Bharat

Bihar Election Results 2025: Factors that led to NDA Victory — When chemistry met arithmetic

The resounding victory of the NDA in the Bihar Election 2025 was shaped by a powerful blend of political chemistry and caste arithmetic, backed by flawless coordination and a sharply focused campaign

Published by
WEBDESK

From flawless seat-sharing and strategic reminders of the Lalu-era ‘jungle raj’ to a decisive surge of women voters and the combined appeal of Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar, the alliance executed a meticulously crafted campaign

Smooth seat sharing

When the Mahagathbandhan was fighting over seat sharing, the NDA managed to share seats flawlessly, which played a key role in smooth campaigning without any controversy. The alliance comprised BJP, JD(U), LJP (Ram Vilas), HAM(S) and RLM. The BJP and JD(U) evenly contested 101 seats each. Smaller allies like the LJP (Ram Vilas) contested 29 seats, while HAM(S) was given six seats.

Reminding Lalu’s Jungle Raj

The Developmental issue was part of the NDA campaign, but the BJP-led NDA reminded people of the era of ‘Jungle Raj’ during Lalu’s period, a term associated with lawlessness during the Lalu-Rabri era (1990-2005). This law-and-order scare reminded voters of the chaotic and violent past under RJD’s Lalu-Rabari regime, contrasting it with the NDA’s promise of stability and governance. Despite Bihar witnessing its most peaceful elections ever with zero repolls or violent incidents — a dramatic turnaround from previous decades — the Jungle Raj rhetoric struck a chord with many voters wary of instability.

Women voters

As per analysts, Women played a decisive role in the NDA’s electoral sweep, with historic voter turnout gaps revealing women voted 10-20 percentage points higher than men in many districts such as Supaul, Kishanganj, and Madhubani. NDA’s extensive schemes for women, including schemes for self-help groups, livelihood support, and social security, energised this vital demographic, giving them hope in the alliance. Nitish Kumar’s efforts to empower women, coupled with the BJP’s national outreach, resonated deeply with female voters who perceived the NDA as a champion of their aspirations and safety.

Modi-Nitish as a strong face

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a credible figure in the country, strengthened the NDA with Nitish Kumar as a non-corrupt and trustworthy leader. Nitish’s governance record on infrastructure and welfare, combined with his image as a firm leader capable of giving stability to Bihar, has been a key factor. It reinforced voter trust. The synergy between Nitish’s JD(U) and Narendra Modi created a robust front that could appeal to diverse electoral groups and attracted people across various castes, especially the youth.

Perfect caste arithmetic

Caste plays the most decisive role in Bihar’s politics. Hence, NDA, like in the past, did the perfect caste arithmetic to bring leaders across all the castes into its pocket. NDA consolidated the upper castes, OBC and others through the BJP, while Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) secured a strong base among Kurmis and EBCs, which constitute about 36 per cent of Bihar’s population. Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), Hindustani Awam Morcha, and Rashtriya Lok Morcha increased the NDA’s Dalit and backward caste, making it a diverse and strong coalition representing every section of society.

Share