Preparing For Hybrid Warfare

Forces inimical to our national interests have been using unconventional methods to weaken us politically and economically. Bharat should adopt a multi-domain approach to defeat their nefarious designs

What has been the most fundamental difference that PM Narendra Modi-led NDA Government has made in the last seven years since 2014? There are certainly many fundamental differences that the nation has witnessed but one striking thing that most people, especially those living in major cities can relate to, is that people can see that life has been restored to normalcy. People have started going out to markets, shopping malls and restaurants and celebrating festivities out in the open. They have started travelling in train and airlines, visiting iconic temples, without fear of becoming hapless victims of devastating terror attacks that had almost become a norm than exception between 2005 and 2012.

It was not just the devastating 26/11 terror attack that made innocent civilians the ill-fated targets of heinous terror attacks by Islamist terror groups funded by Pakistan, but one still shudders to think about the manner in which India was routinely struck with serial blasts in prime cities like Mumbai, Delhi, Jaipur, Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Hyderabad or even holy towns like Ayodhya during that era between 2005 and 2012.

In the last seven years, one can state with conviction that major metropolitan cities of India did not witness any large-scale terror attack. To that extent, the credit definitely goes to PM Modi-led NDA Government. No one denies that Jammu and Kashmir did witness terror attacks including major ones and there have been terror strikes in Pathankot as well. But a few things have to be remembered. Jammu and Kashmir is not like any other State of India. It has been in the middle of a war against foreign funded radical Islamist terror groups for decades now. Secondly, terror attacks, be it in Pathankot, Uri or even Pulwama, were not aimed at civilians but at security installations and security personnel. Therefore, those terror attacks, even though extremely unfortunate and heinous, fall in a different category than attacks on urban civilian hotspots of India.

For each of the major terror attack orchestrated by Pakistan based elements, be it in Uri or Pulwama, there has been violent retribution by Modi Government in terms of surgical strike and the Balakot strike. Similar strikes across the border were conducted in Myanmar too to avenge ambush on a convoy of Indian Army by Myanmar-based insurgent group NSCN(K). This apart, over the last seven years nearly, Indian Security Forces wiped out more than a thousand hardcore terrorists and their commanders operating in the Kashmir valley, neutralised numerous terror cells and modules, and foiled countless infiltration bids by terror groups from across the border.

In fact, one of the biggest achievements of Modi Government in the realm of confronting terrorism is the alteration of the counterterror response mechanism. Through the surgical strikes across the LOC into Pakistani terror launching pads, executed by Indian Army Special Forces in 2016, and the deep penetration air strikes by Indian Air Force jets on terror training units in Balakot in 2019, located in the strategic depth of Pakistan, post Uri and Pulwama terror attacks respectively, India made it clear to Pakistan’s terror masterminds in Rawalpindi and Islamabad, that henceforth, any major terror attack on India executed by Pakistan based terror outfits would result in violent retribution by India. In other words, Pakistan would henceforth have to pay a heavy price for orchestrating major terror strikes in India, and that India would take the war on terror right into the heart of Pakistan, something that Pakistan never had anticipated in the past. The Indian Government thus made it amply clear to Pakistan that India has fundamentally changed under Modi’s tenure and that the legacy of the past of providing dossiers, futile complains to UN, talking about dialogues, listening to lectures from Pakistani celebrities on “Aman Ki Asha” while seeking Kashmir resolution, are a passe now.

Another key aspect of Modi Government’s counterterror architecture has been not just to neutralise terror commanders but to strike at the root of terrorism through dismantling of radicalisation and terror financing syndicates. While Jamaat-e-Islami Jammu and Kashmir was banned in 2019 for a period of five years under Section 3 of UAPA, a large number of money laundering syndicates operating in Kashmir, and which played a key role in terror financing, were unearthed and dismantled. Likewise, cross border trade across Line of Control was also suspended in 2019 by Ministry of Home Affairs because that route was being extensively used by terror syndicates for, ‘funneling of illegal weapons, narcotics and fake currency’. Surprisingly, since then, instances of stone pelting in Valley have significantly come down.

