Kerala Lok Sabha election results indicate surge of BJP in left’s bastion

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has won an absolute majority in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections for the third consecutive time, overcoming the possible anti-incumbency sentiment in a decade and threats from the 38 Opposition parties, united in opposition to Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The uniqueness of BJP’s victory in 2014 and 2019 was that Indian politics, which had known only coalition Governments after 1984, was under one-party rule. Apart from this peculiarity, NDA’s victory this time round can be termed historic as Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the first Prime Minister after Jawaharlal Nehru to hold office for the third consecutive term. Today, BJP has achieved what even Indira Gandhi, hailed by the Congress as India’s most powerful Prime Minister, could not. However, Congress, Communists and the media are now trying to portray this as a minor achievement.

Emerging Triumphant

Even though NDA seats have fallen at the national level, the most heartening victory came from Kerala, which has 20 Lok Sabha seats. Suresh Gopi, BJP candidate, opened the account in Lok Sabha, overcoming the anti-BJP propaganda led by Communists and Congress in Kerala for years. The fact that Suresh Gopi received more than four lakh votes on the lotus symbol and won by a margin of 74,000 votes, further sweetened the victory. Bharatiya Janata Party won the Thrissur seat with 37.8 per cent of votes, with VS Sunilkumar of Communist Party of India (CPI) coming in second with 31 per cent and K Muraleedharan of Congress (INC) receiving only 30.1 per cent votes. Therefore, BJP’s victory can be considered credible. Previously, in 2004, Kerala Congress (PC Thomas), which was part of the NDA, won in Kerala.

In Kerala, NDA’s vote share increased dramatically. BJP not only triumphed in Thrissur but also placed second in Thiruvananthapuram. Union Minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar, who fought against Shashi Tharoor, lost by only 16,077 votes. Moreover, the NDA boosted their vote share in Kerala from 15.56 per cent in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections to 19.24 per cent in 2024. At the same time, Congress front’s vote share, which was 47.34 per cent and 19 seats in 2019, has dropped to 45.10 per cent and 18 seats this time. Besides, Communist front’s vote share, which was 35.15 per cent and one seat in 2019, has dropped to 31.94 per cent and one seat. Another notable fact is that BJP came first in 11 Assembly constituencies held by Communist  parties and second in eight Assembly constituencies held by both fronts.

This time, NDA received over four lakh votes in one constituency and more than three lakh votes in two others. Furthermore, NDA candidates received more than 2 lakh votes in four constituencies, over 1.5 lakh votes in four constituencies, and more than one lakh votes in seven constituencies. However, in two constituencies, Malappuram and Idukki, NDA did not receive more than one lakh votes.

Crucial Lost for Commies

However, Communist parties lost votes even in its stronghold areas namely Kannur, Vadakara and Alappuzha where the BJP could make a strong presence, indicating a shift in Kerala’s political dynamics. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, CPI (M), which won one seat and 26 per cent of the votes, only won one seat with a vote share of 25.82 per cent this time. What distinguishes this election from 2019 is that CPI (M) lost its Hindu cadre votes slightly and replaced it with Muslim votes. Furthermore, CPI(M) has won a total of four all-India seats, making it difficult for the party to maintain its status as a national party and its symbol. On the other side, Congress garnered 37.5 per cent of the vote in 2019 and now decreased to 35.06 per cent. Congress, which has neither an organisational structure nor a clear policy, gets a large number of votes and seats in Kerala according to the circumstances. In 2019, for example, it bagged 19 seats due to the agitation against the CPI (M) on the Sabarimala issue. This time, a similar reason is the anti-incumbency sentiment against the CPI (M) led State Government in the context of failure in pension distribution and corruption etc. Congress, in this context, bagged the votes as the next largest party in the State. However, in 2024, BJP increased its vote share from 13 per cent in 2019 to 16.68 per cent and won 1 seat. This gives the party the energy to further expand its roots.

It cannot be ruled out that the growth of BJP will lead to an alliance between Congress and Communists in Kerala in the future. The administration of both fronts since 1956 has brought Kerala to the present situation, which has led to great discontent among the people. Kerala has become a sinking ship with large unemployment, high debt, nepotism, corruption etc. The economic policies of the two fronts are the same. Even if Congress comes to power, it will only take policy decisions from Communist ecosystem. Only the BJP can bring a change to this, so the demand for the saffron party is increasing among the people of Kerala, especially youth.