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India has firmly declined China’s repeated requests to reinstate direct passenger flights, which have been suspended for four years. This decision comes despite Beijing’s persistent efforts to persuade New Delhi to resume these flights. An official statement, supported by reports from Reuters, confirms that India remains unwavering in its stance, primarily due to the unresolved border dispute that continues to strain relations between the two populous nations.
This decision is rooted in the significant border clash of 2020, which marked the most severe military confrontation in decades along the disputed Himalayan border. This incident resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and at least four Chinese soldiers, although some reports suggest China may have understated its casualties. Since then, both countries have maintained a substantial military presence along the border, contributing to ongoing tensions. This ongoing tension has been a critical factor in India’s decision to keep the suspension of direct flights in place. It showcases the importance of resolving the border issues before normalising other aspects of the relationship.
Also, in response to this border clash of 2020, India implemented a series of measures to reduce the Chinese influence. These measures included restrictions on Chinese investments, bans on several Chinese mobile applications deemed to pose security risks as well as the suspension of direct passenger flights between the two countries. While cargo flights have continued operations, the resumption of passenger flights remains suspended, despite the potential economic advantages for both nations.
The halt in direct passenger flights has significant implications, especially for China, which has faced challenges in the recovery of its international travel sector following the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike India’s robust aviation industry, which has shown notable growth, China’s overseas travel recovery has been slower. The reinstatement of direct flights between the two countries could potentially stimulate economic activity, facilitate easier travel for business and tourism, and enhance bilateral ties.
Before the pandemic, direct flights between India-China peaked in December 2019, with 539 scheduled flights operated by airlines such as IndiGo, Air India, China Southern, China Eastern, Air China, and Shandong Airlines. Data from aviation analytics firm Cirium shows that Chinese carriers operated 371 of these flights, more than double the 168 flown by Indian airlines. But, flights were halted as the pandemic increased, and except for a few COVID-19 repatriation flights, direct routes are not resumed. This is despite India lifting COVID-19 restrictions on international air routes a year later and China lifting all travel measures in early 2023.
Currently, travellers between India-China have to change planes in hubs like Hong Kong, Dubai, or Singapore which significantly extend travel times from less than six hours to over ten hours. This detour has resulted in a diversion of business, including lucrative transit traffic to the United States, to carriers such as Emirates, Singapore Airlines, and Cathay Pacific. Additionally, the recovery of Chinese overseas travel is hindered by rising costs and visa challenges, despite Chinese travelers being among the world’s top spenders on international tourism and airlines.
In a recent interview in Dubai, IndiGo’s CEO, Pieter Elbers, stated that the airline would evaluate the market when the time is right, depending on a mutual understanding between the Indian and Chinese governments. Currently, IndiGo operates a weekly service on the Delhi-Hong Kong route, which provides connections to mainland China. Similarly, Air India CEO Campbell Wilson acknowledged the significant market potential for direct flights between India-China. However, he noted that several factors influencing this decision remain beyond the airlines’ control, highlighting the complexity of resuming direct air links between the two nations.
Over the past year, Chinese authorities and airlines have persistently urged India’s civil aviation authorities to reconsider the suspension and restore direct air links. Sources familiar with the matter revealed to Reuters that China views the resumption of flights as crucial. China’s Foreign Ministry has publicly expressed optimism about cooperation with India towards the early resumption of direct flights, emphasizing the mutual benefits that such connectivity could bring. However, India’s decision to maintain the suspension underscores its priority on ensuring stability and peace along the border as a prerequisite for broader engagement with China.
A senior Indian official emphasised that achieving peace and tranquility along the border is a fundamental prerequisite for advancing any other facets of the bilateral relationship between India-China. Pieter Elbers, CEO of IndiGo, India’s largest airline, confirmed that discussions with Indian authorities are ongoing, while Chinese carriers are engaging with their government about resuming direct routes. Requests for comments from India’s external affairs and civil aviation ministries have not been answered.
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