Pakistan: Gulf between Shehbaz Sharif’s PML-N, PPP widening and that can lead to political instability in near future

“Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif should advise dissolving the National Assembly and call for re-elections if the government is under serious threats,” PPP Secretary General Nayyar Bukhari said in a statement on Sunday. “We are ready to strengthen the government, provided it delivers.”

“If the government has such threats, then why it has not shared these with us (PPP)?” he wondered. The statement has fanned speculations that all was not well between PML-N and PPP, partners in the Federal government, with the later supporting Sharif government from outside. This also points to political instability in the days and months ahead as the Sharif government does not have a clear majority on its own. For that, it is dependent on the PPP to provide it numbers and that support is crucial for its functioning.

Mr Bukhari said the PPP had decided before the February 8 polls to nominate Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari as the next prime minister. Despite serious reservations about the election results, the PPP accepted them reluctantly to ensure democratic continuity. The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) was incompetent and had failed to hold fair elections, he said.

The PPP leader’s stance was in consonance with that of opposition Pakistan Tehreek Insaf (PTI) of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. The PTI has repeatedly accused the ECP of rigging the elections. It has been saying that many of independents owing affiliation to the party were falsely declared to have lost the elections even when they had won.

Mr Bukhari pointed to nationwide protests over high electricity tariffs as evidence of the government’s failure to address key issues. The government, he said, must come up with solutions to provide relief to the masses. Incidentally, the PML-N government is being supported from outside by the PPP. For some time after the February 8 elections for the National Assembly, no party came forward to form the government due to split mandate.

In these elections, independents owing allegiance to PTI had emerged as the single biggest block, with PML-N at number two position. The PPP led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari had come a distant third. However, after behind the curtain parleys, the PPP decided to support PML-N government, but decided against joining it.

The July 12 verdict of the Supreme Court on reserved seats is what seems to have hit the Shehbaz Sharif government hard. Chief Justice of Pakistan Qazi Faez Isa, who apparently has a soft corner for the Sharif-led government, found himself in a minority on this historic 8-5 verdict. Justice Isa’s term in the apex position ends in October and it is widely believed that the government may face problems after that.

Within the last fortnight, this statement from PPP is the second time it has taken a view in contrast with the PML-N. On the earlier occasion, the PML-N had declared that it wanted to ban PTI under Article 6 of the Constitution. However, to its chagrin, the PPP distanced itself from this banning business and declared that it was not in support of any such action. The PML-N had to beat a hasty retreat thereafter and the noises about banning PTI have died down.

Some important PML-N and PTI leaders had predicted a political meltdown later this year, as early as November or in December. Analyst Ahmed Bilal Mehmoob suggested that Mr Bukhari’s comments might be a reaction to these statements, a report of the Dawn newspaper said.

Mr Bukhari’s statement was given to a private TV channel during an interview and it seems to have the backing of Bilawal as also his father President Asif Zardari. In a related development, Defence Minister Khawaja Asif recently warned of a potential constitutional crisis in November or December. This is because many PTI leaders hope for a political shift in their favour following Justice Isa’s retirement in October.

PTI stock rising

The PTI has challenged elections in many constituencies, both in the National Assembly and the four provincial assemblies. So far, there has been no hearing on these multiple petitions under the current CJP. However, once he retires in October, the hearings on these petitions may start. That can pose serious problems for the Sharif government and its burgeoning unpopularity due to a harsh budget may add to its downfall.

Some PPP leaders have said that the relations with PML-N have soured mainly because of the recent narrative built by the government against the Benazir Bhutto regime of the 1990s for its contracts with independent power producers (IPPs). This narrative is clearly an attempt to “shift the blame” for high electricity prices. Besides, PPP legislators in Punjab have also faced unresponsiveness on the part of Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz.

Senior PPP leader and spokesperson Shazia Marri said that the gulf between the PPP and PML-N is widening. She cited several issues, including the non-implementation of agreed terms, lack of pre-budget consultation etc as major points of difference. She said it was unacceptable that PML-N turns to the PPP only when it has some legislative business in the National Assembly. On a day to day basis, it prefers not to be in touch with the PPP and often ignores its views.