Prof Satish Kumar
The BRICS declaration is another victory of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Foreign Policy. After 73 days of Standoff, Bharat tried to hit hard on China-Pak nexus. The BRICS countries namely Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa strongly condemned and named in a declaration, for the first time, Pakistan-based terror groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (Let), Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and the Haqqani network. This is the same China which denied to name the Pakistan based terrorist organisations in the last BRICS summit held in Goa. The declaration said, “We reaffirm that those responsible for committing, organising, or supporting
terrorist acts must be held accountable,”. In fact, the statement did not refer to Pakistan by name; nor did it refer to “cross-border terrorism. But it is known to the world that India’s way of describing terrorism is pointing towards from Pakistan. The declaration expressed concern over “the security situation in the region and violence caused by the Taliban, ISIL/DAISH (Islamic State), the Al-Qaida and its affiliates, including Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Haqqani network, LeT, JeM, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and Hizb ut-Tahrir.” Briefing reporters in Xiamen, Preeti Saran, secretary (east), in the ministry of external affairs, underlined that “for the first time, specific listing of terror organisations has been made (in the BRICS declaration)”.
The China-Pakistan nexus has many folds, with the time and space it has become intense and Bharat specific. From Nuclear tests to Chinas Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Bharat was in the centre of their gravity. In fact, a
dysfunctional, debt-ridden Pakistan gives China greater leeway to strategically penetrate it. Having deployed thousands of Chinese army troops in Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (POJK), especially Gilgit-Baltistan, since at least 2010, Beijing has been working to turn Pakistan into its land corridor to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean through the so-called “one belt, one road” project. Both China and Pakistan have used very specific nomenclature to show the world that they are made for each other. China’s nexus with Pakistan has been likened by Beijing to the closeness between lips and teeth. Beijing has also been calling Pakistan its “irreplaceable all-weather friend”. The two often boast of their “iron brotherhood”. India’s primary concern is related to the CPEC which passes through POJK, a region over which Bharat claims sovereignty but which has been under Pakistan’s occupation since 1947. The script of friendship was written with geo-political gains and losses. China successfully
eliminated two layers of buffer zones with Bharat and on the other hand pushed deep into the territory of India with the help of Pakistan. Pakistan’s major stake is Kashmir and China’s major concern is Tibet. Their mutual interests are matching to trouble India. PM Modi is changing the rules of world chess of Geo-politics. Now BRICS meeting may be a turning point for new set up of World Order.
Supremacy Challenged
The much hyped Chinese supremacy has been challenged. Bharat-America-Japan Triangle is a new set-up which has emerged with a strong cause against China. The systematic change in the foreign policy brought by PM Modi indicates further structural change. If the events are weaved in sequence, clarity of thought with action is visible. As the PM he started a journey with Bhutan and moved to Nepal. This was totally unlike the PMs of Bharat. Now post-Doklam scenario gauged from surgical strike to joint military exercises with Japan and East Asian countries narrates a change of mood.
Till the Cold War, China was the most talkative in creating a multi-polar world. As it found itself powerful and based on solid ground, changed its mood and started discarding all
multi-forum organisations. It also tendered lukewarm importance to International treaties. On the contrary India continued to voice for multi-polar world. Perhaps BRICS proved to be the defining moment for starting a fresh venture of Multi-polarity where Chinese ever-expanding clout would be synchronised. It will also provide larger space for India to maneuver in the world politics.
Now things look positive for Bharat. Can PM Modi think of changing a fundamental error committed by the first Prime Minister by declaring Tibet as an integral part of China? Since 1954 things turned to be in favour of China. Jawaharlal Nehru and KN Pannikar shaped India’s Tibet policy shortly after Independence. The critical question in 1950 was who should or could occupy the strategic buffer region between the two? From 1946 to 1951, the Tibet policy of Nehru and his associates reflected policy of the British: treating Tibet as an autonomous buffer state between India and China, recognising Chinese suzerainty but not sovereignty over Tibet, and protecting Tibet’s autonomy by recognising its treaty making powers, especially in relations to India. Thus, in March 1947 a Tibetan delegation was invited to the Asian Relations Conference in Delhi. In September 1947, the Indian Government assured Lasha that all previous treaty commitments, that is Anglo-Tibetan treaties and
conventions would be respected. In 1950s PLA marched into Tibet. India became a victim of Chinese game. Nehru committed another blunder by declaring Tibet as an integral part of China. This has created all the
differences. The challenges and woes for India started after that. The current Doklam standoff was product of Nehriuvian blunder.
