be why Congress and Nehru – Gandhi Dynasty will invest heavily in its last-ditch effort to save itself from getting washed off from the country's political landscape.
Currently, Congress and Nehru – Gandhi Dynasty are not working on winning the 2024 general elections. They are fully aware that they cannot win elections and install a Congressi in the PMO. Hence, Congress will prefer a third – fourth – fifth – sixth – nth front coalition forming a government with outside support of Congress. This will help Congress retain its stranglehold over bureaucracy and ensure the judiciary doesn't slip out of its control zone. Frequently changing Prime Ministers will come as a bonus for Congress, as it will handle misgovernance. At the same time, the coalition Prime Minister enjoys the glamour of Prime Ministership and has to take the blame and responsibility for misgovernance. This will be a smart strategy of Congress to instil in the public consciousness the need to give a decisive electoral verdict in favour of Congress, to avoid political turbulence and uncertainty arising from frequently changing Prime Ministers. Congress is also fully aware that once BJP loses 2024, it will take decades before it can project another person who can win the imagination of the masses. So for the foreseeable future, BJP will be finished.
Electioneering for 2024 has already begun with leftist style hyperactive agitprop against the government on everything – including good government initiatives like Farm Bills, leading to agriculture sector reforms. Opposition to Article 370, CAA, and Ram Mandir is more to appease Muslims and retain their confidence and support than to oppose the government for the sake of opposing. This will get viler as we get closer to 2024. Woke SJWism on feminist and casteist issues and blatant misinformation campaign to further false atrocities on Muslims and Christians, to show government and country in a bad light will be one of the templates Congress will use to sway a critical mass of BJP voters away from BJP. Along with this, media will be used effectively to share misinformation on the failure of governance by BJP, exactly the way they did during CAA and Farm Bills. The strategy is a mix of intimidation and shaming to first silence vocal BJP supporters on social media and nudge fence-sitters and silent sympathisers and supporters to either vote for the other party or press NOTA.
2024 elections is a fight to finish for both sides. It is a battle of survival for Congress and a battle of supremacy for BJP.
The real fight will start with the 2022 UP assembly elections. Lucknow is the gateway to Delhi. Results of the 2022 UP assembly elections will be the leading indicator of the outcome of the 2024 general elections. UP assembly elections are something for everyone to watch out with the bated breath.
(The writer is a Chartered Accountant by qualification and a Corporate Finance and Investment Professional. He is also the author of “Diagnosing GST for Doctors”, published by CNBC Books 18. He tweets from @sumeetnmehta.)
