Jammu: In 2002 as well as in 2008, and then in 2014 Assembly elections, three times in a row, the vote in Kashmir got fragmented among different parties. In all these three elections, the maximum any party could score in the Assembly was 28/87. National Conference (NC) scored 28 each in 2002 as also in 2008 elections. In 2014, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) of late Mufti Mohammad Sayeed scored 28/87. This figure of 28 was repeated thrice in a row in the assembly elections in Jammu & Kashmir.
The figure of 28/87 also means that about 32 per cent of Assembly seats which means the single largest parties had to get at least 16 more MLAs (approximately 19 per cent) to make it past the majority mark. This led to compromises and also difficulties for them as they had to concede to the demands of those legislators who joined them later, to support the Government.
A decade later, in the 2024 elections, this fragmentation did not happen with the result that the NC’s tally stood at 42/90 overall, with 35 of 47 seats it had won lying in the Valley alone. It has won seven seats in the Jammu region also. This number of 35/47 translates to almost 75 per cent of seats in the Valley. In other words, we can say that three-fourths of seats in Kashmir went to a single party, the NC.
NC Wins, PDP Decimated
This massive consolidation in favour of the NC led by Farooq Abdullah makes his son Omar Abdullah the upcoming Chief Minister. However, this consolidation of voters lining up behind NC in the Valley, to the exclusion of all others, has nearly decimated the PDP. The party which Mufti Mohammad Sayeed founded in 1999 has seen a very steep fall. It would score only 3/90 this time as against 28/87 in 2014.
People’s Conference (PC) of Sajjad Lone, Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) of Baramulla MP Engineer Rashid, CPM and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) won one seat each. On the other hand, Jammu & Kashmir Apni Party of Altaf Bukhari as also proxy Jamaat e Islami candidates could not win a single seat in the new Assembly. Even if it is not curtains for Bukhari, it is likely to be a long political pause for him and he may vanish from public discourse in the near future.
In terms of vote share, BJP has the highest vote share in the 2024 Assembly elections in J&K, scoring an impressive 25.54 per cent, more than the NC which got 23.43 per cent only
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has performed very well in the Jammu region, winning 29 of the 43 seats in the region. Incidentally, after the delimitation of Assembly and Lok Sabha segments a couple of years ago, this was the first time any elections were held. It won in five of the six new Assembly segments that were carved out of Jammu. Some of the new assembly segments were Padder-Nagseni in Kishtwar district, Ramgarh in Samba district, Jasrota in Kathua district, Sunderbani-Kalakote in Rajouri district and Katra Vaishno Devi in Reasi district.
Highest Vote Share
In terms of vote share, Bharatiya Janata Party has the highest vote share in the 2024 Assembly elections in J&K, scoring an impressive 25.54 per cent, more than the NC which got 23.43 per cent only. However, it is worth repeating here that with 25.54 per cent vote share, BJP won 29 seats. With 23.43 per cent vote share, 2.11 per cent less than BJP, the NC has scored victories in 42 Assembly segments and emerged as the single largest
legislative party.
However, the party performed poorly in the twin districts of Poonch and Rajouri. Of the eight Assembly segments, it could win only one, that of Sunderbani-Kalakote. In seven other Assembly segments, its candidates were runners-up. That means a better performance in these twin districts could have easily taken the BJP tally higher. In Rajouri, Vibodh Gupta of BJP lost by barely 1,400 votes to Congress candidate Iftikhar Ahmed,
who also got good backing from the NC supporters.
This is by far the BJP’s best performance ever in Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections as it improved upon its 2014 tally of 25 to 29 this time. Prior to elections, doubts were being expressed whether the BJP would be able to repeat its 2014 performance. However, the hard work put in by the party leaders and dedication of the workers has trumped these doubts. This has firmly established it as the party which most parts of the Jammu
region back.
In the third round of elections held on October 1, BJP won 10/11 seats at stakes in the Jammu district, 3/3 in the Samba district, 5/6 in Kathua district and 4/4 in Udhampur district. This means BJP returned its best performance in these districts at 22/24 seats. It got 4/8 seats in the first round held on September 18 but just got 3/11 in the second round held on September 25.
