Opinion

Wars and future of global economy

Wars have long-lasting implications not only on nations directly involved but also on the global economy. As conflicts disrupt trade, supply chains, and financial stability, they reshape economic policies and priorities worldwide

Published by
Atul Sehgal

The world economy is in for an uncertain period. How the world economy will fare is uncertain and so is uncertain the duration of its progress or decline. Why so?–Because economic progress rests on peace. It rests on political stability. Its pillars are harmonious relationships between peoples and states.

The present world is in the throes of major wars at three geographical theatres and is privy to minor conflicts at 44 locations. One can imagine how much resources are being burnt and destroyed, how much human energy is being frittered and how much the entire ecosphere is being defiled and vitiated. Wars leave a terrible tale of death, destruction and doom. The wars do not seem to be ending anytime soon.  Perverted ideologies and bloated egos are preventing the cessation of these terrible wars.

The Russia- Ukraine war has taken a toll of more than 5 lakh persons dead or wounded. It has forced the displacement of more than 6 million Ukrainians away from the country as refugees and asylum seekers. Almost 4 million persons have been internally displaced in Ukraine. The Ukrainian economy has been shattered, plunging nearly 25 percent of the population into poverty. It will take big time, effort and resources to recoup the losses from this war.

As of November 5, 2024, over 45000 people have been reported killed in the Israel-Hamas war. More than 3400 Lebanese have lost their life in the ongoing Israel- Hezbollah war and about 1.4 million Lebanese displaced by the war.

The war also rages on between Israel and Iran and its proxy Houthi in Yemen.

The economic setback in the war affected countries is serious. But more serious is the dismal global outlook for the short term and medium-term future.

The true sign of economic progress is the preservation of what has been built and acquired and working to add on to it. What we are observing and going to observe will be its just opposite—because even if the wars were to end they will expectedly leave disturbed and distorted political equations and disharmonious settings between nations amidst mistrust, suspicion, fear and tension. This is because ideological differences will likely persist.

The economic future of the world will not brighten up in the wake of continuing ideological cracks in the global society. It is not going to improve with continuing single country paper currency ruling, with digital virtual currency like Bitcoin being bloated, used and promoted, with fierce trade wars through increasing import tariffs and with stoking the flames of cutthroat global trade competition.

We need different paradigms to reset the global economic path to make it progressive. Let me summarily cite them below.

The cost of environmental pollution is heavy and the effects of wars will leave the environment more polluted. The warring countries will replenish their arsenals after the war. But since modern weapons are harsh on the environment through their production and usage, weapon technologies will require refinement.

More and wider steps will be needed to upscale agriculture and food production using organic material and processes; otherwise we will begin to stare at severe food crises.

Governments across the globe should switch over to policies that are aligned with the philosophy of live and let live rather than survival of the fittest.

Ethnocentricity and cultural hegemony should give way to the Sanatan concept of the global family where minor cultural differences are considered natural and their peoples following those cultures are considered like siblings in one family.

Hedonism should be discouraged and dependence on machines for chores should be gradually reduced. The obsession with GDP growth should be reduced and replaced by respect for nature and preference for steady life in tune with Mother Nature.

Modern technologies are largely environmental unfriendly. More than water, air and soil, it is the ethereal space which is getting polluted through microwave radiation used for mobile telephony. Vedic Physics should be studied and based thereon, better technologies developed.

The space above the earth should be cleared of satellite debris and more research should be conducted based on eternal Vedic sciences to develop superior communication technologies.

Concepts of Creator, humans and other living beings and material nature and their interrelationships should be propagated so that global humans understand the primordial Sanatan concepts of Dharm (righteousness), Arth (wealth), Kama (desire) and Moksha (salvation) so that global humans assimilate these divine concepts that are both eternal and universal.

Based on the above philosophical strands and taking cue from the timeless texts like Arthshastra by Kautilya, we need to reset our economic systems.

The future of global economy is in our own hands. We can make it or mar it. The overly materialistic outlook on life needs to be replaced by a balanced outlook which will give equal importance to all the areas of human endeavour— Dharm, Arth, Kaam and Moksh. It will reduce evils like greed and hegemonic thought and make human life richer in both content and quality. We should strive for that kind of economic prosperity.

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