On July 4, British citizens headed to the polls to vote in an early general election. The Labour Party is poised to win, replacing the Conservative Party that has ruled Britain since 2010. A change in government after 14 years would have implications for British foreign policy, including the UK’s relations with India.
For years, the story of India-UK ties had been underwhelming despite the long intertwined histories of the two nations. In addition, a prolonged Brexit process and political turmoil within Britain resulted in a lack of attention beyond these issues.
As the Tories in Britain head for a historic defeat in the elections, India is well-placed to advance the bilateral relationship under a new Labour government led by Keir Starmer. The Conservative Party may well deserve much of the criticism for its tumultuous 15-year tenure in office. But when it comes to India, there is no doubt that the Tories have presided over a positive reorientation of ties between London and Delhi. Shedding some of Britain’s colonial baggage, the party has unshackled British policy towards India from the Pakistan and Kashmir factors and framed the engagement in the broader Indo-Pacific framework.
They have also negotiated a roadmap for the transformation of bilateral relations across the board, from green transition to defence and from new technologies to maritime security. The Migration and Mobility Agreement helped the two sides grapple with the challenge of illegal immigration and ease the flow of Indian talent into the UK. Not all problems have been resolved. Delhi remains concerned about the impunity that anti-India activity in Britain seems to enjoy. There has been enduring resistance in Britain’s permanent establishment to a fresh relationship. In Delhi, too, the “anti-colonial” posturing on the left and right prevents the establishment from seizing the full range of possibilities with Britain.
Labour’s return to power might reignite some of India’s anxieties about bilateral ties due to the disastrous turn in India-UK relations in the late 1990s when Labour presided over a visit by Queen Elizabeth II to India in 1997. Meant to signal post-colonial reconciliation on the 50th anniversary of India’s Independence, the visit became a lesson in how not to organise major diplomatic events.
With Brexit finally out of the way, the India-UK partnership has begun to blossom, characterised by India’s key role in post-Brexit Britain’s foreign and trade policy and its “Global Britain” aspirations. Ties were upgraded to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2022 during former Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s tenure, accompanied by a 2030 road map to deepen bilateral relations.
Under Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour Party was widely perceived as antagonistic towards India with its repeated references to Kashmir to appeal to Britain’s Muslim community that comprised a significant vote bank for the party. However, the party has reinvented itself under Keir Starmer’s leadership. Mr Starmer has declared that Labour would seek a closer relationship with India and the British Indian community, which numbers around 1.8 million and contributes over 6 per cent to the British economy.
Could the return of Labour open up old wounds? Unlikely. Starmer has put down the anti-India fires lit in the Labour Party by Jeremy Corbyn. The Labour Manifesto’s references to Kashmir in the 2019 elections triggered a storm in Delhi and mobilised the Hindu community to support the Tories. But Starmer has sought to crush the radical ideologies. There is no longer a free run to anti-India groups. Starmer has signalled the intent to build on the foundations laid by the Tories.
At home, Labour is reaching out to the Hindu vote (as are the Tories). Starmer was at the Swaminarayan Temple in Kingsbury with the promise to protect the interests of British Hindus. But the new Labour can’t ignore other minorities, including the Pakistani diaspora which stands at 1.2 million (the Indian diaspora is at 1.5mn). The UK-based Khalistani groups will continue to lobby the new government to push an anti-India agenda.
For Delhi, there is no escaping the fact that India’s domestic politics and the fractures of the subcontinent will continue to resonate within the large South Asian diaspora. Like in most democracies, retail politics in the UK involves cultivating vote banks. Delhi, then, has a two-fold task. One is to maintain the pressure to curb anti-India activity in the UK. Delhi must also intensify its engagement with the “deep state” in Britain to lay out sensible protocols to manage the problems arising from the UK’s large and growing South Asian diaspora.
The other is to build on the positive potential that limits the salience of the negative factors. Shedding misperceptions about Britain is equally important. In the mid-1990s, Britain’s GDP was higher than China and India put together. Today, India certainly has a slightly bigger economy than Britain (nearly $4 trillion to $3.5 trillion). But India, with a per capita income of less than $3,000 (Britain is at $50,000), has much to gain from a deeper partnership with London.
Delhi should stop underestimating the relative importance of Britain for India. India’s exports to Britain today, at nearly $30 billion, are nearly six times the exports to Russia. Although far behind the US and China, Britain is among the front-ranking middle powers. Its financial clout, technological depth, and global reach make Britain a force multiplier for a rising India. As he nudges Labour towards political moderation, Starmer gives India the opportunity to strengthen ties with Britain.
