China’s economic slowdown deepened in August, with a range of key indicators underperforming expectations, highlighting persistent weakness in domestic demand and the ongoing effects of Beijing’s campaign against industrial overcapacity. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics released showed that multiple sectors of the economy are struggling to maintain momentum, raising concerns about the country’s growth trajectory.
Retail sales in August increased by only 3.4 per cent compared to the same period last year, falling short of analysts’ forecasts of 3.9 per cent and marking a decline from July’s 3.7 per cent growth. Industrial production also lost pace, rising 5.2 per cent year-on-year, the slowest rate in twelve months and lower than expectations of 5.7 per cent. Fixed-asset investment, which includes spending on infrastructure, manufacturing, and property, rose just 0.5 per cent in the first eight months of the year, the weakest performance for the period since 2020.
Deflationary pressures have compounded the slowdown, with the Consumer Price Index falling 0.4 per cent year-on-year in August. Prices of essential goods, including pork and vegetables, dropped sharply by 16.1 per cent and 15.2 per cent, respectively. At the factory level, the Producer Price Index fell 2.9 per cent, suggesting that lower input costs are not translating into higher production or consumption. Falling prices threaten to discourage both consumer spending and business investment, placing additional stress on the broader economy.
The labour market also shows signs of strain. Urban unemployment climbed to 5.3 per cent in August, up from 5.2 per cent in July and 5 per cent in June. Rising joblessness, combined with weakening domestic demand, adds to the vulnerability of the Chinese economy.
The property sector has been particularly hard hit, with investment in real estate dropping 12.9 per cent in the first eight months of the year. Sales of new commercial buildings fell 4.7 per cent, with 573.04 million square metres sold, signaling ongoing weakness in one of the key drivers of China’s economic growth. While investment in high-tech and advanced industries continues to grow, the gains in these areas have not offset the overall slowdown. Spending on information services jumped 34.1 per cent, and aerospace manufacturing increased by 28 per cent, indicating that government-supported and technologically advanced sectors are performing better than traditional industries.
Exports offered some relief, rising 4.8 per cent in August and 6.9 per cent over the first eight months, largely driven by mechanical and electrical goods, which accounted for more than 60 per cent of shipments. Trade with Belt and Road partner countries expanded 5.4 per cent. However, imports grew only 1.7 per cent in August and remained down 1.2 per cent for the year, reflecting subdued domestic consumption and weak demand for foreign goods.
Fragile recovery and mounting vulnerabilities in China’s economy
The slowdown comes at a fragile time for China’s economy. Global supply chains remain disrupted following earlier US tariffs, and Europe is facing stagnation in growth. Weak domestic demand in China could reverberate across international markets, affecting commodity exporters such as Australia, Brazil, and African nations, as well as Asian manufacturing hubs integrated into China’s supply chains.
Within the investment landscape, fixed-asset investments in manufacturing and utilities showed modest growth, increasing 5.1 per cent and 18.8 per cent, respectively, from a year earlier. Economists noted that growth remains uneven, with private real estate developers reducing activities while state-led infrastructure, high-tech, and industrial upgrading projects continue to receive support.
Despite the slowdown in August, China remains on track to meet its annual growth target of approximately 5 per cent. However, the combination of weak consumer spending, rising unemployment, falling investment in real estate, and deflationary pressures underscores the economic vulnerability facing China. While exports and high-tech investments provide limited support, the overall picture points to a country grappling with structural challenges, uneven recovery, and ongoing risks to domestic growth. The latest data suggest that the Chinese economy remains in a fragile state, and policymakers face the challenge of reigniting demand while balancing industrial restructuring and social stability.
The cumulative effect of slowing industrial output, weak retail growth, faltering property investment, and rising unemployment paints a sobering picture of China’s economic trajectory, leaving the nation vulnerable to further shocks both at home and in the global economy.
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