Bangladesh under Muhammad Yunus has no doubt descended into crisis, but over the last couple of weeks Dhaka’s policies clearly suggest that the country is cozying up to Pakistan.
Restoring sea routes and visa waivers are just some of the steps taken by the Yunus led government which clearly show that the country is getting closer to Pakistan. In a nutshell if one were to put it, Dhaka no longer wants to view South Asia from the Indian prism.
Bangladesh which is now a close ally of the United States under the Biden administration would find itself in a tricky situation when it comes to its South Asia policy. Trump has clear views about the situation in Pakistan and Bangladesh and views South Asia through the Indian prism.
While these developments unfold, the road ahead for Bharat would be hard and there is a lot of work to be done before some amount of semblance could be attained.
A direct sea route
Under Sheikh Hasina, relations with Pakistan have always been tense. However, since her ouster, the Muhammad Yunus led caretaker government has moved closer towards Islamabad. It is however unclear whether this shift in policy is his own doing or is he working under the influence of the Jamaat-e-Islami and BNP. The Jamaat for one is a stooge of Islamabad and that is a well documented fact.
One major decision that Yunus took was to allow a Pakistan freight ship from Karachi to dock at Bangladesh’s southeastern Chittagong port. This went on to mark a direct maritime link between the two countries, the first in 47 years.
The development was welcomed by both nations and Pakistan’s envoy to Dhaka Syed Ahmed Maroof said that this was a major step in boosting trade across the region. The route will promote new avenues for business on both sides, Maroof also said.
Further Bangladesh also lifted import restrictions on Pakistani goods. Prior to this all goods coming in from Pakistan had to be offloaded on to other vessels which usually belonged to Malaysia or Sri Lanka. These vessels would then make its way into Bangladesh. Further these vessels needed a thorough check by the Bangladeshi authorities and this was mandatory.
Restrictions on travel norms gone
Under Sheikh Hasina, it was mandatory for all Pakistanis travelling to Bangladesh to obtain a ‘no objection’ clearance from the Bangladesh Security Services Division. Now with Yunus at the helm these restrictions are gone.
The Bangladeshi. Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Dhaka sent a message to all its missions abroad instructing them to facilitate visas for Pakistani nationals and also those of Pakistan origin. Further the interim government also removed the requirement for Pakistani citizens to obtain security clearance before applying for a Bangladeshi visa.
This was a reciprocal move as Pakistan had in September announced that Bangladeshis would be able to travel the neighbouring nation without incurring any visa fees. Both countries also announced resumption of direct flights between the two countries. The last direct flight between the two countries was operated in 2018 by the Pakistan International Airlines (PIA).
Boosting military ties
Dhaka placed an order for fresh supply of artillery ammunition from Pakistan in August, just three weeks after Sheikh Hasina’s ouster. The interim government sought 40,000 rounds of artillery ammunition, 2,000 tank ammunition units, 2,900 high-intensity projectiles and 40 tonnes of RDX explosives.
Pakistan had also proposed a joint military exercise with Bangladesh. Experts say that there is no doubt that the two countries will get even closer in the days to come. One could expect close defence cooperation between the two countries on a much larger scale experts also point out.
The 1971 thorn in the thaw
One of the primary reasons why the ties between Dhaka and Islamabad took so long to normalise is due to the 1971 genocide. Pakistan is yet to apologise for the genocide of 1971.
Ties were strained as East Pakistan gained independence from Pakistan with the support of the Indian Army. Following this the country came to be named as Bangladesh.
Following Sheikh Hasina’s ouster, Syed Ahmed Maroof met with the IT adviser of the interim government and discussed the possibility of resolving the tensions, particularly the issue of the 1971 Liberation War. Maroof went on to say that Pakistan has a deep desire to address the 1971 question.
On the 76th death anniversary of Muhammad Ali Jinnah an event was organised at the National Press Club in Dhaka where the founder of Pakistan was praised. Bangladesh feels that cozying up to Pakistan is important in the context of having a democratic South Asia.
What lies ahead for Bharat
For Bharat the situation is tricky considering that both Dhaka and Islamabad have been known perpetrators of terror. All the decisions that have been taken by the Yunus led interim government appear as though it aims at normalising ties with Pakistan.
However,BNP in reality it is the coming together of two Islamic nations and in the long run would benefit all those terrorists who are aiming a hit against Bharat.
The allowing of the vessels coming into Bangladesh unchecked would mean that criminals from Pakistan will be able to send arms, ammunition and narcotics unchecked. These elements would eventually try and send the same into Bharat.
The easing of the visa policy also means that criminals can come to Bangladesh unchecked and then eventually try and enter states like Tripura, West Bengal and Assam. Further aiding them now is a direct flight between the two countries. Bharat and Bangladesh share a porous border and these new policies would mean that smuggled goods and people with criminal antecedents can be easily moved into Bharat.
The worries for New Delhi are not unfounded as there have been plenty of incidents in which ammunition has been moved. In 2004, officials seized 1,500 boxes of Chinese ammunition worth around $7 million meant to be delivered to the banned outfit ULFA. Investigations learnt that it was the ISI which moved this consignment.
Another concern would be the BNP coming to power. New Delhi is trying to work around this situation and would be in touch with Tariq Zia, the son of Khaleda Zia. Tariq tipped to be the next Prime Minister is a known Pakistan sympathiser and working around that would be challenging. However, officials told Organiser that while it may be hard, it is not impossible.
Bharat’s apprehensions about a BNP being in power are not unfounded. Between 2001 and 2006 when the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami were in power, the ISI had unbridled access in Dhaka. This was used extensively to nurture northeastern insurgents and terror groups like the Lashkar-e-Tayiba to operate in Bangladesh against Bharat. It was also learnt that some ministers in the BNP government were involved in the abetment of terror and insurgency against Bharat.
Infiltration of illegal immigrants would also be a major concern for Bharat. Following the Liberation War, both the DGFI, Bangladesh and ISI, Pakistan worked very closely on this issue. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and General Zia ul Haq had both planned disturbances in Bharat through illegal infiltrations. They had roped in the Jamaat to oversee this and the plan was to send as many Muslim infiltrators as possible in a bid to change the demographics in the bordering states. The primary idea was to have as many Muslim dominated areas in West Bengal, Assam and Tripura. While there would be Muslim domination, this would also lead to communal clashes.
Bangladesh watchers say that Bharat would need to wait and watch, while also working behind the scenes. It would be advisable to engage with an elected government rather than a temporary figure like Muhammad Yunus, they also point out.
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