Bharat has many challenges, from achieving economic sustainability to securing the nation from external forces. However, one of the major challenges faced by the country today is unsustainable population growth. It is not that population growth itself is a problem. The question is whether we have enough resources that would support and sustain the needs and expectations of the entire population? This question becomes even more relevant when we have adopted the Western model of development, which is based on unabated consumerism and not sustainable in any case, especially for a country like Bharat, with a population of 140 crores.
Demography and development concerns
There is a positive side to the population, which is called demographic dividend. Many countries like Japan, China and other European nations are facing the ageing population problem. As a result, they are facing a dearth of workforce and are forced to import workers from South Asia and Africa. Bharat is one of the fortunate nations which has a young population. Owing to this, all the world’s manufacturers are eyeing Bharat to move their manufacturing units here as the country provides both cheap labour and a huge market. Still, it is risky as it is tough for any developing nation to update the skills of its population in a limited period. Fulfilling everyone’s desires can become a challenging task for any Government. Many problems arise due to the growing population, like accessibility and affordability of quality healthcare, providing a value-based and employable education to all, creating sustainable urban amenities and other basic services. The most important dimension is providing security to everyone as sheer population explosion can be a source of social tensions and conflicts over sharing resources.
Need to Reevaluate Population Policy: Future Needs
Now coming to the point, the Government should reevaluate its population policy 2000 to rein in uncontrolled population growth. Notably, the key features of this policy were: (1) To raise the age of marriage for girls to 18 years and for boys to 21 years. (2) To take special measures to raise the level of female education in all States. (3) Raising the monetary incentive to persons undergoing sterilisation according to the number of children in the family. The key target of this policy was to achieve zero growth rate of population by 2045, reduce infant mortality rate of below 30 per thousand live births, reduce maternal mortality ratio of below 100 per 1, 00,000 live births, reduce birth rate to 21 per 1000 by 2010 and reduce total fertility rate (TFR) to 2.1 by 2010
However, according to the latest round of National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), in 2019-21, TFR among Hindus was estimated to be 1.9, while among Muslims it was 2.4. Also, between 2001 and 2011, Muslims grew by 24.6 per cent and the Hindus by 16.8 per cent. The Muslim growth is 46 per cent above that of Hindus and 39 per cent above the national average. Therefore, it is clearly evident that Hindus have adopted policy compared to the Muslims.
In fact, population policy 2000 has succeeded in achieving few of its goals. As per Census 2011, Bharat’s population was 121.1 crore with 48.5 per cent female population and the total population is expected to reach 152.2 crore during 2036 with a slightly improved percentage of female population to 48.8 per cent.
Also, according to Population Projection Report 2011-2036, the population of Bharat is expected to increase from 121.1 crores to 152.2 crores during the period 2011-2036 – an increase of 25.7 percent in twenty- five years at the rate of 1.0 percent annually. As a consequence, the density of population will increase from 368 to 463 persons per square kilometer.
Also, the report added that the crude birth rate will decline from 20.1 during 2011-15 to 13.1 during 2031-35 because of falling level of total fertility. In contrast, the crude death rate is expected to increase marginally due to changing age structure of the population with the rising median age as a result of continuing decline in fertility and increase in the expectation of life at birth. It will increase from 7.2 during 2011-15 to 7.3 during 2031-35.
Demography and Democracy – Population Imbalance
Though, here it is important to mention the answer of Dr Mohan Bhagwat, Sarsanghchalak, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, from his interview with Organiser in 2023, on population growth. “Population is an asset, but it can be a heavy burden too. It is essential that we frame a thoughtful, long-term population policy. And the same should be equally implemented on everyone. But this cannot be done forcefully; people must be educated,” said RSS Sarsanghchalak Dr Mohan Bhagwat.
