In the first Republic Day Parade held on January 26, 1950, Sukarno, the first president of Indonesia and its tallest leader was the Chief Guest. In the fitness of things, Prabowo Subianto, the current President of Indonesia was the Chief Guest for 76th Republic Day Parade held on 26 January this year. Indonesia gained independence in the year 1949 and thus is a younger independent nation, as compared to India. Indonesia has by and large maintained the democratic spirit. India and Indonesia have shared unsteady diplomatic relations, ranging from being extremely close, to being hostile and now back towards being friendly. The visit of the Indonesian President along with a large entourage of diplomats, armed forces brass and industry leaders have shaped the growth trajectory of the future relations between the two Asian giants.
Indonesia unfortunately does not figure much in our public discourse. Indonesia is a major country located in Southeast Asia and Oceania, between the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. It is world’14th largest country in terms of area (1,904,569 sq km) and consists of over 17,000 islands. With a population of over 28 crores, Indonesia is world’s fourth most populous nation. Out of this, 24.4 crore, that is roughly 87 per cent of the population is Muslim, making Indonesia the world’s most populous Muslim-majority country. Pakistan is close second with 24 crore Muslim population and India has third largest Muslim population of more than 20 crores. Indonesia shares land borders with Papua New Guinea, East Timor and Malayasia. Indonesia shares maritime boundary with Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines and India, thus making it a key partner in the Indian Ocean Region and Indo-Pacific.
India and Indonesia were among the founder members of the Non-Aligned Movement in 1961, a grouping of nations which wanted to remain neutral between the US and Soviet alliance. Surprisingly, the relations between India and Indonesia deteriorated from 1962 onwards and during 1962 Indo-China war, Indonesia did not support India. Indonesia thereafter became close to Pakistan and also toed the line of Pakistan on Kashmir. Later, the relations improved under President Suharto in the 1970s and under him, India and Indonesia settled maritime boundary in the year 1977. But it was the ‘Look East Policy’ of PV Narasimha Rao government in the year 1991 that gradually improved trade and economic relations between the two countries.
Since 2014, Prime Minister Modi instituted a more aggressive ‘Act East Policy’ with a focus on joint projects, connectivity and trade. As a result, Indonesia today is the second largest trading partner of India in ASEAN, after Singapore. Bilateral trade between the two countries is close to $ 30 billion but a lot of analysts believe that the trade has huge scope for growth between two populous nations. It is in the defence sector that both the nations have come close, particularly with a belligerent China in the South China Sea and an assertive China in the Indo-Pacific. Military exchanges between the two nations have increased in the last five years and the Indonesian Naval Chief Admiral Muhammad Ali accompanied the President Subianto during the recent trip.
During Eastern Ladakh faceoff with China, India had to exert pressure on China elsewhere. India’s recent assertion in the South China Sea through Singapore, Philippines and to some extent through Vietnam and Indonesia had almost become inevitable to counter China. It is hoped that that the Indian leadership has taken a well-considered decision to flex its muscles against China in the South China Sea, knowing very well that China has world’s largest navy armed with 370 ships and submarines. In comparison, India Navy has 132 warships. Indian Navy is aiming to be a major blue water force and has placed orders for 68 more warships worth Rs 2 lakh crores. The dedication of three indigenous naval ships by PM Modi recently is a good step. But acquisition of naval power is always a time-consuming process.
In my opinion, China may well settle maritime dispute with its neighbours and thus South China Sea may be low hanging fruit for it. China is looking at the strategic gains in the Indo-Pacific to be the next superpower. China therefore is much irked with Quad, a strategic security dialogue between Australia, India, Japan and the United States. India has slowly and steadily made progress to leverage Indo- Pacific, a geographical entity which comprises the tropical waters of the Indian Ocean, the western and central Pacific Ocean, and the seas connecting the two. As the lone super power, the US has dominated the affairs of the Indo-Pacific region for a long time. The US has huge military presence in the region in terms of miliary bases, deployment of aircraft carrier ships and bilateral/regional security groupings.
The US hegemony has now been challenged by China, beginning with its belligerence in South China Sea and increased presence in the Indo-Pacific region. In the South China sea, continuous friction with countries like Philippines is happening and the naval vessels have come close to formal attack. Economically, China dominates the ASEAN block and through them desires to dominate the Indo-Pacific. It is to counter Chinese domination in the region that the US is supporting India more actively now. India and US have made significant progress in operationalising the Indo-Pacific Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA), a Quad initiative comprising of India, US, Australia and Japan. China as expected has expressed its annoyance at this agreement. The recent meeting of the foreign ministers of Quad on the sidelines of President Trump taking the oath of office is another indication of the growing clout of this grouping.
Indonesia has a fairly large Navy comprising of 7 Frigates, 25 Corvettes, 4 Submarines, a large number of patrol boats and aerial assets to guard the lengthy coastline, islands and protect the maritime interest. With a manpower of more than 65,000 personnel, it has the largest navy in the ASEAN bloc. Indian Navy has carried out many bilateral and multilateral naval exercises with Indonesian Navy in the recent past. In this regard, the meeting of the Indonesian Naval Chief with the CDS and India’s CNS assumes extra importance. Both India and Indonesia may have to play more proactive role in the choppy waters of the Indo-Pacific. Obviously, a friction with China is only to be expected and the Quad should now assume a formal alliance shape, with a permanent secretariat under Trump 2.0 administration.
The renewal of the MoU on Maritime Safety and Security Cooperation between India and Indonesia during the visit of President Subianto and a host of other economic, health related and cultural agreements have given a major fillip to India- Indonesia relations. Indonesia has also evinced interest in our BrahMos missiles, which are already in service with Philippines. With world’s largest Muslim population, the voice and support of Indonesia is critical in its stand on Kashmir and other friction points of diplomacy. India has to ensure that Indonesia becomes its most reliable partner in the ASEAN bloc. The lighthearted statement of President Subianto that he has ‘Indian DNA’ and he is fond of Indian music has deep rooted meaning. Having assumed office of the President of Indonesia October last year, Subianto and PM Modi have more than four years in their current term to take India-Indonesia relations to dizzying heights of glory.
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