Fact Check: Union Govt issued early warnings before Wayanad Disaster, Kerala CM’s claim on forecasting proved false

Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan while addressing the Independence Day Parade, at Thiruvananthapuram said that our country is not able to forecast natural disasters. He stated, that what we need is ‘accurate forecast’ and ‘not general warnings’. He says, the experiences world over prove it. And, our country has to rise to that level. Pinarayi said that despite our achievements in science and technology, we still are not able to forecast natural calamities in advance. CM said that country is unable to devise a mechanism to forecast disasters to save the life and properties of the people. CM was obviously referring to the Wayanad disaster.

Impartial observers see the CM’s speech as a tacit attack against the Union Government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modiji. Therefore, people are forced to go back to the time-sheet of the Union Government’s warning with respect to Waynad disaster.

What are the facts ?

Union Home Minister Amit Shah told the Lok Sabha, on July 31, that if Government of Kerala had taken timely actions, Wayanad disaster could have been averted; Union Government had given the alert to the state and NDRF was deployed on July 23. Home Minister said that warnings were given to Kerala Government twice again, on July 24 and July 25. On July 26, a warning was given that there was a chance of heavy rainfall of more than 20 cms, and there were chances of landslides, there could be mudflow and people could lose lives in it.

Amit Shah alleged that the disaster was due to the lapse and delay in executing safety arrangements.

However, Amit Shah also stated that the Narendra Modi Government was standing like a “rock” with the Kerala government and people of the state in the moment of the tragedy and promised all helps from the Union Government.

Amit Shah stated that there was failure on the part of the Government of Kerala. Warning was given about the 20 cms rain fall and landslides. Kerala should have taken it seriously. But, state government failed in it. Amit Shah wondered how come the state government ignore the warnings and why did they shy away from evacuating the people. Home Minister added that Kerala had undergone floods; centre had given warning to other states with chances for floods.

Lok Sabha witnessed turmoil in connection with Wayanad. BJP member Thejaswi Soorya stated that Kerala has been undergoing similar mishaps during the last five years. The illegal constructions on Western Ghats caused the disaster. Soorya added that Government could not find a permanent solution to the issue.  He asked what action Rahul Gandhi took in this regard. (Rahul Gandhi represented Wayanad in the Lok Sabha for more than five years).

Congress leader K.C. Venugopal immediately came to the rescue of the CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) stating that it was the time for rescue operations and not for political allegations.

Immediately after the disaster Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan tried to counter the Union Home Minister’s argument saying that Centre did not give any Red Alert warning, but only Orange Alert. He added that it was not the time for ’blame game’.

But, according to Meteorological science, Orange Alert reportedly forecasts heavy rainfall exceeding 115.6 mm and up to 204.4 mm within 24 hours. It signifies a great risk of flooding in the streets, streams, and low-lying areas. Disruption to transportation, power outages, and landslides become possibilities.

V. Muraleedaran, BJP leader and former Union Minister, had told the media persons those days that Kerala Government ignored the Central warnings. He said that Amit Shah told the facts while answering the questions on the floor of the house.

Kerala BJP president K Surendran also criticised the Kerala government stating that it was evident that the state government completely ignored the early warnings issued by the Union Government. “The state government’s inaction led to increase in the casualties. It is unpardonable”.

Immediately after the calamities the calamities broke out, Union Government had deployed Army for relief activities. NDRF, Kerala Police, Fire & Rescue Department and RSS-inspired Sevabharati are still busy with their laudable missions. The construction of Bailey bridge by the army engineers was a great leap forward in connection with the relief activities. The bridge has the capacity to facilitate the free movement of heavy earth movers like JCB and Hitachi.

The Prime Minister’s visit to the disaster-hit Wayanad was a noble and humane gesture. He visited the hospitals, disaster-hit dilapidated school, few houses in the surroundings, and walked over the Bailey bridge constructed by the army. The reports suggest that he had walked more than a kilometre in the disaster-hit area wearing ordinary shoes (not gum boots). He cuddled the little children in the hospital and relief camps. Some of them had lost one of their patents and some others had lost both. Media and even political opponents hailed PM’s choice of time for visit. He took more than a week before he made the visit so that his security arrangements did not hinder the relief activities. And, after the aerial and surface survey, PM told the Kerala CM, ministers and officials that ‘money will not be an issue for the relief and rehabilitation activities’.

In short, Government of Kerala will be held in high esteem  if they could appreciate the timely and right decisions and actions of the Union Government when the parts of the country face calamities and disasters.