On June 7, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced that it would keep the key lending rate unchanged at 6.5 percent, a move that was widely anticipated by economists and bankers. This decision shows the RBI’s commitment to its primary objective of combating inflation. Governor Shaktikanta Das and his monetary policy committee (MPC) colleagues have made it clear that their focus will remain firmly on reducing inflation until it reaches the medium-term target of four percent. Current projections suggest that achieving this target will take some time, which supports the RBI’s decision to keep the current rate unchanged until consistent progress is achieved.
After Governor Das’ announcement, equity benchmarks such as the Sensex and the Nifty experienced a rise, reflecting investor approval of the central bank’s consistent emphasis on controlling inflation. At the same time, bond yields and the rupee showed little change, suggesting that the market has confidence in the RBI’s approach and sees it as a stabilizing influence on the economy.
For Governor Das and his MPC colleagues, the situation with inflation has remained relatively consistent since the last policy review in April. Although there has been some easing, with inflation rates staying below 5 percent, it still exceeds the central bank’s target. Specifically, in April, India’s retail inflation was recorded at 4.83 percent, which is only a slight decrease from the 10-month low of 4.85 percent observed in March. Despite this modest reduction, the current inflation rate is still higher than the desired level set by the RBI.
The central bank has frequently highlighted that once inflation is brought within the target range of 2-6 percent, the subsequent aim is to stabilize it at a consistent 4 percent over the long term. Achieving this requires maintaining low prices over several quarters. The RBI’s projections indicate that inflation will remain above 4 percent throughout this fiscal year, with a minor decline to 3.8 percent expected in the second quarter. Assuming normal monsoon conditions, the RBI has maintained its inflation forecast for FY 2025 at 4.5 percent.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected that Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation will be 4.9 percent in the first quarter, 3.8 percent in the second quarter, 4.6 percent in the third quarter, and 4.5 percent in the fourth quarter. Governor Shaktikanta Das emphasised the importance of closely monitoring food prices due to their unpredictable nature, reaffirming the RBI’s objective of achieving a sustained inflation rate of 4 percent.
In addition to these projections, the RBI has increased the full-year growth target from 7 percent to 7.2 percent, signalling strong economic performance. This improved growth outlook provides the central bank with the flexibility to prioritize inflation control without the immediate necessity to cut interest rates to stimulate growth.
The central bank’s steadfast commitment lies in refraining from hastily reversing interest rates until tangible indications emerge of inflation easing to the targeted 4 percent. This cautious strategy is designed to safeguard the progress achieved in controlling inflation, preventing any potential setbacks.
Governor Shaktikanta Das’s acknowledgment of the strides made in combating inflation, alongside the acknowledgment of persistent challenges, underscores the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) unwavering dedication to maintaining economic stability. The central bank’s resolute commitment to controlling inflation is deserving of praise, recognizing its pivotal role in fostering a robust economy.
When prices of things go up a lot, and more people can’t find jobs, it becomes harder for regular folks to buy what they need. This is a big problem because it means even when the economy grows, many people don’t benefit. India, being a big economy in Asia, needs to solve this problem to make sure everyone is doing well. That’s why the RBI keeps focusing on bringing prices under control it is a really important part of their plans to keep the economy strong and help people.
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