David Lammy, expected to take over as the next foreign secretary, in a major speech last week laid out an ambitious vision for the relationship with India. Criticising the Tories for over-promising and under-delivering on the India relationship, Lammy says Labour is ready to step on the political accelerator to wrap up the free trade deal and push forward on the technological and defence fronts.
Change in the Labour’s rhetoric
The Labour worldview that Lammy is dubbing as “progressive realism”. The emphasis is on “realism”. If Robin Cook and Jeremy Corbyn elevated the rhetoric on a “values-based foreign policy” that was out of touch with reality, Starmer and Lammy are saying Britain must deal with the world as it is and not how it wishes it to be.
A trade, security, and tech agenda
Negotiations for the India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) hold bipartisan support and are slated to resume under a prospective Labour government. The FTA aims to double bilateral trade by 2030, currently almost £40 billion, benefitting India’s textiles, apparel, and gems sectors. Yet, sticking points remain, including a reduction in India’s high tariffs, which can reach as high as 100-150 per cent on automobiles and scotch whiskies, and Britain’s desire for greater access to the Indian market for its services sector, which constitutes 80 per cent of the British economy. On the other hand, India seeks greater mobility for its skilled professionals, a politically contentious issue for the Tories who advocated for Brexit on an anti-immigration platform. A Labour government may be better placed to make concessions on mobility-related issues.
The evolving strategic landscape of the Indo-Pacific has resulted in a British pivot towards the Indian Ocean. This is documented in the UK’s Integrated Review Refresh (IR Refresh 2023) strategy that reinforces the UK’s “Indo-Pacific tilt”, and emphasises cooperation with “like-minded” partners such as India to support a rules-based order. This has led to increasing India-UK strategic engagement in the Indo-Pacific, with both countries ramping up maritime presence through joint military exercises, enhanced naval interoperability, and collaboration in maritime domain awareness, counterterrorism, and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) activities. Besides deploying assets such as the UK Carrier Group in the region, Britain has also joined the Indian Navy’s Information Fusion Centre in Gurugram.
Building on from Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s first foreign policy speech where he declared the “golden era” of UK-China ties as over, IR Refresh’s references to China as “an epoch-defining and systemic challenge” has somewhat mitigated India-UK differences, even though the strategy falls short of labelling China a threat.
Yet, despite plans to become the most engaged European power in the Indo-Pacific and increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent of gross domestic product by 2030, questions about British capacity and resources loom large. There is also uncertainty about whether Labour would continue the Indo-Pacific tilt initiated by the Tories. Moreover, reduced American engagement in Europe may require Britain to focus on its role as a Euro-Atlantic security provider, making a collective approach with partners like India all the more crucial for Indo-Pacific stability.
On Defence
In 2023, ties between the two countries were also upgraded to a 2+2 mechanism. However, only 3 per cent of India’s defence acquisitions in the past decade came from the UK, highlighting the scope to do more, particularly in bolstering India’s defence manufacturing sector through sharing advanced technology, but also easing export licensing rules to enable India to reduce its dependency on Russian hardware.
On Climate Change
On climate action, the two countries are collaborating to strengthen research and design partnerships aimed at decarbonisation. Additionally, fintech, telecom, startups and higher education are important areas. On cybersecurity, the two nations cooperate through an Enhanced Cyber Partnership. Besides the US, Britain is the only country with whom India holds an annual Cyber Dialogue.
Rise of a new era
Despite Britain’s strong support for Ukraine, India’s ties with Russia have not produced significant friction in India-UK relations. Historical irritants such as Pakistan and Khalistan issues that once clouded bilateral ties are gradually being marginalised, paving the way for smoother cooperation.
Prospects for India-UK relations under a revamped Labour party appear promising as Mr Satrmer has made a serious effort in addressing Indian concerns. A third mandate for the Modi government, which has pursued a fresh approach to trade deals with Australia, the UAE and the European Free Trade Association bloc, and the likelihood of greater political stability in the UK post-elections, provide a solid foundation to advance the FTA towards the finish line, especially in the global context of protectionist American and Chinese streaks.
India’s ties with the UK are at an interesting crossroads. Regardless of the direction taken, relations seem poised to continue on an upward trajectory. The UK as a P5, G7 and Five Eyes member continues to enjoy outsized global influence, while India is the world’s fastest-growing economy and most populous country. As both nations attempt to carve out roles for themselves in a volatile emerging order, now is the moment to harness synergies and convergences in favour of the bigger picture.
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