Dr Bhagwatji had also highlighted the issue of population imbalance. Sarsanghchalak Dr Bhagwat said, “Population imbalance is a practical problem. Wherever imbalance has taken place, the country has got divided. This has been the global trend and this has happened because of the aggressive nature of people and civilisations. Only the Hindu society stands apart, showing no aggression whatsoever. In the interest of pacifism, non-violence, democracy, secularism etc., preservation of those who are not aggressive is essential. We have seen catastrophic results in Timor, Sudan, Pakistan. On this issue, we must put an end to politicking and appeasement. In a completely non-partisan manner—without any bias either for the Hindus or any other community—we need to ask objectively what led to the creation of Pakistan?”
The changing demography in many States, especially in bordering areas, is a matter of serious concern. Demographic change, more than any other security threat, has the potential to destabilise the country. The past betrayal by radical Islamist forces, who looted and tried to destroy the Bharatiya culture, serves as a stark reminder of the risks we face.
Demography and Religious imbalance and impact on democracy
Demographic changes in a particular area or constituency also changes the behaviour of the local population, which clearly impacts local governance and leadership. For instance, recently, a video of women being flogged publically in West Bengal by a group of Islamic radicals went viral. One of the main accused of this heinous crime was Tajmul, alias “JCB”, a close aide of a local Trinamool Congress leader of Chopra in Uttar Dinajpur district. Chopra MLA from TMC, Hamidul Rahaman said, “The woman’s activities were unsocial.” There is some code and justice according to Muslim Rashtra.” Isn’t this statement alarming for a democratic nation like Bharat, where a democratically elected member is defending the flocking of women publicly by giving an example of Muslims Rashtra like Afghanistan under the Taliban? The one thing that comes to our mind is why the entire Opposition, who ran a fake campaign of “Save Constitution”, maintained a studied silence on this issue. Why did feminists refrained from commenting on this? Despite this “Muslim Rastra” statement, why did Mamata Banerjee not take action against Hamidul Rahaman?
The answer to all these questions is “Demographic Change”. And a growing number of Muslim constituencies, where the Muslim vote bank is decisive. Even in this Lok Sabha election 2024, the majority of Muslims voted for I.N.D.I. Alliance. And from Congress to Samajwadi Party to Trinamool Congress performed well where Muslims were in decisive numbers. No wonder Rahul preferred to contest from the Muslim-dominated Wayanad in Kerala. Also, one must not be surprised when Congress and other Opposition leaders talk about Muslim reservations. Therefore, one should not expect criticism or condemnation by these parties even if the worst crime is committed by the members of this community.
The role of demographic design in a democracy can be understood from one more example that shows how political parties are forced to make decisions according to the local population. In 2021, the Congress-led Punjab Government on May 14, announced the creation of a new district of Malerkotla, taking the number of districts in the State to 23. The Congress Government chose to announce the State’s only Muslim-majority town as Eid gift to Muslims.
Recalling the history, Congress said that Malerkotla was established in 1454 by Sheikh Sadruddin-i-Jahan from Afghanistan, and subsequently, the State of Malerkotla was established in 1657 by Bayazid Khan. According to the 2011 census, Muslims constituted 68.5 per cent of Malerkotla city, and Hindus and Sikhs formed 20 and 9.5 per cent, respectively.
Demographic imbalance not only creates problems for democratic imbalance, but also national security. How many of us remember the speech of Islamist Sharjeel Imam, who was part of the Shaheen Bagh Organising Committee? In one of his speeches, he said, “The time has come when we should tell non-Muslims that if they sympathise with us, then they must stand with us on our terms. If they can’t agree to our terms, they can’t sympathise with us. I have said it in the past that if we can organise five lakh people, we will be able to permanently cut off Assam from India. If not permanently, then at least for a month or two.”
Steps taken to control the population of the country have yielded adequate results during the last decade. But in this regard, the Akhil Bharatiya Karyakari Mandal is of the opinion that the severe demographic changes brought forth by the analysis of the religious data of Census 2011 highlight the necessity of the review of population policy. Vast differences in growth rates of different religious groups, infiltration and conversion resulting in religious imbalance of the population-ratio, especially in border areas may emerge as a threat to the unity, integrity and cultural identity of the country.
