Elections That Offered Much More Than Victories, Losses

The Bihar Assembly election 2020 was truly a multifaceted election. This was the first election in India amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, with 15-year incumbent government in defender’s role & young Tejashwi Yadav trying to make inroads in Bihar. Even though the Nitish-led alliance won the election with a slim margin there is much to speculate about this election.

This election was just after the USA presidential election in which handling of the pandemic was one of the main factors which Inter alia was going against the ruling Trump. Considering India’s Opposition taking potshots on Centre’s so-called mishandling, the ruling of India’s most backward state in favour of National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is a huge validation of Centre’s efforts in containing the virus & its relief package. Also, the comprehensive victory in State by-polls reposes faith in Prime Minister’s image.

There was a perception build by Delhi media about BJP president JP Nadda being a handpicked confidant of Modi-Shah, was seen as a defuse BJP chief with Shah still seen as de facto head. In this election Nadda took full responsibility of Bihar elections after Shah’s protracted battle with COVID-19. He campaigned extensively across Bihar, conducted meetings at booth level to ensure the high turnout & full preparedness, negotiating with Janata Dal (United) & other alliances. With BJP gaining 21 seats & downsizing the Nitish, Nadda has definitely sent a strong message across BJP cadre and also proved his selection to be right.

Tejashwi Yadav, youngest amongst the Lalu’s kids, an aspirational cricketer & an accidental entrant into a politics in 2015, has already seen extreme turbulences in last five years. First time heading the party into a regional election, he had a lot to chew, from negotiating with Congress & Left to standing against the humongous election machinery of BJP. He has gained a lot in this election and has definitely come out of his father’s shadow. Looking from hindsight, he’ll surely give a pat on his own back on the decision to add Left parties in grand alliance’s fold. Also, he’ll disdain the Congress, even more, considering their abysmal performance. Still, first time leading the party in the absence of Lalu & nearing a victory is quite a commendable effort. With this performance, he has definitely emerged as a man of the match.

Bihar in the past has witnessed bloody rivalry between CPI (ML) & upper-caste organisations. CPI (ML) liberation party which believed in armed rebellion against the bourgeoisie Indian State. Along all these years has softened their stand & started participating in the electoral politics back in the ’90s, having its base limited among the most backward castes in few constituencies in Magadh-Bhojpur belt. RJD handed them a handful of 19 seats & they have emerged victorious on 12 of them under the leadership of Dipankar Bhattacharya. Other Left parties such as CPI (M) & CPI have also bagged two seats each. This is a moment of jubilation for Leftist cadre & sympathisers across the nation.

Even after the letter bomb of 23 senior most Congress leaders raising the questions on Congress first family, party as whole or first family as their patron showed no signs of contesting elections seriously. Rahul Gandhi kept raising questions on national security & intricate challenges in front of the economy failed miserably to tantalise the voters. A State like Bihar in which party neither has a strong organisation nor a pan Bihar face was relying heavily on Tejashwi’s charisma to drag them beyond the finish line. Congress who had once upper-caste, SCs & Muslim vote bank in the 1970s, now, having lost its base of upper-castes & Dalits considerably to the BJP & other small State parties, was confident on winning Muslim dominated seats in Seemanchal. Where catching them off-guard Owaisi’s AIMIM bagged whopping five seats among which four are from Kishanganj Loksabha seat which Congress won in 2019 General elections. It seems that Congress has taken RJD down with its sinking boat.

Chirag Paswan-led LJP contested polls on 135 seats mostly against JD(U) has bagged only a solitary seat but played a spoilsport in JD(U)’s campaign. The party has dented JD(U) on 27 seats in a closely contested election.

Two states in which BJP played second fiddle to their alliance partners for a long time were Bihar & Maharashtra. In Bihar, it tried fighting on its own & failed miserably. In Maharashtra where its growth was spectacular in the post-Modi era, left the Shiv Sena red-faced. The animosity between two partners grew to such an extent that Shiv Sena joined arch-rival Congress to keep BJP away from power. The two BJP leaders who were the most baffled were the then CM Devendra Fadnavis & party’s Maharashtra in-charge Bhupendra Yadav. Both of them were chosen to frame campaign strategy in Bihar and to play pivotal roles in negotiations with allies. Having their tongues burnt in Maharashtra both of them were circumspect in taking any decisions viz-a-viz JD(U), Hindustan Awam Morcha(secular) & Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) and up to some extent LJP.

In this election PM was the lone saviour for crumbling ‘brand Nitish’. This shows how things have changed dramatically in the last ten years. Exactly a decade ago Nitish was seen as a contender for Prime Ministership having won Bihar with 2/3rds majority in 2010 polls. There was persistent rancour & insecurity about Modi in his mind which culminated in his exit from NDA in 2013 after BJP announced Modi as its Prime Minister face. Nitish simply lost his way since then. Even though he won the 2015 Bihar polls the brand Nitish was definitely on a downfall. With facing huge anti-incumbency, he was totally dependent on the magic of his past rival. PM conducted 12 rallies along with Nitish across the State. Changing the course of the election in NDA’s way, the persistent Modi euphoria was evident amongst the voters.

BJP toppled two Congress-led states by breaking its legislative party. It was its responsibility in both Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh to get most of the rebel MLA’s re-elected. BJP triumphed in Karnataka getting 12/14 in by-election less than a year ago. Now, it has repeated this performance in Madhya Pradesh by getting 19/28 in the recent by-polls. This message will resonate well amongst the fringe MLA’s of Rajasthan & Maharashtra. The victories in states like Telangana & Manipur corroborates that BJP is no longer a party confined to the Hindi heartland.

Key takeaways from this election are, even though NDA has won, the victory is not decisive. BJP will have remote control of the Bihar government. Modi is still a trusted face & BJP is still a number one party in the country.