After the flurry of activities surrounding skirmishes between India and Pakistan for three or four days (May 6/7 to May 10 ceasefire), Pakistan Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on May 12, spoke about the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). He claimed (falsely though) that India keeping the Treaty in abeyance has not impacted his country one bit. This statement is just about as true as the claims that S400 missile batteries deployed at Adampur airbase were damaged in a Pakistani missile raid!
In a manner of veiled threat, he also said that “Pakistan even does not want to consider a scenario in which the Treaty was not reinstated’’! It bears mention here that too many Pakistani leaders, and terrorists like Hafiz Saeed and Syed Salahuddin, have said in the past that “unilateral scrapping’’ of the Treaty would be considered as an “act of war”. However, the fact is that Pakistan will have to deal with a situation wherein the Treaty is not reinstated.
What next?
On April 23, within 24 hours of the Pahalgam massacre of Hindu tourists, Bharat decided to keep the IWT in “abeyance”. Pakistan has been emphasising time and again since that day that there was no provision in IWT for keeping it in abeyance unilaterally. But beyond these empty words, and other rhetorical statements regarding the options it had on the Treaty, Pakistan has failed to do anything concrete.
Legal Options
Pakistan had at one time threatened to use one or more of the three legal options it had on the Treaty. It had then claimed that going to the World Bank with a complaint against India, going to International Court of Justice (ICJ) or UN Security Council were being considered as options by its leadership. None of these three options have been used by Pakistan so far as it knows that none of the so-called options is practical.
In his statement broadcast nationwide on May 12 morning, Prime Minister Narendra Modi did not say that the pause (abeyance) on IWT was about to be lifted. Instead, he talked about the fact that the only two things needed to be discussed with Pakistan. One was the return of Pakistan Occupied Jammu Kashmir (POJK) and the second was about terrorists it was harbouring on its soil. Modi not mentioning IWT in his speech appears to have spooked the entire Pakistan political leadership, military leadership and ordinary people.
These so-called legal options are just flights of fancy the Pakistani leadership has been riding on and don’t stand scrutiny. Just as there is a marked difference between false bravado and real bravery, legal options and claims are two entirely different things.
Pakistan Minister also expressed the hope that the Treaty would be reinstated soon. What is the basis of his fond hopes that Bharat is about to do so? There is nothing in the public domain to remotely suggest that there is any possibility of a rollback of keeping the Treaty in abeyance from our side. If keeping up a brave demeanour in the face of adversity could win him a Nobel, he could have sure been a contender.
Economy Tanked
He is lying blatantly when he claims that there has been no impact of the Indian hostilities on Pakistan’s economy. Terroristan’s bankrupt economy which he is heading has tanked within the past one week as the value of the company stocks has plummeted. Sensex at Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) has shed thousands of points and there is a virtual bloodbath witnessed there.
For the foreseeable future too, Pakistan’s economy cannot be expected to perform well, or better than what is doing at present. This is mainly due to the political instability infecting the body politic due to last year’s heavily rigged elections. Then there are incendiary insurgencies going on in Balochistan (which cover 45 per cent of Pakistan land mass) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces. Add to this a chronically sick ecosystem the sense of entitlement of the Punjabis which is greatly annoying for other three provinces of Pakistan.
All this adds to a deadly cocktail more venomous than the sting of a cobra.
Sensible Option
The only option before Pakistan is to respond to India’s notices given under Article XII (3) of the IWT on January 25, 2023, and subsequently. It should shed false pretences and submit itself before India saying it was ready to join negotiations to work for a new Treaty to be worked out bilaterally. Otherwise, what is happening presently will be stretched further, days turning into weeks, weeks turning into months and months into years.
Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri had mentioned IWT many times during his briefings over days. He had emphasised time and again that the onus of creating such a situation squarely lies with Pakistan. He had also mentioned Article XII (3) notices served on Pakistan repeatedly and its failure to respond.
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