Mithila has a rich cultural heritage and its place in history rests chiefly on the contributions made to various systems of Bharatiya philosophies and its development in other Bharatiya languages. Comprising of 43 Assembly seats, Mithila region will be a decisive factor in coming Bihar Assembly Elections 2015.
Not satisfied with the inclusion of Maithli language in Eighth Schedule of Bharatiya Constitution in 2002 and in the interim Constitution of Nepal in 2007, some educated class demands even the separate State as they have good assessment of number of people of Mithila in print and electronic media. Is it a real base, no, but it is a fact that Mithila is the backbone of Bihar educated class. The people are vociferous in the national capital and resultantly, think that Patna is always under their reach.
The politics of Mithila can even be understood in Delhi. If Kejriwal without performing well aligned with Nitish Kumar and still there is a good popularity of PM Narendra Modi, the people of Mithila in Delhi are obviously giving the mandate to BJP and they are influencing people back home. If the election dates coincide with the dates of Chhath Puja, these people will leave no stone unturned against Lalu-Nitish duo.
After Lalit Narayan Mishra and Jagannath Mishra, this region has been playing a role of king maker. Like Tirhut region, it is also supporting the parties corresponding to the political air. However, there is a comparatively peaceful caste line demarcation in this region but Brahmin, Yadav and Muslims are mainly setting up the tone and tamper of the politics here.
In 2010 Assembly election, JD (U) won 22 seats out of total 43 seats and BJP got 12 seats. In this strong wave election in favour of BJP-JD (U) alliance, RJD got 9 seats in alliance with LJP. In 2014 Parliamentary election, BJP was ahead in 19 Assembly segments and LJP part of NDA won in 4 Assembly segments. JD (U) was ahead in 5 seats, RJD in 9 seats and Congress had presence in 6 Assembly segments largely because of Pappu Yadav’s wife.
|There is a comparatively peaceful caste line demarcation in Mithila region but Brahmins, Yadavs and Muslims are mainly setting up the tone and tamper of the politics here. In the case of BJP vs all, it has become almost certain that huge support base of JD (U) will be transferred to BJP.|
Mithila has a rich cultural heritage and its place in history rests chiefly on the contributions made to various systems of Bharatiya philosophies and its development in other Bharatiya languages. One of the biggest reasons of underdevelopment in the region is unequal development, resulting in the population being divided into elite and masses. The social justice euphoria of Lalu Yadav and Mahadalit empowerment slogan of Nitish Kumar did not bridge the gap. They even did not check the destruction of agriculture and even human life by floods. It has been coupled with the weak educational infrastructure and no job opportunity. It led the majority of area’s youth to relocating themselves for education and earning.
Earlier JD (U) had some strategy to get balance between Brahmins and Mahadalits because Nitish Mishra, son of Jagannath Mishra had been associated with it. He had good social engineering among Mahadalit castes. But now he is with Jitan Ram Manjhi who is supporting NDA. Upper Caste voters are totally against Nitish Kumar for his poor performance. This factor and Jitan Ram Manjhi alliance with NDA have taken JD (U) at the historic low in this region. It will be interesting to see the direction of vote shift from JD (U), which will give better opportunity for BJP because there is no chance of shifting these votes to others because all others including RJD and Congress are now alligned with Nitish Kumar. In this case of BJP vs all, it has become almost certain that huge support base of JD (U) will be transferred to BJP only.
BJP has certain challenges including containing the personal ambitions of its local leaders and proper use of its old or new leaders in this election. If Hukm Dev Narayan Yadav, Kirti Azad and Nityanand Rai mitigate the caste supports of RJD, Jitan Ram Manjhi, Ramvilas Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha balance some supports level of JD (U), BJP can sweep in most of the constituencies in this region. The role of Pappu Yadav particularly in Madhepura and Supaul areas will be very crucial.
In Samastipur, it will be crucial to see the real level alliance between LJP and BJP because both Ramvilas Paswan and Nityanand Rai belong to Hajipur, resultantly natural problem of cooperation may arise. BJP has to strike balance among its own workers. Some people are still demanding the due reverence of Late Tarakant Jha. The allegations of ignoring young active workers should be mitigated. For example Haribhushan Thakur ‘Bachol’ in Bisfi constituency of Madhubani was active BJP worker and one time independent MLA but now he is in JD (U) because of alleged ignorance by the Party.
Here election will be fought at local level too and in this case, BJP has to get good support by local leaders. If Kirti Azad can retain BJP supports in those areas BJP will do wonders again.