By Vaidehi Nathan
It took the Registrar General of India four years to prepare the Census 2001 report. But the UPA government took only 48 hours to “set right” the figures and projections of the report. In just two days, the Census Commissioner, under Congress pressure altered the figures of the Muslim rate of growth by juggling statistics from one table to another. Magically, the Muslims, who were reported to be growing at the rate of 36 per cent, actually had a growth rate that was slower than before. It is another matter that even then, their rate of growth is far ahead of the Hindus.
World over, Muslims multiply at supersonic rates in countries where they are in a minority. However, the minorities in Islamic countries shrink by the day, till the non-Muslim population becomes almost non-extinct. The classic examples are our two neighbours—Pakistan and Bangladesh. Hindus have been driven away, converted or killed, bringing their number to a miniscule.
In India the Muslims are bound only by Shariat. They choose to be governed by their religious codes. The population growth differing on religious lines is a warning to the nation of the dangers of not having a uniform population policy and civil code. The latest Census report could in fact trigger a population increase at a faster pace, instead of the slowing down it had shown in the past decade. This would spell disaster for our resources, our policies and the economy and security of the nation.
While the “abnormal” growth of the Muslim population in India has grabbed a lot of attention, some important demographic changes occurring in some north-eastern states are receiving little notice. Nagaland now has 90 per cent Christian population, followed by Mizoram with 87 per cent and Meghalaya, 70 per cent. It is to be noted that the birth rate in these states has not risen drastically, pointing to a high rate of religious conversions.
With the Census 2001 report withdrawn, to be replaced with the “corrected” version coming under the Home Ministry, following the controversy over the Muslim growth rate, comparative figures are not available to check the growth rate of this third largest minority group in India in other pockets in various states, where intense conversion activities have been on for years now.
According to Census 1991, only in Arunachal Pradesh the Hindus were growing at a faster rate than the other communities. Even this trend seems to have changed in the state. This would also point to the influx of ‘outside’ population. The case of north-east is most sensitive, as it lies on the border, open to manipulation. Also the political, economic and religious disturbances could spell trouble for the nation itself.
The Census is one of the largest human contact programme in the world. In the West the numbers of births outside hospitals are minimum. Hence most of the births are recorded. In China, birth and death are notified by the citizens at the designated offices (it is a punishable offence not to do so). In India, however, though it is mandatory for registration of births and deaths, this is not followed. The certificates of birth and death are demanded only in urban schools and government offices. That is the reason why the head count of people in India is done by human contact. Though technology has been introduced at the level of processing of statistics, it is very much the human labour that gives the input.
According to Census 2001, Hindus have grown at the rate of 20.3 per cent, the Christians by 22.6 per cent, the Muslims by 36 per cent (revised 29.3) and Sikhs by 18.2 per cent. In absolute percentage terms, Hindus are now 80.5 per cent of the population. The Hindu growth rate has declined by nearly 5 per cent. They were growing at the rate of 25.1 per cent during 1981-91. The Muslims form 13.4 per cent of the population and the Christians 2.3 per cent. In mean numbers, there are 827 million Hindus, 138 million Muslims, 24 million Christians and 19 million Sikhs.
Some of the most disturbing aspects of the Census 2001 report are the steeply declining male-female ratio in the Sikh community, the relatively lower levels of literacy among Muslims and the low female literacy rate among Hindus (53.2 %) and Muslims (50.1 %). In a healthy society, female outnumber the male per 1,000 population. In the religion-wise break-up, only among Christians the female population is more than the per 1,000 male population. It is to be noted here that Christian population is concentrated in Kerala and the north-eastern states. In both these cultures, the woman holds a strong position in both family and society. Matrilineal system was quite common in both Kerala and the various communities in the north-east.
Among the Sikhs, the number of females per 1,000 male population has declined to 893. This indicates a pre-determined elimination of girls, probably at the early stage of conception and pregnancy as the Human Resource Index in India has not shown any hike in the rate of female deaths. Among Hindus too, the number of females per 1,000 male is not too healthy, at 931. The national average is 933 female per 1,000 male population.
Though in the past few decades, the Census has collected data on religion, it is for the first time that a separate annexure was issued by the Registrar General’s office. This report also had details of occupation and labour distribution among the states. The Census 2001 had a fairly detailed questionnaire, which could help the policy planners and the implementing agencies in addressing plans to specific target groups, in the country. But the report has received attention for all wrong reasons and there is very little hope that these innovative initiatives would receive their due attention.
