It is almost certain that Mamata Banerjee may contest 2026 Assembly election by not from one but from two seats. This move by Mamata Banerjee is not just to strengthen the party, but it’s her compulsion to continue her political career. Despite losing the Nandigram Assembly seat in the 2021, Mamata Banerjee took oath as the Chief Minister. If she loses her election this time too like Nandigram in 2021 it could create a difficult situation for her within the party.
The emerging political situation in the State and Mamata Banerjee’s defeat in Nandigram in the 2021 Assembly elections are two huge political shocks for her. Mamata Banerjee has not yet recovered from her Nandigram political shock and this time she may contest the election from another seat besides Bhawanipur Assembly seat. There is no possibility of Nandigram being the second seat for Mamata Banerjee besides Bhawanipur.
Despite BJP winning fewer seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in West Bengal compared to 2019, Mamata Banerjee’s political troubles have increased. While the BJP won 77 seats in the 2021 Assembly elections, it managed to gain a lead in 91 Assembly constituencies in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. This means that the BJP has succeeded in increasing its support base.
After the Lok Sabha election results, it seems that contesting the upcoming Assembly elections from two seats instead of one has become a necessity for Mamata Banerjee. In the Lok Sabha elections, Mamata Banerjee’s party, the All India Trinamool Congress, was ahead of the BJP by only 8297 votes in the Bhawanipur Assembly constituency. This was despite the fact that the CPI(M) got 14006 votes in this Assembly constituency in the Lok Sabha elections. Mamata Banerjee fears that the votes of the CPI(M) and BJP are anti-incumbency votes against her regime and that these two voter groups can unite to defeat her in the upcoming Assembly elections.
The performance of the All India Trinamool Congress in the Bhawanipur Assembly constituency in the Lok Sabha elections was quite disappointing. In the 2021 Assembly elections, the All India Trinamool Congress won the Bhawanipur assembly seat by margin of 28,719 votes against the BJP. However, after being defeated in Nandigram by Suvendu Adhikari, to retain her Chief Minister’s chair, Mamata Banerjee contested the by-election in the Bhawanipur Assembly seat and defeated the BJP’s Priyanka Tibrewal. Despite that the All India Trinamool Congress’s poor performance in the Lok Sabha elections has deeply troubled Mamata Banerjee and she may even decide to relinquish the Bhawanipur seat in the upcoming Assembly elections. Not only is that but by her defeat in Nandigram in 2021, Mamata Banerjee is certain to contest from two Assembly constituencies this time.
The AITC party’s performance in the Nandigram Assembly constituency in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections is also internally weakening Mamata Banerjee. Nandigram Assembly seat lies within Tamluk Lok Sabha constituency. In the 2021 Assembly elections, out of the seven Assembly seats under this constituency, the All India Trinamool Congress won on five seats while the BJP won on rest two seats. However, in the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP led in all seven Assembly segments under the Tamluk Lok Sabha constituency. In the Nandigram Assembly seat, the BJP was ahead of the All India Trinamool Congress by over 10,000 votes. Therefore, Mamata Banerjee is no longer in a position to take the risk of contesting from the Nandigram Assembly seat any more.
Another problem for Mamata Banerjee is the deletion of fake or illegal voters’ names from the electoral roll in the Bhawanipur Assembly constituency. Until January 2025, there were 2,06,295 voters in the Bhawanipur Assembly constituency, which has now decreased to 1,61,509. This indicates that the names of 44,786 voters have been removed from the electoral roll in the Bhawanipur Assembly constituency, which is approximately 21.7 percent of the total voters. This change has further upset Mamata Banerjee. The entire Trinamool Congress party is quite afraid and frightened about their victory due to the electoral revision not only in this constituency but also in other constituencies of the West Bengal too.
