The 33-month long Russia-Ukraine war appears to have entered a critical phase, which if handled well could the end of the conflict. Last week, Russia launched an Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) in the central east region of Ukraine for the first time in this long-drawn war. These ICBMs which have a range of 5800 km are designed to carry nuclear warheads, was essentially a powerful message to the US led NATO with Ukraine being a pawn in the larger global battle. Coming on the heels of revised nuclear doctrine announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin which formally lowers the nuclear threshold for employing the nuclear weapons, the move has dangerous implications. Russia has threatened the use of tactical nuclear weapons and if used in a distress situation by Russia, then it would lead to massive escalation of the conflict, well beyond the continental boundaries.
It is important to analyse the turn of events post the election of Donald Trump as the next US President designate. As promised by Donald Trump that his priority post assuming the appointment would be to end Russia-Ukraine war, the stand was reiterated by him in his post-election speeches and statements. This stand was welcomed, though in different degrees by both Ukraine and Russia. In fact, there was a news of tele conversation between Trump and Putin but Russia denied a day later. This notwithstanding, back-channel diplomacy would be going on to reach some sort of agreement before Mr. Trump officially becomes President on 20 January 2025. There is also a talk of a formal ceasefire in the ongoing war. So, it is but natural for Mr. Putin to consolidate his gains in the war before the formal negotiations commence. At the same time, Ukraine would like to regain lost territory to the extent feasible.
In this backdrop, US President Biden announced another 275-million-dollar aid to Ukraine. Surprisingly, the military package includes long range missiles and anti-personnel mines. Anti-Personnel mines are banned globally but US ostensibly wants to halt the Russian onslaught to capture as much territory of Ukraine, before the ceasefire. US also closed its embassy in Kiev fearing long range missile attack but reopened it after cautioning its people. It is well known that the present US President Biden fully supported the Ukraine war waging effort with multiple aid packages in the last 33 months. It is also believed that such military aid has only helped the US defence industry and thus business of war has also thrived in this conflict.
Trump is thinking differently in his second term. His choice of key appointments for Trump 2.0 is interesting. His focus is on ‘America First’ and the priority on domestic policies. With clear majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives, he is in a position to transform the US outlook to world affairs, besides regaining the unchallenged superiority in the world. His focus would be to contain the rise of China as its nearest competitor. Being a businessman, he does not believe in freebies. Therefore, NATO nations under him would have to bear the cost of any future conflict. He would not like to bleed US any further in a senseless war between Russia and Ukraine because the war has not diminished the stature of Russia and Mr. Putin much. With the active support of China and North Korea, the Russians now have regained the edge militarily and economically.
Trump was able to revive the relations of US with the maverick regime of North Korea in his last term. He is well aware that North Korea may jump into nuclear war, even at tactical level, on behest of Russia. With the long range of nuclear missiles, it may be difficult to clearly point out which country fired the missile. For example, in the instant ICBM case, Russia called it a test missile which went haywire. For Mr. Trump, the end of Russia-Ukraine war or at least ceasefire would give him some elbowroom to focus on Israel’s conflict in the middle east. It is in the middle east that the stakes of US are much high, in the near and long term.
Even with the best and noble intentions of Mr. Trump, it is still possible for the Russia-Ukraine war to escalate to unmanageable levels. The danger lies in both Zelensky and Putin being over ambitious to count their gains or losses. Mr. Zelensky has become the poster boy of a particular faction of the west but there is a limit to stretch it beyond a point. The people of Ukraine have suffered a lot and rebuilding the nation should be a priority of the world leaders.
Prime Minister Modi has been at the forefront of negotiating peace between Russia and Ukraine. Now that the conflict is delicately poised towards the end, his role becomes even more critical. Given his global credibility, PM Modi has to constantly remind both the warring factions to exercise restraint even under duress. The nuclear dimension of the war must be nipped in the bud. NATO nations and Ukraine should also be aware of the conflict spiraling beyond control with a small mistake or miscalculation. President elect Mr. Trump would be aware of Mr. Modi’s efforts to end the war and both the global leaders should connect to redouble the efforts to declare ceasefire and end the war subsequently.
The conflict situation in the world has once again exposed the vulnerability and weakness of the United Nations, particularly the UN Security Council. If the collective efforts of key players like the US and emergence of India as the leader of the Global South are able to bring near normalcy in the world by mid of the year 2025, then India has good chance to be on the high table of UNSC. India, therefore, should remain a key player to end the hostilities.
The next two months are going to be crucial for the enduring peace and tranquility in the world. Even China should take lead in ending the Russia-Ukraine war, notwithstanding its recent pact with Russia. All the stakeholders interested in maintaining enduring peace, rule of international law and global conventions have to be on watch to prevent slipping away the golden opportunity. India too has to play most proactive role to bring peace in the neighbourhood and in the Global South with its diplomatic, military and economic might. The golden opportunity to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is certainly in the global interest.
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