India would be hopeful that Canada would take into consideration its demands on protecting Khalistanis on its soil. Under the Joe Biden administration, India did not have the desired support that it had hoped for, but with Donald Trump sweeping the US elections, things may change on this front.
For Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, a win for Donald Trump is not exactly what he would have hoped for. The road ahead for the liberal Prime Minister of Canada who has been dubbed as a far-left lunatic by the Republicans would not be easy under a Trump presidency.
The consequences for Canada would include trade disputes that will push the country onto a recession as 75 per cent of its exports go to the US. The victory of Donald Trump would add to the miseries of Trudeau who is likely to lose to his Conservative opponent in an election that needs to be held within a year.
The economic slowdown in Canada and also a massive rise in the cost of living will be major campaign issues during the elections. Trudeau has not done anyone of his countrymen a favour either by entering into diplomatic disputes with both China and India.
What Canada would need to look out for is the tariff on all imports. Canada is the world’s 4th largest producer of crude oil. This looks extremely vulnerable now since Trump plans aa 10 per cent tariff on all imports in a bid to boost US energy production.
Trump is also not a big fan of Trudeau either. He had in 2002 called Trudeau a far-left lunatic as he had said that truck drivers crossing the border should be vaccinated against COVID-19. It may be recalled that in 2018 when Trump was President, he had walked out of the G7 Summit in Quebec and later blasted Trudeau for being weak and dishonest.
For Canada the challenge now would be declining investor confidence. The path ahead for Canada would be tricky since Trump will be on office for the next four years.
Justin Trudeau has been in power since 2015. Immediately after Trump’s victory, the Canadian leader was quick to congratulate him. He said that the US-Canada relations was the envy of the world.
“I know President Trump and I will work together to create more opportunity, prosperity, and security for both of our nations,” he said on X.
There has been a lot of firefighting and posturing following the Trump victory. Finance Minister of Canada, Chrystia Freeland said that a lot of Canadians were anxious through out the night. I want to say that Canada will be absolutely fine since they have a strong relationship with the US and strong ties with President Trump, she also said.
This is however quite contrary to what Trudeau had said back in January. He had told reporters that a Trump presidency would be a step back that made life tough for Canada.
The Canadian Chamber of Commerce said that the planned tariff of 10 per cent would Canada’s real income by 0.9 per cent annually. Labour productivity would fall by nearly 1 per cent. If the other countries retaliate, setting off a trade war, real income would drop by 1.5 per cent annually with labour productivity falling by nearly 1.6 per cent each years, the Chamber of Commerce also said.
When Trump took office in 2017, he had overdo to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, the trilateral deal with Canada and Mexico. He had then complained that trading partners were taking advantage of the US. During this time there were barbs hurled by both nations at each other. Finally both the US and Canada imposed sanctions on each other’s products, following which the US-Mexico-Canada deal was reborn.
In October this year, Trump spoke about the deal and said that in 2026, he would use an existing clause in the deal to start renegotiating the treaty. He went on say, ‘I am going to have a lot of fun.’
Another headache that awaits Canada is that Trump is likely to insist that Canada spends far more on defence.
Trudeau would also not have it easy when it comes to dealing with the Khalistani elements on its soil. He has been waging a diplomatic war on India in a bid to protect these elements. With Trump in the hot seat, he is unlikely to get the kind of backing that he received from the Biden administration. Moreover the US under Trump is unlikely to pursue the case against India on the attempted killing of terrorist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun so fiercely under Donald Trump.
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