Bangladesh, a nation historically marked by its struggle for independence, is currently facing a multi-faceted crisis that has significant internal and external dimensions. Sheik Hasina who served as Bangladesh longest serving Prime Minister of 20+ years of Premiership is forced to exile after the internal upheaval driven by contentious political dynamics and socio-economic issues, while the external pressures involved intricate geo-political manoeuvrings by global powers. This article focuses into the current crisis in Bangladesh, its root causes, and the profound implications for neighbouring Bharat.
Internal Causes: Political Unrest and Economic Struggles
The internal strife in Bangladesh is fuelled by a series of protests centred around the controversial 30 per cent reservation in government jobs for families of the Bangla Mukti Vahini veterans. This quota system, intended to honour those who fought in the 1971 war of independence against Pakistan, has become a flashpoint of contention between different political and social groups.
Historical Context and Political Rivalry
The quota system has long been a source of debate. In 2018, mass student protests forced Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government to suspend the quotas. However, the High Court’s recent reinstatement of these quotas has reignited protests. The Supreme Court’s promise to rule on the issue on August 7 has done little to quell the unrest, as demonstrators demand a merit-based system instead of one perceived as benefiting Hasina’s Awami League supporters.
Economic Realities
Despite some growth in private sector job opportunities, government jobs remain highly coveted in Bangladesh for their stability and benefits. The competition is fierce, with around 400,000 graduates vying for just 3,000 civil service positions annually. This scarcity exacerbates frustrations, particularly among students who see the quota system as an additional hurdle in an already challenging job market. Under the quota system, government jobs are also reserved for women, disabled people and members of ethnic minorities, but students have protested primarily on the jobs reserved for veterans’ families. Post Covid inflation, high unemployment and Sheik Hasina’s alleged comment that protestors are “Razzakars” has added fuel to already simmering fire
Opposition and Accusations
The political landscape is further complicated by accusations from Hasina’s government against the main opposition parties, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and radical party Jamaat-e-Islami, of instigating chaos. The BNP’s support for the protests has intensified the situation, with Hasina urging patience until the court’s verdict.
External Causes: Geo-Political Manoeuvrings
Bangladesh’s strategic location in the Bay of Bengal has made it a focal point for global powers like China, the US, and India, each seeking to expand their influence in the region.
China’s Influence
China was seen to be favouring Sheikh Hasina’s during recent elections despite calls of human right violation from US think tank. However the relation seems to have nose-dived after Sheik Hasina returned to Bangladesh without completing the planned trip to China. In the recent meeting with President Xi Jinping was expected to yield significant aid, yet only a fraction materialized. In response, Hasina announced the Teesta River project’s allocation to India, a move signalling Dhaka’s attempt to balance Chinese and Indian interests.
Western Interests
The West, particularly the US, is keen on maintaining influence in Bangladesh to counteract Chinese and Russian presence. Bangladesh’s robust textile industry, accounting for 88.35% of its export earnings in fiscal 2023, also attracts significant Western economic interest.
US and Russian Strategies
Bangladesh’s Prime Minister has hinted at foreign plots to destabilize her government, pointing to a proposal from a foreign entity to establish a “Christian state” using parts of Bangladesh and Myanmar. This assertion underscores the strategic importance of Bangladesh, evidenced by the US’s alleged long-term goal to establish a base on St. Martin Island and Russia’s recent diplomatic and economic engagements, including the financing of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant.
Impact on India: Navigating a Complex Landscape
The instability in Bangladesh presents a multifaceted challenge for India, given their shared history, culture, and geographic proximity.
Security Concerns
An unstable Bangladesh poses significant security risks for India, particularly as it contends with Pakistan-sponsored terrorism on its western front. The absence of a nationalist supportive government in West Bengal further complicates India’s strategic calculations.
Geo-Political Rivalries
China’s “String of Pearls” strategy, aimed at encircling India with a network of military and commercial installations, heightens India’s security concerns. Ports like Gwadar, Hambantota, and Sittwe could potentially serve as Chinese naval bases, exacerbating regional tensions.
Economic and Strategic Relations
Despite these challenges, India and Bangladesh maintain robust bilateral relations. Recent activities include the inauguration of the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline and collaborative efforts in border management and defense. High-level visits and trade relations, with bilateral trade amounting to USD 15.9 billion in FY 2022-23, underscore the depth of their economic ties.
Collaborative Development Efforts
India has extended significant development assistance to Bangladesh, including four Lines of Credit amounting to around USD 8 billion. Projects like the Akhaura-Agartala rail link and the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline illustrate the tangible benefits of this cooperation.
Conclusion
The current crisis in Bangladesh, driven by internal political strife and external geopolitical pressures, has profound implications for the region, particularly for India. As Bangladesh navigates these turbulent waters, India’s role as a neighbour and strategic partner will be crucial in shaping the outcome. A matter of significant concern is that approximately 1.3 crore Hindu families are living in Bangladesh, and there have been reports of increased atrocities and killings of Hindus and Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League supporters. As Bharat shares a 4,096 km border with Bangladesh, there might be a huge influx of refugees entering the Indian border states of West Bengal and the Northeast in the coming days.
The international community’s stance adds to the complexity. As per media reports, the US has revoked Sheikh Hasina’s visa, and the UK seems reluctant to provide asylum, with protests in Leeds against her as well. Sheikh Hasina, facing opposition allegations of being soft on Bharat and often dubbed an Indian agent, finds herself in a precarious position. None of the Islamic countries have come forward to extend a helping hand for Sheik Hasina so far. This situation presents a catch-22 for Modi’s leadership, challenging his acumen in handling potential refugees and deciding how long to provide shelter to Sheikh Hasina.
Bharat faced a similar dilemma when the US forces left Afghanistan, leading to the Taliban’s control. Through swift diplomatic measures, Bharat has managed to foster a working relationship with the current Taliban regime. Drawing from this experience, Bharat can approach the Bangladesh crisis with a strategic mindset aimed at ensuring stability and fostering collaborative development. Diplomatic engagement, economic support, and cultural ties will be key to mitigating the risks and harnessing the potential benefits of this complex relationship.
By prioritising humanitarian concerns while maintaining strategic interests, Bharat can navigate this crisis effectively, reinforcing its role as a regional leader and upholding its commitment to peace and stability in South Asia. The situation in Bangladesh is a test of Bharat’s diplomatic resilience and its ability to balance regional dynamics in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
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