Some of the deadliest organisations that Bharat deals with today are the Lashkar-e-Tayiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad. Both these groups, which have carried out attacks in various parts of the country, have, however, in recent times, restricted their operations only to Jammu & Kashmir.
While these are the more visible groups and the security forces have learnt how to handle them, an Intelligence Bureau assessment says that the real danger in the days to come is from the Al Qaeda in the Sub Continent (AQIS) and the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP).
An Intelligence Bureau official tells Organiser that these organisations will pose a major headache for the agencies because radical Muslim identifies more with these groups. When it comes to the Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Tayiba, they align more towards a political agenda of Pakistan. However, in the case of the AQIS and ISKP, the alignment is more towards an ideology which speaks about a Caliphate and the establishment of the Sharia law. The officer also noted that these factors would allow these groups to run deep into the system across the country.
Both these terror groups have tried to launch themselves in Bharat on several occasions, but their attempts have not been entirely successful. However, what one failed to understand is that while these groups did fail on the operations front, they successfully managed to spread their ideology among the radical Muslim youth.
What is also working to their advantage is the turmoil in Bangladesh. The players in Bangladesh today are radically motivated and will provide the required space for these outfits to operate and launch attacks in Bharat.
A Russia-like operation
The ISKP, which was presumed to be restricted only to Afghanistan, announced its arrival on the global stage when it carried out an audacious attack in Russia. The group’s terrorists stormed the Crocus City Hall near Moscow and killed 137 people in one of the deadliest attacks that the country has seen in recent times.
This attack took place two weeks after American Intelligence had warned that terrorists had imminent plans to attack large events in the city. The American Intelligence is not restricted to Russia alone but to the entire Khorasan Province. It is a well-known fact that the ISKP has a lot of interest in Bharat, and the agencies say that they could be planning something along the lines of the Russia strike in India as well.
The ISKP would place more emphasis on the southern part of the country, whereas the AQIS would operate in the north. While both outfits are considered to be enemies, this time around, they would come together and work towards a common goal. There would be no issues when it comes to jurisdiction, and each would stick to its own areas of operation without overlapping with the interests of the other.
Of late, there has been a lot of chatter that is being picked up about these groups planning a massive strike inside Bharat. There is a general alert about the activities of these groups, and the agencies are keeping a close eye on them.
Based on the chatter and the Intelligence that was gathered, the Special Cell of the Delhi Police recently arrested 14 members of the AQIS who were undergoing arms training under the watch of one, Dr Ishtiyaq, who is based in Ranchi. The investigations are ongoing, and so far, what one has been able to gather is that the AQIS is at the indoctrination stage and also imparting arms training, thus trying to set the stage for something large in the months to come.
India centric operations
The AQIS has made all its operations India centric. This was made obvious when, in 2020, it renamed its Urdu language magazine Nawa-i-Afghan Jihad to Nawa-i-Ghazwa-e-Hind.
A lot of developments took place in 2020. The group has been structuring itself slowly but surely in Bharat. It has ramped up its propaganda, egging the Indian Muslims to rise and fight against the government. It even set up modules in Assam, closer to the Bangladesh border. Counter-terror experts say that initially, the threat from this group had reduced, but that was only temporary in nature. It has managed to rebuild and could soon become a major headache.
After the AQIS made unsuccessful attempts to establish itself in Jammu & Kashmir, it has been focusing a lot on the North Indian states and the northeast. The Assam module could prove to be the most dangerous.
Over the past couple of years, it has managed to get in several people from Bangladesh. Between February 2022 and October 2022, the police and the National Investigation Agency (NIA) arrested 53 individuals, including Bangladeshis, for being part of this module. The seeds were first sown in 2018 when the AQIS sent one Saiful Islam, a resident of Narayanganj in Bangladesh, to Assam. His brief was clear, and that was not to carry out terror strikes. He worked as an Arabic teacher at a Madrasa and followed his instructions in which he was asked to blend into the local society. He married a local girl and then gradually began radicalising the Muslim youth in various parts of Assam.
The ISKP, on the other hand, has built solid ground in South India. It has worked closely with the Popular Front of India (PFI) to establish its network. In states such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu and parts of Karnataka, the ISKP derives strong traction. It has also been using the PFI’s network to undertake its operations.
With the PFI banned, the ISKP is looking to fill in that space. The police have found that many PFI operatives who went underground since the ban are gradually resurfacing and working for the ISKP. One of the ISKP’s biggest achievements in South India was when it got 21 people from Kerala to join it in Afghanistan. This was just the start of something big in the region.
The ISI’s game plan
With Bangladesh slipping into the hands of the radical Mullahs, the country has become a safe playground for the AQIS and ISKP. This also has provided the ISI a ground to play Bharat on both the Bangladesh and Pakistan border.
The ISI would never let the AQIS and ISKP operate in Jammu and Kashmir. On the other hand, it would not allow any operations by the Lashkar-e-Tayiba or Jaish-e-Mohammad in Bangladesh. Each of these groups has its jurisdictions marked very strictly by the ISI. While the Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Tayiba would continue to battle Bharat in Jammu and Kashmir, the AQIS and ISKP would run the show along the Bangladesh border.
In Bangladesh, the ISI has been encouraging the activities of the ISKP and AQIS with a larger aim of keeping the border under stress with Bharat. This time around, the worry for the agencies is that the job of these terror groups would be easy since they have Bangladesh as a safe haven to operate from. The other question is whether the situation would be any different if elections were held and Muhammad Yunus was out of the picture. The answer is no, and in the event of a free and fair election that is not on the cards, a BNP-Jamaat government would be at the helm. This means that these terror groups would have a free hand and licence to operate.
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