Bloodshed in Bangladesh and a politically engineered coup with multiple inside and outside support have refreshed some reminiscences of the 1975 coup in which the Banglad Army took over in a bloody coup and killed Sheik Mujib and his family members. The escape of Sheikh Hasina who was in Germany sought asylum in India to which the Indira Gandhi-led government approved. A similar situation seems to be repeating, with multiple social and political variables shaking Bangaladesh’s political stability, resulting in Sheikh Hasina’s ouster. New Delhi is caught with difficult calculations this time.
The History
It was 15th August 1975- When India was experiencing two different moods: one was a hot breeze of emergency, and the other was Independence Day celebrations. Little did we know that a secretly cooked conspiracy was about to bring sleepless nights for New Delhi. A group of Bangladesh Army officers led by Major Dalim successfully staged a coup in Dhaka by storming Sheik Mujib’s residence. The Bangladeshi Army killed Mujib and his family members. It was bloodshed everywhere in the residence. Luckily, Mujib’s daughter, Sheik Hasina(PM of Bangladesh today), was in Germany on the day of the coup, and she was brought safely to Delhi by R&AW. All these developments and assassination of Sheik Mujib gave shockwaves to founder and Chief of R&AW R.N Kao that how situation drastically changed in just four years. Almost two hundred people were killed on the day of the coup, including Mujib’s supporters who resisted the coup and those who protested the move of the Bangladeshi Army. This coup also alarmed New Delhi because Mujib was close to India and stood for secular principles. Now, the change in power by the Army can prove costly for India.
After the first shockwave the second phase of a shockwave caused tremors in New Delhi, Pakistan was the first country to recognize the new regime and lost no time in offering a substantial amount of aid of fifty thousand tonnes of rice and fifteen million of cloth even Saudi Arabia granted recognition immediately after the new regime took over which it had not done in the four years of Mujib’s regime even China welcomed the change in the regime.
The US-ISI Axis History In Bangaldesh Coup
After four years of the 1971 war, the coup has created an opportunity for Pakistan to re-establish their control in Pakistan and re-strengthen the ISI-CIA and China Nexus against India also to control the damage of 1971. The President of Bangladesh had started to lean toward Pro-Ismalic and Pro-Western countries and further switching to an anti-India posture. The then ISI- CIA axis were apprehensive of India’s growing regional power which could have provided sufficient political space to USSR in the region. Futhermore, US security establishment feared that India could harm West Pakistan which could have jeopardized US’s South Asian influence as USSR could have got good opportunity towards Afghanistan much earlier than 1979. The objectives of US and Pakistan were clear. Both wanted geostrategic and political depth for alter the balance of power in the South Asia.
US-Pak Axis Renewed Again and Implications
US’s sphere of influence seems to be diminishing in South Asian region post Afghanistan episode. New Delhi’s strategic autonomy and closeness with Russia at one end and China’s increasing its maritime influence and making belligerent attempt towards Taiwan on the other hand are complicating US options in South Asia. Making of Indo-Pacific (AUKUS) as a good counter security construct against China will take time and US needs some geopolitical playfield to swing the current balance of power in South Asia. During cold war, Washington DC did use Dhaka affairs as a geopolitical playfield to fashionably enforce Truman doctrine to challenge strong strategic Indo-Soviet bond. Perhaps, this time too Washington DC’s strategic calculations maybe guided by targeting the Awami Legaue as regime change in Bangladesh will surely open the room for US to influence the balance of power politically in South Asia.
For Pakistan, It would be strategic revival and Islamabad will use Bangaldesh soil to revive its terror machines especially Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami Bangladesh (HuJI) Pakistan backed terror group which suspected to played role in Jaipur bombings in 2001, time which where Khaleda- Zia led BNP was in power in Bangaldesh. This clears one assessment that Pakistan would recablirate its terror strategies viz-a viz Bangaldesh and create security headaches especially in North East. The strategic relationship with US would also witness slight increase as US may realize Pakistan’s relevance in holding the ground for opposition and radicals in Bangaldesh to keep Awami League at the bay and therefore US may re-introspect its strategic discourse with Pakistan for timebeing which obiovously strategically and economically benefit Pakistan.
For China, this development won’t be that impacting as China would do its economic business as usual, though its intensity would increase as BNP, in their tenure a decade back, had given strategic and political investment to develop the Bangla-China relationship. However, with US’s political and strategic presence, China factor won’t be able to expand its width in Bangladesh’s socio-economic politics.
Internal Reasons or Psychological Warfare?
Decades ago Sheik Mujib was unable to run the country smoothly and solve the crises effectively as he didn’t pay heed to the economic collapse of Bangladesh and failed to take effective steps he even failed to control the chronic anti-India feeling which was growing slowly in the country as former PM of Pakistan Bhutoo visited Bangladesh in 1974 which provided pro Muslim group to showcase their power. He didn’t do anything effective to remove or ease the economic burden on Bangla citizens. All this created a sense of anti-Mujib feeling in the mind of people. Similarly, it has been alleged that Hasina might have made some mistakes, but those allegations, to some extent, are unfounded as Bangladesh’s economy, which is according to the Boston Consultancy Group(BCG) report, is faring quite well. Dhaka was also lobbying hard for GSP plus status with US and EU which will cut import duties to zero. The developments at economic level was satisfactory but the Job quota issue propelled the protestors especially the Civil society on strees. But it too has catch, Hasina was ready to negotiate and even ready to reconsider the quota decision then the need of bloodshed and protests remain unconvincing. Even if there was a genuine resentment against Hasina, she should have been ousted through constitutional mandate, which was elections. The same public voted for her and gave her a landslide victory this year by getting around 250 seats out of 300, and the opposition BNP only got nominal numbers.
Non-State Actors
Back in the late 1970s, some Islamic Political leaders were worried about Hindu India and West Bengal’s cultural influence because of Mujib secularism. The professional Bangladesh Army favoured Pakistan because some sects in the Bangla Army were POWs and they had a very positive view of Pakistan as they received good treatment. The ISI has activated some pro-Islamic groups operating from the UK to increase the Pan-Islamic view and anti-India posture in the new regime. This showed the presence non-state actors and the possibility of psychological warfare against Hasina’s government by ISI on CIA’s patronage and finances.
Options For New Delhi?
The objectives for New Delhi almost remain the same as they were in 1975, but this time, the scope for making large strategic calculations and diplomatic outreach would, to some extent, get limited. The objectives in coming time should be:
A-To Prevent Anti Indian Foreign Powers Using Bangladesh as a base of operations for Anti-Indian activities.
B To prevent the development of a situation in Bangladesh which might compel the Hindu minority to migrate to India
C- To have a friendly government in Dhaka
D- To inculcate as many mutually advantageous link as possible and get Bangladesh more involved with India.
Though all options would be difficult to negotiate this time but few options have potential to get build up with the passage of time. The only difference that New Delhi faces is a more complicated geopolitical scenario and multiple strategic and political variables as for Bangladesh, the situation was distinctively different as in 1975 the coup was pure a millitary construct but this time the coup has got a civil society’s support along with political parties upsurge. However, there are lessons from 1975 that would help India to chalk a strategic-diplomatic path for further engagement in the Bangladesh crises.
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