A nation’s foreign policy is strongly influenced by the imperatives of its neighbourhood, its strategic environment and the perception of its own status in the international community. Bharat’s extended neighbourhood, which some analysts define as one of widening concentric circles around a central axis of historical and cultural commonalities, is an appealing definition, and the only rational means of demonstrating its future great power status.
Fostering Peace & Security
In a global context, foreign policy has become a mechanism by which a nation pursues its legitimate aspirations based on its national security interests externally through bilateral and multilateral agendas.
Bharat’s permanent membership of the Security Council flows as a natural concomitant as well as its legitimate right and obligation to ensure international peace and security in an extended regional neighbourhood as well as in the Indian Ocean. A strong candidate for Permanent Membership to the Security Council, Bharat in 2024 is a nascent global player and a potential superpower.
What Is the Modi Doctrine?
The foreign policy of Prime Minister Modi is sometimes referred to as the ‘Modi Doctrine’. Basically, it concerns the policy initiatives made towards Bharat’s other strategic partners by the current Government after the Prime Minister assumed office for his first term on May 26, 2014, and is now into an unprecedented third term.
The ‘Modi Doctrine’ includes extensive interaction with Bharat’s vast diaspora- the world’s second largest – and the utilisation of its soft power. This soft power, as disseminated through her inclusive cultural and civilisational heritage across millennia, demonstrates that the values of tolerance, inclusiveness and cross fertilisation of cultures, which are an intrinsic part of our civilisation, are more important than ever before in today’s troubled world. Bharat’s civilisational heritage is present in distant parts of the world, taken by Indians by sea or by land from ancient times.
With the contribution of and partnership with its huge diaspora, Bharatiya culture has emerged as a force to connect, to build relations and to heal the ruptures created by history and politics. As cultural actors, Bharat’s diaspora is increasingly challenging the territorial limits that nation states impose on culture. It is using soft power to demonstrate India’s unique global legacy and demanding that all States use their borders as bridges rather than as barriers.
Finding Global Solutions
Fast forward to 2047. Bharat would need to recall that during her G-20 Presidency, at a challenging and watershed moment coinciding with a period of flux internationally, it sought to find pragmatic global solutions for these challenges. The G-20 Presidency was used to make culture the force to connect, to build relations and to heal the ruptures created by history and politics. India ensured that the voice of the Global South that it represents will prevail. Bharat followed the philosophy of Maha Upanishads that has become synonymous with its soft power and growing international status.
Ayang nijah paro veti
Ganna laghu chetasaam.
Udarcharitana tu Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam.
Meaning
(This is mine, this is yours, This thinking is for the narrow-minded.
It is only for the generous hearted that the earth is one family).
Bharat would need to disseminate this message and use her soft power even more so in 2047. Bharat will face many challenges in 2047, given that in August 24, the international community appears uneasily and reluctantly awaiting a widening conflict between Iran and Israel, which could spread further in the region. These tensions are further exacerbated by a seemingly unending conflict in Ukraine. War appears to be widening on both sides of the European continent, eerily reminiscent of the pre-World War II scenario. Is another Great War waiting on the horizon?
Bharat’s Nuanced Approach
The attack of Hamas on Israel from the Gaza Strip on October 7, 2023 definitively demonstrated that the global order was shifting in ways which, if not addressed, could lead to another great war. It stopped the growing détente between Arab States led by Saudi Arabia and Israel and the effort to establish an ‘India, Middle East, Europe Economic corridor’, which would include Israel, along with India, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan and the EU, as announced with much fanfare at the New Delhi G 20 Summit.
The retaliatory attacks by Israel and growing media coverage globally of the deaths of Palestinian women and children caused a further dilemma, not only for moderate Arab States, but also for Israel’s hard core supporters, including the US and India. One could detect shifts and evolutions in India’s approach from outright condemnation of Hamas and support of Israel to a more moderate and carefully nuanced position.