One would have to make a special mention of the tremendous effort of Modi Government through abrogation of Article 370 and Article 35A, followed by bifurcation of Ladakh from Jammu and Kashmir and making both of them Union Territories. Under the leadership of PM Modi, the stellar roles played by Union Home Minister Amit Shah and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, in making this a reality, deserve a special mention. Both through cross border strikes in terror breeding grounds of Pakistan, and through abrogation of Article 370, Modi Government called out the bluff of Pakistan which kept on threatening war, even a nuclear one, but could do nothing more than crying foul with loud whimpers.

Even though sporadic terror attacks cannot be ruled out in Jammu and Kashmir, but through dual action of striking at the heart of terror breeding and funding syndicates, abrogation of Article 370, reducing Hurriyat Conference to an irrelevant entity and through conducting of successful elections in the District Development Councils, Modi Government has charted a new destiny for Jammu and Kashmir, something that was unthinkable a decade back. Also, the days of iconising terror commanders like Burhan Wani, by a section of media is gradually getting over. Security Agencies have also started operationalising a new strategy for quiet burial of slain terrorists.

Key changes that were brought in some crucial laws in the second innings of Modi Government with Amit Shah as Union Home Minister, has paved the way for a more robust strengthening of counterterror architecture. This would help India combat terrorism in a more profound manner.

Among the key changes is that of the amendment of the UAPA that now allows the Union Home Ministry to designate not just organisations but also individuals as terrorists. In fact, one of the major flaws of the original UAPA law was that even though it gave powers to the State to ban organisations on account of terror related activities, it however did not empower the State to designate individuals involved with such organizations as terrorists. Therefore, once banned, elements behind a banned entity would simply open another organization with another name to carry on with the same activities. The amendments introduced by Union Home Minister Amit Shah and ratified by Parliament now allows individuals to be designated as terrorists.

Once the amendments were notified, terror masterminds like Masood Azhar, Dawood Ibrahim, Zakir-ur Rehman Lakhvi and Hafiz Saeed were designated as terrorists in India. Ironically all these years before these amendments, even as India was seeking UN to ban Masood Azhar or Hafiz Saeed, the lacunae in India’s own laws prevented it from designating the same individuals as terrorists in India.

Likewise, NIA Act too was amended in 2019 through which the ambit of National Investigation Agency was expanded to allow India’s lead counter terror investigation agency to take up investigation of those cases outside India. The relevance of this law emanates from the fact that with India’s expanding economic and geopolitical landscape, any kind of attack on Indian citizens, assets or interests abroad, is no less relevant than similar strikes on Indian citizens or assets within India, especially when the possibility of India’s adversaries targeting Indians abroad cannot be ruled out.

In the same league, the Government of India’s decision to allow NIA to investigate a wider array of organised crimes including human trafficking, smuggling of counterfeit currencies, production and sale of prohibited weapon systems, incidents of cyber terrorism and illegal activities that fall under the domain of Explosives Substances Act 1908, followed by empowering NIA to also investigate offences done under Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances (NDPS) Act, have long term positive implications as far as India’s fight against terrorism and hybrid war is concerned. It has to be understood that terrorism does not exist in vacuum or in isolation. It needs active financing and arsenal, which are often provided by syndicates running counterfeit currency trade, human trafficking trade and sellers of prohibited weapons. Unless those networks are rooted out, terrorism cannot be exterminated from its core. Therefore, the Modi Government’s decision to amend NIA Act was visionary.

Another key area where a considerable amount of activity can be witnessed is in the realm of modernisation of Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF). In August, 2017, it was reported that Government of India had approved a whopping Rs 31,748 crore for modernisation of Indian Coast Guard to augment capacity of Indian Coast Guard which has been on an expansion mode to take care of India’s humongous coastline spanning over 7500 km. Indian Coast Guard is striving to have in its fleet around 200 vessels and 100 aircrafts by 2025.