An interesting fact emerged from scrutiny of campaigning by various BJP leaders like PM Narendra Modi, Rajnath Singh, Amit Shah, Anurag Thakur and UP CM Yogi Adityanath etc. Of all the star campaigners, Yogi Adityanath was given the responsibility of addressing only four rallies. He addressed rallies at Marh, RS Pura-Jammu South, Ramgarh and Kathua, and all these seats were won by the BJP, meaning thereby he had a 100 per cent striking rate.
This raises an important question: Was it possible for the BJP to assign more rallies to Yogi Adityanath in J&K? For example in Nowshera and Rajouri segments in Rajouri district where party candidates lost narrowly? Some BJP supporters, who requested anonymity, said the party’s performance in Rajouri could have improved substantially had he campaigned. However, these are post facto comments and they don’t change the ground realities.
In the Jammu region, from where the BJP bagged all its 29 seats, Shagun Parihar from Kishtwar is the lone women winner. She is the daughter of Ajit Parihar, who was killed by terrorists some years ago when he was returning home at night from his shop. His brother Anil Parihar had also died in that attack. Shagun has proved to be truly a giant slayer as she defeated formidable NC candidate Sajjad Kichloo. The Kichloo family had remained virtually invincible in Kishtwar as Sajjad’s father had won from here three times and Sajjad himself was winner twice in the Assembly elections.
Cong’s Dismal Performance
Congress party, on the other hand, returned its worst performance till date in these elections in J&K, in Jammu region particularly. Only one of its candidates could win in the Jammu region and in 42 other Assembly segments of the region, its candidates were virtually lost in the electoral din. Party veterans like former Deputy Chief Minister Tara Chand, working president Raman Bhalla and former PCC chief Vikar Rasool Wani were beaten by their BJP rivals at the hustings.
The Valley, on the other hand, proved to be better for the Congress as five of its candidates won, taking the party’s tally to six. In 2002, Congress had won 20 seats in the 87 member Assembly, with 15 wins from the Jammu region. In 2008 too, its candidates had won a dozen seats in the Jammu region. In 2014 again, the party had got more seats from the Jammu region than Kashmir.
From 2002 to 2008, then 2014 and a decade later, the story of Congress in the Jammu region has been a steady downhill journey. In 2014 and 2024, Congress was replaced entirely by BJP in the Jammu region. One principal reason for the decline of the Congress in the region is parting of ways of veteran Ghulam Nabi Azad. While being in the Congress, he was a formidable presence holding his own, both in the Jammu region and Kashmir valley. Presently, no recognisable faces are left in the Congress and it may face further decline in the coming days.
NC Veterans Win for Seventh Time
Two National Conference (NC) leaders won the Assembly elections for the seventh time each from their respective constituencies. Party veteran and former Finance Minister Abdul Rahim Rather won from Charar-e-Sharif for the seventh time. He has represented this Assembly segment from 1977 onwards but lost it once in 2014. On the other hand, party’s senior leader Ali Mohammad Sagar won from Khanyar winning his seventh Assembly election in a row, never losing till date. NC’s Mubarak Gul, a former Speaker, won his sixth Assembly election, and CPM’s Yusuf Tarigami won his Kulgam seat for the fifth time.
Another interesting record of sorts was made by Mian Mehar Ali, who was NC’s candidate from Kangan (ST) constituency. Mian Mehar Ali is the fourth generation politician, who has become a legislator from his family which has never lost an election in J & K since 1952. His father Mian Altaf had won from Kangan six times in the past but did not contest this time. He contested the Lok Sabha elections from Rajouri-Anantnag some months ago and had defeated Mehbooba Mufti comprehensively. Mian Mehar Ali’s great grandfather, grandfather and father were all legislators (MLAs or MPs). The family is revered by the Gujjar-Bakerwal community and wins easily from Kangan. Even in elections when Dr Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah have lost, the Mian family has sailed through, till date. n
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