Nehru and Indira Gandhi scoffed at the idea of buffer zone and balance of power. Such complex policy was not only dictated by geopolitics; but it was the most economical way of ensuring security along the 3,200 km Himalayan boundary also. Nehru took U-turn.
Changing the Diplomacy
Almost after 70 years Bharat under the leadership of Modi is capable of changing the track of Indian diplomacy and its positioning in the world politics. It looks possible and desirable as well. We are near the goalpost to reformulate the rules of dealing with China. If China does not accord One Bharat Policy, we may do the same of challenging the One China Policy. It has reasons to do so. This will sort out the infesting China-Pakistan nexus and anti-India wave which has been inflamed by China in Indian subcontinent.
Time to Assert
The timing is perfect for action. First, Chinese economy is slowing down. Chinese population is aging at an unprecedented pace. China’s working age population peaked in 2012, the medium age will rise rather abruptly to 49 by 2050, and national debt at 300 percent of GDP. In contrast, India’s working age population will rise till 2050, enabling higher growth rates and eventually overtaking the United States in terms of GDP.
Second, Chinese economy is export driven. India is a big market for Chinese goods, especially in IT sector. Chinese electronics and IT products have made. In the hardware and telecom market. Genuine security concerns have arisen regarding the protection of data and personal information of millions of Indian users traversing over the networking
equipment. The second aspect relates to trade imbalance between India and China, which has already swelled to USD 51 billion. Electronics and IT products are a key constituent of Chinese exports to India, estimated around USD 22 Million. With a slowing economy, which fundamentally is export driven, China cannot afford any such adverse impact on its electronics manufacturing industry. At the same time, other countries may follow India’s decision to initiate similar reviews of Chinese-made electronics products.
Chinese thinking since ancient times advocates mitigating a threat by eliminating it. Thus, during the period 1950-85, the PRC opted to use force eight times. China’s grand strategy encompasses three concise objectives: safeguarding sovereignty, maintaining stability and sustaining economic progress. Sovereignty implies, extended one China which covers India’s three states. Post 1962, there have been border incidences between India and Chinese militaries; Nathu La in 1967 and Sumdurang Chu two decades later. In the recent past too, the Despang Plateau and the Chumar-Demchok area witnessed face offs in April 2013 and September 2014, respectively, with the latter intriguingly coinciding with President Xi Jinping’s visit to India. China is a very smart country; it looks adamant against the weak but becomes malleable aginst the stronger. The post Doklam diplomacy is in favour of Bharat to maneuver. The major challenge for Bharat is Chinese overwhelming support to Pakistan. The Pakistan policy is full of India baiting. The nexus between two has to be curbed. PM Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed on that, more must be done to improve mutual trust and avoid border standoff.
The message of building trust between Bharat and China could be gauged on China-Pakistan Nexus. So far the Chinese words could not be trusted. The new leadership of China is different from Deng Xia who focused on national economy; the current leadership is keener to outstretch the political power. China believes in dismantling the opponents. It has applied the same tactics against others that were used quite often against India. Bow it is falling flat. Pakistan’s adventure has to be clipped. It is only possible by cutting the cardinal link between China and Pakistan. Bharat under Modi would be ready with possible actions if words of Dragon are not converted into action. Time will tell whether BRICS declaration was
merely a showcase or China really meant to mend the ways of Pakistan.
(The writer is Head Political Science, Central University of Haryana, Mahendargarh)
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