Since 2017, Government of India has also spent Rs 1054 crore for modernisation of seven Central Armed Police Forces namely BSF, CRPF, ITBP, CISF, SSB, NSG and Assam Rifles. Of this, Rs 500 crore was allocated to CRPF alone. From weapon systems, bullet proof vests and helmets, to vehicles, as well as surveillance and communication gadgets, there has been considerable augmentation in capacity building of CAPFs. Hindu Business Line had reported last year that 40,000 bullet proof jackets and 170 armored vehicles have been specifically sanctioned for CRPF by Union Home Ministry. In 2018, it was reported that more than 36,000 AK series assault rifles were procured by Government of India from Bulgaria, which was then proportionately distributed among the key Central Police Forces and select units of State Level Police Forces. Also, over the last few years, indigenously made assault rifles like Ghatak, Excalibur and Trichy Assault Rifles, and carbines like JVPC are being disbursed among the Central Police Forces and State Level Special Units. It is also expected that when the production of AK-203 assault rifles would start in India, in the near future, while catering to the demands of the armed forces, the demand of Central Police Forces for a quality assault rifle would be addressed too by equipping them with AK-203 series of rifles from the same factory.

Further, in 2018 it was reported that Government of India was procuring 141 Medium Bullet Proof Vehicles of which 100 were to be given to CRPF for application in the Valley and anti-Maoist Operations. This was followed by 20 vehilces to ITBP, 15 to Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) and six to CISF contingents deployed in Jammu and Kashmir.

It is also to be noted that in April, 2019, Government of India had specifically sanctioned Rs 613 crore for acquisition of mine protection vehicles, remotely operated vehicles and bullet proof jackets for central forces such as BSF, CRPF and NSG. Among notable induction in this case has been the heavily armored personnel carrier Renault Sherpa being now used by NSG, CRPF and CISF in select locations.

In the same league, even as BSF is set to acquire 436 mini and micro drones for border surveillance, and would also be acquiring a new range of anti-drone systems to counter the menace of Pakistan’s attempt of using drones to ship in explosives and weapons, reports indicate that Union Home Ministry has already started the process of extensively equipping ITBP with a new generation of UAVs, radars, V-SAT systems for better communication, bullet proof jackets, additional ATVs and Long Range Reconnaissance and Observation Systems (LORROS). Incidentally Government has also approved setting up of 47 new border outposts for ITBP. In January this year it was reported that CRPF has started the process to acquire more powerful A410 mini drones with higher endurance to be deployed in anti-Maoist operations. Reports also indicate how border guarding forces like SSB, are planning to use Geospatial Intelligence (GEOINT) and Geographical Intelligence Systems (GIS) for assessing any deviation or encroachments in borders along Nepal. SSB too now uses drones and In terms of manpower augmentation, approval has been given for substantial increase in force strength of most of the central police forces. While in 2016, Government of India approved raising of CISF’s manpower by a whopping 37,000 to become almost a 1.82 lakh strong force (up from 1.45 lakh), the 90,000 strong ITBP and 2.57 lakh strong BSF are in the process of raising around nine and six more battalions respectively. Also, in this month itself, Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) was given sanctions to raise 12 more battalions to take the manpower strength of SSB beyond the 1 lakh level.

Meanwhile, India’s elite National Security Guard, likewise has witnessed massive modernisation over the last few years, most of which though remain classified, and rightfully so. In terms of increasing its presence to reduce response time, apart from the existing four regional hubs in Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Hyderabad, Delhi headquarters and training unit in Manesar, all created earlier, a new regional hub at Gandhinagar, Gujarat was operationalised in 2018, while work is going on for another regional hub in Punjab, which is likely to come up in Pathankot. In late 2019, it was also reported that Government of India has decided to set up a Joint Counter Operation Centre in Punjab which would have representation from NSG, IB, RAW, BSF and Punjab Police. The aim is to thwart the attempts of Pakistan to foment unrest in Punjab. In the same league, apart from a brand new headquarter of NIA in Delhi, it now has 12 branches across India, apart from several camp offices.