Although Bharat was one of the early countries in the world to announce as early as in 1952 that it will have population planning measures, it was only in year 2000 that a comprehensive population policy was formulated and a population commission was formed. The policy aimed at achieving a stable but healthy population by the year 2045 by optimising the fertility rate to the ideal figure of 2.1 total fertility rate [TFR]. It was expected that as this aim is in accordance with our national resources and expected future requirements, it will be uniformly applied to all the sections of society. However, the National Fertility and Health Survey [NFHS] of 2005-6 and the 0-6 age group population percentage data of religion in Census 2011, both indicate that the TFR and child ratio is uneven across the religions. This is reflected in the fact that the share of population of religions of Bharatiya origin which was 88 percent has come down to 83.8 percent while the Muslim population which was 9.8 percent has increased to 14.23 percent during the period 1951-2011.
Menace of Illegal Bangladeshis
In addition to that, the rate of growth of Muslim population has been higher than the national average, in the districts of border States of the country like Assam, West Bengal and Bihar, clearly indicating the unabated infiltration from Bangladesh. The Report of the Upamanyu Hazarika Commission appointed by the Supreme Court and several judicial pronouncements from time to time have also corroborated these facts. It is also a fact that the infiltrators are usurping the rights of citizens of these States and are becoming a heavy burden on the already scant resources apart from creating socio-cultural, political and economic tensions.
The religious imbalance of population in the North Eastern States has assumed serious proportions. In Arunachal Pradesh, the people of religions of Bharatiya origin were 99.21 per cent in 1951. It came down to 81.3 per cent in 2001 and to 67 per cent in 2011. In just one decade the Christian population of Arunachal Pradesh has grown by almost 13 percentage points. Similarly, in the population of Manipur, the share of religions of Bharatiya origin, which was more than 80 percent in 1951, has come down to 50 per cent in 2011. These examples and pointers of unnatural growth of Christian population in many districts of the nation indicate an organised and targeted religious conversion activity by some vested interests.
The Akhil Bharatiya Karyakari Mandal expresses deep concern over all these severe demographic imbalances and urges the Government to –
The ABKM calls upon the countrymen including all the Swayamsevaks to take cognisance of the causes of these population changes and consider it their national duty to create public awareness and take all lawful steps to save the country from this demographic imbalance.
(The resolution on Population was paased in Akhil Bharatiya Karyakari Mandal of RSS in 2015)
Imam was referring to the Siliguri Corridor, also known as the Chicken’s Neck, which is a stretch of land around the city of Siliguri in West Bengal. This 20–22 kilometres corridor connects the seven States of the North East to the rest of Bharat. It is a fact that North East’s demography has categorically changed in the last hundred years. First, it was the British who deliberately changed the demography of NE by converting local indigenous people to Christianity and destroying local rituals. Later, after Independence, Islamists joined Christian missionaries to alter the demography.
According to the report, the 2001 census counted 383 lakh people in the seven North Eastern States. Of these, 219 lakh were Hindus, 89 lakh Muslims, and 62 lakh Christians.
Between 1991 and 2001, the region’s population increased by 68 lakh people. Hindus 27 lakh, Muslims 20 lakh, and Christians 19 lakh. Thus, the decadal growth of Hindus was just about 14 per cent, compared to 30 per cent of Muslims and 45 per cent of Christians.
Demographic imbalance is a global problem and it is subverting democracy. The whole of Europe is facing the threat of demographic change. the UK, which has about 6.5 per cent Muslim population, has become the top destination for Muslim refugees after Germany. According to Pew Research, Germany was the destination for an estimated 670,000 Muslim refugees between mid-2010 and mid-2016. About 1,60,000 immigrants arrived in the UK between 2010 to 2016. Overall, an estimated 43 per cent of all migrants were Muslims. According to the 2021 census, the Muslim population has increased by 44 per cent over the last decade in the UK, which is up from 4.9 per cent to 6.5 per cent. Interestingly, 3.9 million Muslims are now living in London. And its impact was seen during the UK’s local body elections. Everywhere Muslims deserted Labour Party on the Gaza issue while remaining loyal to Sadiq Khan in London just because he is a Muslim. The Labour Party’s Sadiq Khan won a record third term as London’s Mayor on May 2.
