The internal reality in Communist China is not as organised and healthy in economic, social, and political terms. The so-called ‘peaceful rise’ is neither peaceful nor a rise
Vinay Joshi
A majority of Indians think about China as cohesive, well organised, Communist ideology driven mighty nation with world’s leading armed forces, huge industrial infrastructure and world trade and commerce powerhouse. Since the Doklam military standoff on India’s northern frontier started, Indian writers and major chunk in media have launched a bombarding mission by throwing comparative statistical data on India and China’s armed forces and economic indices subtly and openly, only to convince people of India and Indian leadership, that war with China would be a misadventure and China would easily crush India in
military conflict. Few media houses went a step ahead by publishing PsyWar news stories from Chinese media aimed at psychologically destabilizing Indians. One such news of “Thousands of tons of war logistics moved to Tibet” has been published by noted media houses, with photographs of PLA trucks moving on roads. The report was totally false and Indian intelligence agencies flatly denied any such movement of PLA.
After confronting the conventional perception about “China is Dreamland” notion we have decided to make social, political and military audit of China, to find out the reality without keeping any prejudice in mind. We will analyze the issues which are creating tensions in society, in Communist Party and in Military against Jinping regime.
Economic Disparity and Uneven Geographical Distribution of wealth is problem all over the world, severe in developing world and most severe in war ravaged, feminine and natural
disaster stricken third world countries. Political systems are much to blame for the situation. But in country like China, which is governed by single party, boasting its Communist ethos and fundamentals of social equality the disparity is striking and shocking too.
In 2016 institute affiliated to Peking University has conducted extensive research on wealth distribution in Chinese society, which has stunned sociologist, political analysts and Chinese policy makers. It revealed that disparity in income, wealth and assets of households in China are getting increasingly severe with every passing day. The findings are based on survey by China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). The conclusions are result of survey of 14,960 households spread across 160 regions and localities of 250 cities in China. Besides inequality in economic indices, the situation of educational opportunities to all and public health services are also pathetic, the report says.
Most dangerous finding of the report is just one per cent of families possess about one-third of China’s total wealth, and 25 per cent of households have only one per cent wealth.
As a result, people in rural China losing faith on government and labor protests are becoming common which has worried the Communist Party. Geographical Financial Inequality in China is more worrisome which is likely to prove potentially turbulent issue in near future. The coastal region of China is industrially developed reaping huge benefits of its trade and industrial transactions with foreign countries. But masses leaving in hinterland are deprived of means to generate wealth are miles away from prosperity. These people living in rural China were backbone of Communist revolution in Mao’s era.
China’s east coast is richest among all and wealthiest of all. To fill up the gap between east and west China has pushed ahead the infrastructural projects in backward western regions to build roads, railways so that commercial activities and industrial atmosphere could be developed in the region.
The ambitious One Belt One Road (OBOR) project is partly aimed at connecting its impoverished western region to central Asia and West Asia so that developed Eastern China would connect its neighbors through Western Chinese provinces boosting their economies. But reality is that, it would take years to see OBOR getting developed and delivering its objectives.
The Labor Volcano
Labor Protests across mining and industrial regions of China are more worrying for Chinese government as unlike to democratic countries labor unions, labor strikes and protests are strictly prohibited in China and seen as taboo. High handed crackdown and mass detentions are possible in such cases. But after slowdown in world economy and sharp decline in demand for coal followed by environmental concerns regarding coal use has triggered massive unemployment in coal mining. The unemployment has reached to such an extent that Anyuan, the historic coal district of China where Mao Zedong architected historic labor strike in coal mines in 1922, is ones again experiencing turbulence due to closure of five of eight coal mines in the region. The labors which are unemployed are getting just $70/month from mining companies which is not sufficient to meet the ends.
Lack of Labor Laws, uncertainty in employment, heavy working hours, and random sacking is common in Chinese industries which is fanning tremendous anti-government sentiments among working classes.
After phenomenal growth and soaring GAD consistently for two decades Chinese economy is slowing down resulting into nationwide labor protests and strikes since 2015. Business houses are putting indefinite hold on salaries, perks and axing staff without notice, sudden closure of units adding more fuel in anger in working masses. As a result of absence of labor friendly laws as well as dark future in job market working masses preparing for big fight in future.
In 2016 labors employed by North Eastern China”s biggest government owned Longmay Mining Group witnessed surprise protests against provincial governor in Beijing to raise unpaid salaries issue. It was unprecedented as such protest against government is bound to invite fury and arrests and imprisonment is certain.