NIA now has a dedicated focus on investigating Maoist activities and amassing of wealth by top leaders of Maoist groups. As per reports, a multi-disciplinary group of Union Home Ministry, comprising representatives from IB, ED, DRI, NIA, CBI, CBDT as well as State level intelligence units and CIDs, have been set up to investigate funding patterns of the Maoist groups and to check the same. In fact, days of soft-hand approach to deal with Maoists are over. Those who masquerade as ‘intellectuals’ and then used that freedom to foment hatred and give clarion call for ‘waging war against India’ are now fighting for bail. Gautam Navlakha is a classic example of that. In the realm of internal security too, the Modi Government has brought in a paradigm shift in India’s battle against terrorism. Many of these threats have instances of external involvement, which ranges from not just Pakistan’s support for terror groups, but also several NGOs allegedly getting funds from abroad for helping the anti-India activities by Maoists and other elements. Modi Government’s action against hundreds of such NGOs for suspicious activities is also laudable.

Overall, the hot pursuit to neutralise all kinds of present and anticipated threats must continue since those who cannot defeat India through conventional wars would continue their attempts to find newer means to hurt India. Therefore, even while strengthening the counterterror grid, India would have to find ways and means to deal with other methods that are increasingly being used to sabotage India’s economic prospects through mob violence and organised riots.

While the Government has been expanding the landscape of NIA, which is on course to have 12 branches across India, several camp level offices, along with a well-equipped headquarter in New Delhi, it is time for Government to take the quantum leap to set up full-fledged NIA offices in every State of India as soon as possible. Also, NIA needs to have its own Quick Reaction Teams (QRT) which may either be raised separately or a dedicated CRPF battalion may be raised and deputed specifically for NIA operations only. If NIA has to eventually emulate the FBI model of combating terrorism and associated organised crime syndicates, then it may either need its own, or a CRPF manned, dedicated QRT unit with permanent presence at every branch level NIA office.

The US Critical Infrastructure Protection Act of 2001 defines ‘critical infrastructure’ as ‘systems and assets, whether physical or virtual, so vital to the United States that the incapacity or destruction of such systems and assets would have a debilitating impact on security, national economic security, national public health or safety, or any combination of those matters’.

With India on course to become a $10 trillion economy by 2030-32, it is beyond anybody’s doubt that India’s adversaries would attempt to disrupt India’s growth through subversive activities, be it terrorism, large scale organized violence or cyber-attacks, that may be aimed at destroying or sabotaging India’s critical infrastructures in the realm of communications, critical manufacturing hubs, special economic zones, power generation, transmission and distribution infrastructures, refineries, critical transport infrastructures such as airports, key railway stations, commercial aircrafts and trains, commercial facilities and business centres, dams, emergency services, financial infrastructures, defense industrial bases, key government facilities, nuclear and space research stations or key national highways to name a few.

Keeping the threats in mind, there is a pertinent need for a strong law to not just stringently deal with saboteurs but also to make it compulsory for organisations in the realm of critical infrastructure sectors, to spend more on security, both physical and cyber, of their assets.

Threats to critical infrastructures need not be through terror attacks alone but also through organised mob violence, glimpses of which could be seen during anti-CAA riots when trains, railway stations and buses in large numbers were burnt down. Blocking of key arterial routes have severe on economic well-being of major cities and similarly destruction of critical assets like those of Indian Railways or ransacking of factories, can have huge negative impact on supply chain of key products, components, as well as on goodwill of a nation, and therefore should be firmly dealt with stringent punishment. The Critical Infrastructure Protection Act should also authorise the use of force for the sake of protecting systemically important critical infrastructures from subversive acts of terrorism, sabotage and organized mob violence.