Importantly, in 1951, the Muslim population in Assam was 17.6 per cent, which has increased to almost 37 per cent. In Bengal, the Muslim population during the same year was 20 per cent, which has increased to more than 30 per cent until 2021. In Bihar, the Muslim population in 2001 (before the State’s Partition) was 16.5 per cent, which has increased to 17.7 per cent, according to the 2022 caste survey.
In Kerala, Muslim population was 17.5 per cent in 1951, which has increased to 26.6 per cent. As a result, the State has witnessed unprecedented radicalisation in recent years. Notably, radical Islamic organisations are also demanding a separate State of Malabar by carving out areas from districts in North Kerala. Undoubtedly, this population imbalance is alarming, which was justified by a recent study published by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM). According to this study, the share of Bharat’s majority Hindu population declined by 7.81 per cent between 1950 and 2015, while that of the Muslim community surged by 43.15 per cent in the corresponding period, according to a study.
Resource Constraints & Possibility of Social Conflicts
The fact of the matter is that Bharat has limited resources, and every part of the country must have nearly equal growth and opportunity. Action against illegal immigrants coming from outside should be taken, as we have already witnessed protests in the northeast part of Bharat by the local people against infiltrators. Additionally, in recent years, we have seen a North vs. South debate based on the distribution of resources according to the population of the states and the migration of workers. Solution of all these problems is sustainable population growth.
Even before Independence, attempts were made to come up with recommendations and solutions to India’s burgeoning population problem. The efforts both pre- and post-Independence are mentioned below.
Radha Kamal Mukherjee Committee (1940): In 1940, the Indian National Congress appointed a Committee headed by a social scientist Radha Kamal Mukherjee to suggest solutions to arrest the population which has started increasing rapidly after 1921. The committee recommended self-control, generating awareness of cheap and safe birth control measures, discouraging polygamy, among others, as measures to bring down the rate of population growth.
Bhore Committee: The Health Survey and Development Committee under Sir Joseph Bhore recommended ‘deliberate limitation of family’ as a measure to control the population growth. This committee was set up in 1943 and submitted its report in 1946. Bharat became one of the first developing countries to come up with a state-sponsored family planning programme in the 1950s. A population policy committee was established in 1952. However, the policies framed in the early fifties were largely arbitrary and so no successful. In 1956, a Central Family Planning Board was set up and its focus was on sterilisation.
In 1976, GOI announced the first National Population Policy. Some of the measures to check the population growth as part of this policy include:
During the Emergency period (1975-77), coercive measures were used to reduce the population growth by the Indira Gandhi-led Government. There were mass forced sterlilisations. This, however, backfired as it discredited the entire family planning programme of the Government.
In 1977, after the Emergency ended, the new Government discarded the use of force in family planning and the family planning programme was renamed as the family welfare programme. The National Health Policy was adopted in 1983 which emphasised ‘securing the small family norm through voluntary efforts and moving towards the goal of population stabilisation’.
Later, a Committee on population was appointed in 1991 which submitted its report in 1993 in which it recommended the formulation of a National Population Policy to take a ‘a long-term holistic view of development, population growth, and environmental protection’ and to ‘suggest policies and guidelines [for] formulation of programmes’ and ‘a monitoring mechanism with short- medium- and long-term perspectives and goals’.
Accordingly, an expert group headed by Dr MS Swaminathan was set up to create the draft national population policy. And the National Population Policy finally came into force in 2000.
Given this, as we observe World Population Day on July 11, introduced by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in 1989, Bharat should formulate its own population policy keeping availability of resources in mind. This is important because the country is projected to have an estimated 1.67 billion people by 2050.
Also, instead of a reductionist approach on population explosion derived on the global parameters, we need a converted dialogue and debate on a comprehensive population policy that would be applicable to all.
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