Tensions Worsen Post-Assassination
Now, with the audacious assassination, in the heart of Tehran, of Ismail Haniyeh, a top leader of Hamas, reportedly by a short range missile fired outside the VVIP Government guest house, tensions between Iran and Israel have moved to a new high. Not only was it an egregious violation of international law but it brought two major and antagonistic players, Iran and Israel, with their supporters and proxies, closer to a direct conflict.
The timing is very problematic, with the rise of the far right in Italy, Hungary and France, and a highly polarised Presidential campaign in the USA with less than 100 days to go.
Bharat Can End the Conflict
To add to the complexities of the situation, Ukraine appears to be steadily losing territory to Russia, while obstinately refusing to negotiate for peace. In the meantime, Bharat is balancing out the impact of PM Modi’s highly successful visit to Russia with a planned visit to Ukraine, with the PM possibly travelling by train from Poland to Kiev. There is greater speculation and talk of a possible Indian role in ending the conflict, or at least creating positive signalling, leading to peace talks.
Bharat that is India in 2047 will be virtually a developed country and the world’s third largest economy. Will she be a permanent member of the Security Council as is her legitimate due? This would depend on China not using its veto against her membership bid which is supported by the P4, without China.
Regardless of the outcome, Bharat in 2047 would play her role as an established major power in other regional groupings, including G 20 and Quad, and possibly a member of the expanded G 7.
The emerging world order would provide more challenges. The Ukraine conflict would have been decided through a stalemate, like the Korean War.
The situation in Gaza and West Bank would continue to be the most ominous threats to international peace and security. In Gaza, an entire generation has in less than a year developed an implacable hatred for the Israeli Government. The Palestinian national poet, the widely respected Mahmoud Darwich, said:
You have stolen the orchards of my ancestors, And the land that I cultivated, And you left nothing for us,
Except for these rocks…..
If I become hungry,
The usurper’s flesh will be my food’.
It is not clear whether by 2047, a more liberal dispensation would have come to power in Tel Aviv, which would accept a two State solution. Can reconciliation, leading to autonomous self governance, become a reality?
By 2047, Bharat should have been able to settle the border dispute with China. Failure to do so, and given the gradual shrinking of the asymmetrical military imbalance, especially in a conventional war, would result in a large part of our resources focussed on building up military infrastructure etc, and leave much less for health, agriculture and development, essential for a balanced out and developed Bharat in 2047.
What are Bharat’s Foreign Policy Options in 2047?
India’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, was of the view that India should stay away from ‘alliances’ and ‘arrangements’. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh took this a step further when he said, “India is too large a country to be boxed into any alliance or regional or sub regional arrangements, whether trade,
economic or political.”
This has changed under PM Modi. While Bharat, for excellent strategic reasons, may indeed continue to shy away from “alliances,” she has become part of a rapidly increasing number of ‘arrangements’ of differing purpose, cohesiveness and geographic extension. Each arrangement comes with obligations that impact India’s foreign policy options. India may need to rethink its position on alliances. In fact, she has already done so in her partnership with the USA. There is also the urgent need for Bharat to move centrestage in 2047 as she becomes the world’s third largest economy. Political thinker and analyst Bernd Von Muenchow-Pohl says: “India remains wary of assuming global responsibilities that might impose limitations on the options available for pursuing its own immediate national interests … While India is becoming comfortable with its new weight as an emerged power, it does not appear quite ready yet to step up to the plate as a co-manager of the global order”.
This must change by 2047. Bharat needs to effectively demonstrate its emerging great power status to its strategic partners who are now anxious to reach out and consolidate a potentially dynamic partnership. If successful, it could alter fundamentally the geopolitics of this millennium. In this endeavour, urging Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam to reconcile the bitterly divided world order of 2047 may be Bharat’s gift to the world in 2047. It flows from Swami Vivekananda’s message when Bharat was under the colonial yoke.
He said: India for thousands of years peacefully existed. Even earlier, when history had no record and tradition dared not peer into the gloom of that intense past, Even from then until now, ideas after ideas have marched out from her, But every word has been spoken with a blessing behind it and peace before it. We, of all nations in the world, have never been a conquering race, and that blessing is on our head
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