India is watching closely along with the rest of the world as the counting of votes gets underway in the United States. The fortunes are tilting in the favour of Donald Trump, but with some swing states yet to declare results, one cannot predict the final outcome.
The relations between India and the United States is seen as one of the most consequential ones for this century. For several years now, the ties between the two countries has seen an upward tick. The question is who would be a better bet for. India-Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.
According to US watchers, a victory for either of the candidates is unlikely to alter the broader contours of the relations between the two countries. Let us take a look at how a Harris or Trump presidency would impact the relations between India and the United States.
India-China
For India, China remains a major challenge. Although there has been significant progress in the disengagement process along the Line of Actual Control in Eastern Ladakh, trust issues remain between the two countries.
Whether Trump wins or Harris, the growing Indo-Pacific relationship and Quad will remain in place. India would however need to build geopolitical leverages against China and this would mean that New Delhi will have to better its cooperation with like-minded countries in the region.
Harris is expected to follow what Biden did, but India would keep in mind the unpredictability factor under a Trump residency. However India will keep in mind that it was under Trump during his first term that the Quad was elevated to a ministerial level. Agreements were signed and the India-US 2+2 ministerial dialogue was initiated. Trump would also be more suited for India on issues such as counterterrorism.
Human rights issues
The US has this habit of lecturing countries on human rights violations. While it would not take into account its own track record on the subject, it would pounce on any opportunity to lecture India on human rights. In fact it is the Democrats who do this more and in the past one has seen the uncharitable comments on India’s human rights and the Kashmir being made.
Kamala Harris would surely follow what the previous Presidents from the Democratic Party have done. She would prioritise the issue during talks with India. In this context, Donald Trump would be a better bet and he has a proven track record of not wading into issues such as human rights or Kashmir. During the anti-CAA protests, he made it clear that this was India’s internal issue and rightly so. Even post the abrogation of Article 370, he stayed away from the issue stating that these are matters linked to India and New Delhi would be the best judge of it.
Harris on the other hand would do what the US legacy media does when it comes to India on these issues. She would raise issues such as a democracy being in danger and declining religious freedom in India.
The Khalistan issue
The US claims that it has unearthed plots by Indian agents to kill terrorist, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun on its soil. The Biden administration has not pushed the issue to the levels that a Justin Trudeau did, but has repeatedly sought for accountability. Harris will most likely tow that line, but will also keep in mind that the progress in relations the two countries have made would not be stymied.
Trump on the other hand will look to ease the pressure n India. Moreover under him the US prosecutors will not pursue these cases as aggressively as they have been doing now under Biden.
The US has however shown appreciation so far over the progress in the Indian probe into the case.
Immigration and trade
India would be worried about the immigration policies of Donald Trump. On the trade front too, India would be mindful of the fact that it was Trump who ended the preferential trade status under the Generalised System of Preference in 2019. Trump has threatened to launch a tariff war against China and he is likely to do the same with India as well, which he has called as a tariff abuser.
However there is nothing much to say about the Democrats either on this front. A mini trade deal which was under discussion during the Trump presidency fell through as both sides were willing to compromise. Harris will follow in the footsteps of Biden and is unlikely to dismantle the Trump-imposed higher tariffs.
On the immigration front, any return of some of the H1B regulations that Trump tried to impose during his presidency such as higher wage requirements for the foreign workers would be bad for the Indian IT sector.
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