When the Islamic State announced that it was commencing operations in Afghanistan, the threat was underestimated. One of the main reasons why the group was not taken seriously was because the setting up of the Islamic State Khorasan Province came in the backdrop of its falling in the mainland of Iraq and Syria.
The announcement to set up operations in Afghanistan with the focus also being on India and Bangladesh was made in January 2015. The setting up in Afghanistan took some time as the leadership then under Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was negotiating with the Taliban. The Taliban was not in favour of this group setting up operations and even invited Baghdadi to join them and fight together. The Islamic State’s self-styled Caliph however rejected that offer.
Over the years, the Islamic State strengthened its grip in Afghanistan and today it has gone on to become not just the most dangerous terror outfit in the region, but the entire world.
Rise of the Islamic State Khorasan Province
The United Nations earlier this week raised an alarm and stated that the threat from the Islamic State in Afghanistan is fast escalating. It’s not only posing a risk to the region, but to global security the UN said.
The UN counterterrorism chief Vladimir Voronkov went on to call the Islamic Stat Khorasan as one of the most dangerous branches of the terror network. He was citing the deadly attacks carried out by it on Afghan civilians and the Taliban regime. It poses a threat to Afghanistan and beyond. He added that the terror group was recruiting actively from Central Asia and has also been linked to terror plots in Europe.
“We remain concerned about ISIS-K’s capabilities to plot and conduct attacks, as well as sustain recruitment campaigns, particularly in Afghanistan and Pakistan,” US Ambassador Dorothy Shea said.
From nothing to everything
In January 2015 none would have imagined that the Islamic State would survive even for a year in Afghanistan. The Taliban was strong and rooted and had the backing of Pakistan.
Further the US forces too were present in Afghanistan at the time and hence it seemed next to impossible for the terror group to thrive.
However, it was the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan which changed everything. While Russia said that the hasty 2021 withdrawal is what made the outfit stronger, there are more factors attached to it.
As long as the US forces were in Afghanistan, the Taliban and Islamic State did not cross paths too often as they had a common enemy. The US however negotiated with the Taliban before they could pull out. Once the US was out it was an open field in Afghanistan. The battle was a direct one between the Taliban and Islamic State.
The Taliban saw success at first and with the help of Pakistan it did manage to beat down its rival.
However, over the months, ties between the Taliban and Pakistan began to strain. The Taliban had started questioning the unwanted meddling by the ISI in Afghanistan. Further the airstrikes carried out by Pakistan in Afghanistan further strained relations.
On the other hand, the Pakistani Taliban was getting aggressive and carried out a spate of attacks in Pakistan. This led to the ISI leaning towards the Islamic State. During this Pakistan offered ample support and spruced up the Islamic State thus making it extremely lethal. The intention by Pakistan was to create an adversary for the Taliban within their own country. The gamble did pay off for the ISI.
The Taliban has however downplayed the threat. It denies that the Islamic State is operating in Afghanistan. The Taliban leadership insists that their security forces have dismantled the outfit. However in December the Islamic State launched a deadly attack in which Khalil Ur-Rahman Haqqani, the Taliban’s minister of refugees was killed. This marked one of the most high-profile assassinations the Islamic State took since the Taliban gained control over Afghanistan.
Why India needs to worry
For India, the Islamic State Khoisan does pose a great challenge. First and foremost it is operating on neighbouring soil. This gives it easy access to the radicalised Muslims in India.
The Islamic State has in fact recruited from India. The 21 persons who left Kerala to join the outfit all landed in Afghanistan. Further Intelligence agencies have been noticing a worrying trend. Earlier each one of these persons were Syria bound. However now they prefer being recruited into Afghanistan. This is because of the proximity to India and the cultural differences are minimal in Afghanistan when compared to the Arab world.
Further the Islamic State has a huge influence in India as well. There are scores of Muslims who have been radicalised thanks to the online propaganda that the outfit puts up. While counterterrorism officials are working round the clock to pull down such material, more comes up in no time. Further the use of Artificial Intelligence to generate content and circulate the same has only made it easier for the outfit.
The Islamic State has a strong presence in many parts such as Kerala, Telangana, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu among others.
While it may appear that the sole focus of the Islamic State would be to defeat the Taliban and take over Afghanistan, the fact is that the agenda is a much larger one. One must revisit a plan drawn up by the Islamic State in late 2015. It speaks about setting up an Islamic Caliphate which includes Jammu and Kashmir, Rajasthan, Gujarat. It also includes the whole of Bangladesh. Hence when one speaks in terms of threat perception, this is a lethal terror group which is capable of having radical Muslims not just infiltrate the ground, but the mind as well.
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