Hong Kong based Labor Rights Group, China Labor Bulletin has recorded almost 2,700 strikes and protests in 2015 alone. The figure is double than year 2014. With tremendous uncertainty in industrial and commercial atmosphere, the labor fury may erupt into uncontrollable
volcano which may burn China
Jinping’s Campaign
Since assuming power in 2012, President Xi Jinping has launched high power campaign to weed out corruption within Communist Party leaders in China. The campaign has not spared even retired leaders, which do not hold any official position but still wields influence.
So far Former Chinese president Hu Jintao’s top aide Ling Jihua, former vice-chairman of powerful Central Military Commission Xu Caihou, former China security chief Zhou Yongkang, former head of a powerful military committee Guo Boxiong are prosecuted and awarded lengthy jail terms.
Bo Xilai, former party chief of Chongqing has been prosecuted for embezzlement of funds and accepting bribes. His wife found guilty in murder of British tycoon Neil Heywood. After that Bo removed from office and put on trial, he repeatedly denied the charges and still punished for life.
But most significant and shocking arrest came just two weeks ago, when Sun Zhengcai, 53-year-old leader, member of high powered 25 member politburo and in the eyes of many observers, future president of China. He was party chief of Chongqing- Yangtse port city. He was youngest member of politburo and had huge active working political career ahead. After arrest of dynamic Bo Xilai Sun was inducted in politburo.
With abrupt sacking of Sun, Xi has stirred hornets’ nest and fear psychosis struck ruling Communist leaders. Sun’s prosecution has left behind many within and outside China, smelling Jinping’s march towards absolute power, something which even Mao Zedong never had! With purge of Sun, the bloodless procedure of leadership might not happen in future, which is characteristic in Chinese Communists.
If Jinping shows more signs of his plans towards wresting total control over CPC and PLA, the chances of open revolt or coup against Xi can’t be ruled out. Many within party and PLA are sulking with anger as a result of his ruthless anti-corruption drive throwing many heavyweights behind the bars.
Xi’s Control over PLA
In April 2016, Jinping took control of China’s all armed forces. As a party’s general secretary
he was already chairman of Central Military Commission. But his new orders have placed him at the helm of Joint Operations Command Center, which is newly formed structure after restructuring of Chinese armed forces. China rearranged its armed forces in the line of US Armed forces, which are restructured under Goldwater-Nichols reforms in 1986. In new structure all three services are put under single commander, called as Theatre Command Structure. It gives more efficient and fast use of potentials of all three services.
The motive behind the move is to effectively control, any possible move by PLA against Xi himself. The geographical economic disparity in China as discussed above has posed real threat for Xi’s regime. As the PLA mainly consists of troops from interior China which is still far from reaping benefits of China’s economic surge. The steep gap between economies of wealthy East Coast and poor West hinterlands has forced Xi to take drastic steps. As a operational head of PLA during war, now Xi can monitor through his trusted hands; each and every movement of PLA, which will make it highly impossible for anyone to think of coup!
Gutian Congress Spirit
Within Xi’s 5 years as leader he has purged almost 1600 PLA officers and the numbers are piling up every day. He dismantled PLA’s business empire by promulgating law resulting in to military losing control of 15,000 business, commercial enterprises in a single shot of decree. These
enterprises were grazing grounds for PLA commanders, with virtually no control and audit systems, making them almost owners of these businesses. Such immense financial powers were certainly biggest threat for Presidential power.
As per 1929 Gutian Congress invited by Mao, the principle of “Party Above Military” was crux of Chinese Communist Rule. But in due course, The Gutian Congress Spirit waned away, as there was no leader to match the aura, charisma and confidence of Mao. With Xi at top spot, he planned reestablishing The Gutian Congress Spirit and took first drastic step putting him as head of PLA War operations. The move sent stern message to all within PLA. Simultaneously Xi maintained heat over corrupt PLA commanders by nitpicking rotten mangoes and throwing them behind the bars, to thwart move by any hawkish general to topple him from the chair.
All three pillars of Communist Chinese society, i.e. common Chinese working class, Communist leadership and PLA commanders are in deep trouble due to economic uncertainty, high handed disciplinary actions and anti-corruption moves respectively by Xi Jinping.
So it seems that, with single social or economic flashpoint, the whole China might witness eruption of volcano threatening Communist rulers of China and especially Xi Jinping. The Indian enthusiast, observers, researchers and especially Indian media must focus on these issues rather than buying Chinese propaganda rhetoric in totality. At least it would help them in restoring their waning credibility!
The writer is Director of Institute for Conflict Research and Resolution, Guwahati )
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