Bangladesh: Dhaka’s dangerous dynamics

The coup that toppled Sheikh Hasina’s Government on August 5, 2024, was backed by certain powers, ostensibly, because they believed that there was a certain democratic deficit, in the way, the regime had been functioning. However, the remedy inflicted on Bangladesh has been worse than the malady. Dhaka now has an administrative set up which lacks any legitimacy or constitutional validity. The US and some of its allies probably felt that the last elections held in January 2024, which ushered in Awami League Government led by Sheikh Hasina, were not completely free and fair, but the present set up has no intention of even going through the motion to seek people’s mandate or even ratification. It is not even interested in being subjected to judicial scrutiny, as the dissenting judges have been forced to resign, turning the judiciary into a handmaiden of this administrative setup, which has no constitutional validity. It is so scared of seeking people’s mandate that it wants to ban the largest political party of the country, and then reform the ‘electoral system, Constitution and the judiciary completely’ without any timeframe before even thinking of seeking the people’s mandate. It has blamed the previous Government for destroying the country’s governance structure completely in the last 15 years. Ironically, during this period Bangladesh achieved the most spectacular economic growth and an unprecedented improvement in its HDI ranking!

Domination of Islamists
To compound matters, the present arbitrary set up that governs Bangladesh is neither interim nor neutral, but is dominated by radical Islamists and elements that never supported Bangladesh’s independence. Sheikh Hasina’s Government had cracked down on radical Islamist outfits after the terror attack on Holey Artisan Bakery in Gulshan Area of Dhaka in 2016. The crackdown had clearly revealed the deep inroads that outfits affiliated with the IS and Al Qaeda had made in Bangladesh. After the Government crackdown, some Islamists went underground, whilst others joined various political and government organisations, pretending that they had no connections with radical outfits.

Growing Influence of Jihadis

Ironically, many even joined Awami League, the party of Sheikh Hasina. However, with the fall of her Government, all these elements, especially those affiliated with Jamaat e Islami and Hefazat-e-Islami, are showing their true colours and are slowly capturing various arms of the Government. Many of these terrorists and extremists, who had been incarcerated, have been released. A memorial built in memory of the policemen, who laid their lives in the terrorist attack on Holey Artisan bakery, was vandalised, and the banned global militant outfit Hizb ut-Tahrir put up its posters there. Over 3,000 policemen were brutally killed during and after the coup. Many Mazaars and Sufi shrines were attacked. To further aggravate matters, the Attorney General of the present administration, a BNP politician, even claimed that with over 90 per cent Muslim population, there was no place for secularism in the Constitution.

This has specifically created an existential threat for religious minorities, who were often perceived to be pro-Awami League. Many Hindu politicians have been killed; Hindu temples and Buddhist shrines have been ransacked, churches have been demolished and even sectarian minorities like Shias and Ahmediyyas have been targeted and their religious places vandalised. There have been street agitations by radical Islamist forces calling for death and decimation of Hindus.

Targeting Prominent Seer

When the minorities protested, the administration threatened to ban ISKCON and even arrested one of its sanyasis Chinmoy Krishna Das from Dhaka Airport, when he was flying to attend a conference abroad. Ramen Roy, an advocate, who allegedly was planning to defend him, was brutally attacked in his home and is fighting for life. Other Hindu lawyers are receiving threats and some of them have been implicated in false cases. Consequently, no lawyer is willing to take up the case of Chinmoy Das, who continues to languish in jail.

The international community needs to understand that the current administrative set up led by Dr Muhammad Yunus lacks any constitutional validity

It needs to be remembered that radical Islamists led by Jamaat have never supported the creation of Bangladesh and division of Islamic Ummah. Many of them still harbour the dream of making Bangladesh, a Pakistani colony, although in almost every socio-economic indicator, Bangladesh is far ahead of Pakistan. Many actions of the administration clearly indicate their orientation, as they have removed the rule requiring complete physical examination of goods imported from Pakistan, which could facilitate illegal transfer of arms and ammunition to pro-Pak elements in Bangladesh. Officials and civil society members who raised voices against Islamic terror and the Pakistani collaborators of 1971, have all lost jobs and have been incarcerated on trumped up charges. There are already reports of Pakistan supplying large quantities of artillery shells to Bangladesh. This pro-Pakistan and Islamist orientation of the administration could turn Bangladesh not only as a safe haven for anti-India forces, but also as a citadel for jihadi organisations affiliated with Al Qaeda and Islamic State, akin to Afghanistan in 2001. Already, a violent breed of under qualified and even uneducated children are being trained to create mob incidents. Three members, who have been affiliated with Hijbut Tahrir are now ‘advisers’ controlling powerful Ministries. All endeavours to inculcate a scientific outlook or promote economic activities have collapsed, despite liberal support from global financial institutions backed by the West. All these are incentivising radical thoughts and promoting radicalisation of society.

Making North East Vulnerable

From Bharat’s point of view, this could aggravate the security situation in the North East, as Bangladeshi territory could be made available to various insurgent outfits to seek support from other anti-India elements and establish training grounds. This would jeopardise Bharat’s Act East policy as India has established numerous transport linkages with Bangladesh. Indian investments in Bangladesh would also be at grave risk and trade with Bangladesh could be severely impacted. Radicalisation of Bangladesh would also bolster similar forces in India, by providing them moral and material support. A radicalised Bangladesh could also help to meet the theological requirement of jihad, besides providing jihadis safe havens for launching cross-border terror attacks in Indian territory. However, it needs to be appreciated that a radicalised Bangladesh will not only export its rabid ideology across the borders, but also act as a launch pad for jihadi terrorists, posing grave security threat not merely to the countries in the region, but also to the entire globe, as was clearly demonstrated by 9/11. The forces, who want to make Bangladesh an appendage of Pakistan, are carefully dismantling the progressive state created by Sheikh Mujib based on the ideals of Bengali nationalism, seeped in secularism and socialism. At the moment, the Islamist forces are in the process of consolidating their position and can be easily dislodged with little effort, but it will be a much tougher task, once they have entrenched themselves.

The international community needs to understand that the current administrative set up led by Dr Muhammad Yunus lacks any constitutional validity. While Yunus, a Nobel laureate, is a renowned economist, it must be appreciated that he is merely a figurehead, the real power is wielded by the Islamists. At present, the President and the Army chief, who heads an ideologically divided force, provide some resistance to the onward march of jihadi forces, but these impediments may not last long. All political parties including the Awami League and BNP need to come together to remove this undemocratic structure and the Mukti Joddhas, who liberated Bangladesh from Pakistani yoke to create a sovereign Bangladesh, with a progressive outlook, may probably need to start another Liberation War to prevent Bangladesh from becoming another Afghanistan or a Pakistani stooge.

(The views expressed are personal)