National Conference Vice President Omar Abdullah had declared some months ago that he would not participate in elections for the Legislative Assembly of Jammu & Kashmir as long as it remained a Union Territory (UT). Doing a volte-face in double quick time, Omar has now taken a plunge in the coming elections even when J&K continues to a UT and has not been given statehood by the Centre. Not only that, but he is also contesting from two seats, from Ganderbal and Budgam assembly segments.
Once the elections were announced, there was an impression among the electorate for some days that no pre-poll alliances were likely to emerge. That all parties, the National Conference, the Congress, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the BJP will face the electorate alone, just as had happened in 2014. Then again, the NC leadership sprang the second surprise by stitching an alliance with the Congress, announcing that they will contest 51 and 32 seats respectively. On some assembly segments, the two parties could not reach an agreement and are campaigning against one another in “friendly contests’’.
The third surprise, the biggest of them all so far, was delivered by the Supreme Court as it released Engineer Rashid on a parole for campaigning in the coming elections. The step was in line with the apex court’s release of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) chief Arvind Kejriwal’s release for some days before the Lok Sabha elections. Kejrwal could not influence the polls much apparently as he party drew a blank in Delhi which he rules as Chief Minister. In contrast, Engineer Rashid’s release and subsequent campaigning for Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) can considerable influence outcome in several segments in the 90-member assembly.
Engineer Rashid’s release has badly rattled Omar who have made several statements against the Independent Lok Sabha MP from north Kashmir area of Baramullah. Not to be outdone, PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti too has criticised the Rashid’s release at this juncture, implying in their speeches and insinuating that it was the handiwork of the BJP. They fail to tell their respective audiences that it is due to a Supreme Court order that Engineer Rashid is out of Tihar jail till the end of the election campaign.
On Sunday, Engineer Rashid joined hands with Jamaat e Islami saying the two groups/parties will support one another in several assembly segments. Particularly in assembly constituencies of Pulwama and Kulgam, this coming together of these two parties can hit the NC hard. These parties can get a good number of votes in all four assembly segments (Tral, Pampore, Pulwama and Rajpora) of the Pulwama district. In Kulgam district, the independent candidates backed by AIP and Jamaat can be a headache for both NC and the PDP in Kulgam, Devsar, Noorabad and Homashalibugh, all four assembly segments.
Incidentally, it needs to be mentioned here that Jamaat has its pockets of support in south Kashmir districts of Anantnag, Kulgam, Shopian and Pulwama, to an extent. With Engineer Rashid defeating Omar Abdullah with a margin of over two lakh votes in Baramullah, he can be expected to garner votes in the assembly elections too. This means the PDP in south Kashmir and the NC in north will now be facing heat from the Jamaat and Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP).
It needs to be mentioned here that the Jamaat remains a banned organisation till date though its leaders had sent feelers to Central government that they want to take part in the elections. This had happened prior to the Lok Sabha elections some months ago. Before assembly elections were announced, the Jamaat leaders were in touch with operatives of the intelligence agencies and conveyed their willingness to take part in the elections. However, the Central government did not lift the ban on Jamaat and as such it has decided to put up its candidates as independents.
Who gains from the Jamaat participation in the coming elections is a question that is being asked in Kashmir often these days. There may not be a straight and simple answer to that but NC sure has been on the wrong side (the other side) in all elections in the past. In 1986 and later, it was the Congress and its leader late Mufti Mohammad Sayeed who could mobilise Jamaat cadres in his favour. Much later, in 2002 also, the Jamaat is reported to have helped his party, the PDP.
The direct participation of the Jamaat in the elections is likely to be detrimental to the interests of the PDP. The mobilisation of Jamaat supporters has also gone against the NC, right from the days of the Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah. Besides harming both the NC and the PDP, the Jamaat’s proxy candidates (independents on paper) and Rashid’s AIP are bad news for these parties as they can upstage their candidates in many candidates.
Overall, before the first vote has been cast in the first round of polling on October 18, Jamaat and Rashid seem all set to launch a pincer attack on NC, PDP and other mainstream parties in the Kashmir valley.
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