Karnataka is one state where a triangular contest gives some interesting twists to the polity. It is also a state where the difference between winner and runner-up is less than 2 percent for last two assembly elections. It is also a State where the percentage of votes by major parties has been stable since 2004 [if we discount the aberration of 2013, where the traditional BJP vote was split between BJP and KJP.]
Karnataka came into existence by merging the areas of Bombay province, Mysore princely state, some area of Hyderabad princely state along with costal area. These areas still behave as sub-regions and show different political trends.
The dominant presence of Vokkaliga in Mysore region, Lingayat influence across the state and the SC ST areas define the contours of battle.
The 2008 election saw the emergence of BJP in Karnataka. But the subsequent political issues again relegated the BJP. Therefore the main Challenge before the BJP was to consolidate their position, to do the politics of adding friends. It seems they have done it successfully first by taking the KJP back into fold and absorbing all four MLAs as BJP candidates which practically a merger of the BSRCP with BJP. The influential leader of BSRCP B. Sriramulu and the Congress Chief Minister Siddaramaiah are in direct contest at Badami, the heritage town in Karnataka making it into a prestige fight of this election. Besides, the movement of small local leaders towards BJP is also creating vote shifts. For example Halady Srinivas Shetty, who won as an independent with a handsome margin in Kundapura is now BJP candidate there. K. Jaipal Reddy, who was an independent candidate in 2013 and ended up second to Congress, is now BJP candidate from Gauribidanaur.
The trends
2013 results show that BJP and COngress are main contenders across karnataka, while JDS fights with Congress in south Karnataka or what is called old Mysore region.
The Zilla Parishad and Panchayat polls suggest that the trend has continued.
The realignment of political forces show that every political camp is trying to get a breakthrough.
It is obvious that unless some party breaks the deadlock, a possible hung assembly is in waiting. To break the deadlock, some party needs to swing a few percent votes in its favor. Which party will be able to do it?
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