The 2024 General Election results have delivered a mixed bag for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its coalition, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Northeast. While the BJP maintained its dominance in some parts of the Northeast, significant challenges arose from a polarised voting pattern, particularly among Christian and Muslim voters who shifted towards the Congress party.
The Manipur Impact
Manipur has been a focal point of political and social unrest, undoubtedly influencing the election outcomes. The state, already reeling from a year-long period of violence, witnessed a notable shift in voter sentiment. Christian and church leaders strongly pitted against the BJP in Christian-majority states such as Nagaland, Mizoram, Meghalaya, and the Kuki and Naga-dominated hill districts of Manipur.
In Manipur, the BJP and NDA lost both parliamentary seats. The majority of the Hindu meitei community, which had previously backed the BJP in state and national elections, shifted their allegiance to Congress at this time. The BJP lost the meitei-dominated inner Manipur seat to a Congress candidate. Similarly, a Congress rival defeated the NDA’s Naga People’s Front (NPF) candidate in the tribal-dominated outer Manipur. Political analysts suggest that prolonged violence has deeply impacted voting patterns not only in Manipur but across .
Assam Chief Minister and North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) convenor Himanta Biswa Sarma commented on the losses, stating, “Leaders of a particular religion openly worked against the BJP and NDA in Nagaland, Manipur, and Meghalaya, and that religion has tremendous followers in those states. That made the difference.” In Meghalaya, the NDA alliance and the ruling National People’s Party (NPP) led by CM Conrad Sangma lost both the Tura and Shillong constituencies. CM Sangma’s sister, MP Agatha Sangma, lost the Tura seat to a Congress candidate, a long-standing stronghold of the Sangma family. In Shillong, the NPP candidate was defeated by a new regional party, the Voice of the People Party (VPP). Here, too, Christian voters played a decisive role in voting against the NDA. In Nagaland, the NDA alliance’s Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) candidate lost the lone seat to a Congress candidate. The opposition from church leaders significantly contributed to this defeat. Despite being nearly wiped out in recent assembly elections, the Congress party emerged victorious in the 2024 parliamentary elections with the backing of Christian leaders. In Mizoram, the ruling Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) candidate won, reflecting the continued support for regional parties among Christian voters, unlike in Manipur, Meghalaya, and Nagaland, where the polarisation favoured Congress. Despite setbacks in other north-eastern states, the BJP performed exceptionally well in Arunachal Pradesh and Tripura. In the Arunachal Pradesh assembly elections, the BJP won 46 out of 60 seats, while the Congress was completely ousted. The BJP also retained both parliamentary seats, with senior leader Kiren Rijiju winning in Arunachal West and MP Tapir Gao in Arunachal East, defeating their Congress rivals.
In Tripura, former Chief Minister Biplab Kumar Dev won the West Tripura constituency with a significant margin, and BJP candidate Kriti Devi Debbarman secured a victory in East Tripura. These results underscore the BJP’s continued dominance in these states. In Sikkim, the ruling Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM) candidate won the lone parliamentary seat, marking a historic win in the assembly elections and ensuring a second consecutive term for the SKM, an NDA ally.
NDA’s success in Assam
In Assam, BJP repeated its past performance under CM Himanta Biswa Sarma’s leadership, winning nine out of eleven contested seats. The NDA allies, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL), secured one seat each. The NDA won 11 out of 14 seats in Assam. The NDA also increased its overall vote share to nearly 46 per cent, a significant rise from previous elections. However, the Congress managed to win three seats, with deputy leader in parliament Gaurav Gogoi defeating BJP MP Tapan Gogoi in Jorhat. Congress MP Pradyut Bordoloi won the Nagaon seat for a second term, and Congress candidate Rockybul Hussain surprisingly defeated Dhubri MP and AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal. Both constituencies are minority-dominated, and the Congress party got overwhelming support from Muslim voters. CM Sarma expressed concerns about the demographic changes in Assam, stating, “The victory for Congress leader Rakibul Hussian with a margin of 10 lakh votes has shown us the possible threat of indigenous communities of state highlighting the demographic changes in the middle and lower Assam and has questioned our existence in the future.” He also noted the ‘alarming’ communal turnout from the Muslim community.
Overall, the BJP won 13 out of 15 seats contested in the Northeast, while the NDA secured 16 seats. The Congress won seven seats, and two regional parties, the ZPM and VPP, each won one seat in Mizoram and Meghalaya, respectively. The results reflect the region’s complex and evolving political dynamics, influenced by religious and community sentiments. The political landscape in the Northeast is marked by a deepening polarisation of votes along religious lines. This election has highlighted the growing influence of Christian and Muslim communities in shaping electoral outcomes. The shift in voter sentiment towards the Congress in key states like Manipur, Meghalaya, and Nagaland underscores the significant role that religious leaders and community dynamics play in the region.
The Northeast will remain a critical region for all major parties as the political landscape evolves. The lessons learned from the 2024 election will shape the strategies and approaches of the BJP, Congress, and regional parties in the years to come. The ability to navigate the complex interplay of religious, ethnic, and cultural factors will be key to achieving lasting political success in this diverse and dynamic region.
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