Death of Ebrahim Raisi: What it means for Iran and West Asia?

The mysterious circumstances surrounding the abrupt departure of Iran’s President, Dr. Syed Ebrahim Raisi, along with his Foreign Minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, and six other officials, have sent shockwaves through both domestic and international communities. The event, which occurred on May19, involved a tragic crash of an American-made helicopter, a B212, over the East Azerbaijan province in the north-west of Iran. This incident unfolded shortly after President Raisi had led a delegation to inaugurate the Qiz Qalasi hydroelectric dam, situated on the border with neighbouring Azerbaijan, marking a potential step towards easing bilateral tensions with Baku.

Initial reports attributed the crash to a combination of human error and technical malfunction, exacerbated by adverse weather conditions. The Iranian government swiftly announced the launch of a high-level investigation team tasked with thoroughly examining the incident and uncovering the circumstances that led to the tragic crash. One significant factor complicating maintenance and safety of American military equipment in Iran has been the scarcity of spare parts, a consequence of enduring sanctions dating back to the Iranian revolution and the subsequent overthrow of the Shah of Iran in 1979. While this logistical challenge may have played a contributing role, the true cause of the crash remains shrouded in ambiguity pending the findings of the investigative team.

Possibility of foul play
The timing of the incident has sparked widespread speculation and raised unsettling questions about the possibility of foul play. Many observers have questioned whether the tragic crash was indeed a mere coincidence or, perhaps, a deliberate act aimed at eliminating President Raisi and sending a clear message to Tehran. Such conjecture has given rise to various conspiracy theories, underscoring the deep-seated suspicions that permeate Iran’s political landscape. Until the investigation team conclusively dispels these doubts and elucidates the truth behind this enigmatic event, the circumstances surrounding President Raisi’s untimely demise will continue to haunt both domestic and international discourse.

The untimely passing of President Dr. Syed Ebrahim Raisi has not only left a void in Iran’s political landscape but has also cast uncertainty over the country’s future leadership, particularly given his widely perceived status as the successor to the aging Supreme Leader, who, at 85 years old, faces the inevitability of succession in the near future. President Raisi ascended to power at a critical juncture in Iran’s history, amidst a backdrop of severe economic sanctions imposed by the United States, internal unrest, and the escalating Israeli offensive in Gaza, Israeli attacks on Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria that killed Iranian officals, which triggered retaliatory strikes from Iran, further escalating tensions in the region and exacerbating the longstanding conflict with the United States.

Despite these formidable challenges, President Raisi’s tenure was marked by few achievements, particularly in the realm of economic revitalization. Of course, also few controversial steps regarding women. His administration’s efforts to navigate the economic hardships imposed by American sanctions and modernise Iran’s oil extraction infrastructure yielded tangible results, with oil production witnessing a significant increase of 60 per cent to reach 3.1 million barrels per day by the end of 2023, compared to 2.02 million barrels per day in 2021. This achievement, though falling short of pre-sanction levels, underscored President Raisi’s resilience and determination in steering Iran’s economy towards stability amidst turbulent times. Furthermore, his administration’s focus on diversifying Iran’s non-oil exports contributed to a remarkable surge in export revenues, bolstering the country’s economic resilience.

In the wake of President Raisi’s tragic demise, Iran finds itself at a crossroads, grappling with both the loss of a powerful leader and the imperative of ensuring continuity and stability in governance. In accordance with constitutional protocols, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei swiftly endorsed the appointment of Vice President Mohammad Mukhber as President Raisi’s successor, alongside the elevation of Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani, underscoring a commitment to preserving institutional continuity. The upcoming early election scheduled for June 28, 2024, will serve as a crucial juncture in Iran’s political trajectory, offering an opportunity for the Iranian people to chart a course forward amidst unprecedented challenges and uncertainties.

Mokhber as a new leader
Born on September 1, 1955, in Dezful, Iran’s southwestern Khuzestan province, Mohammad Mokhber hails from a clerical family and has held numerous significant positions prior to assuming the top post. The transition of power to Mokhber is unlikely to alter the government’s policies and is anticipated to remain unchanged until the announcement of the successor to the Supreme Leader, especially if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei designates his son, Mojtaba, a 55-year-old cleric, as his successor. Such a move could potentially spark infighting among the religious establishment and unrest among the populace, who are already grappling with severe economic conditions. To avert such a scenario, the Supreme Leader may establish a temporary “Leadership Council” of clerics until a suitable candidate is identified to safeguard the Iranian Islamic Republic.

In the aftermath of the late President’s tenure, global attention will be focused on Iran’s upcoming election to discern any noteworthy changes in its policies. The ongoing turmoil in West Asia and Israel’s continued offensive against Hamas are expected to persist until Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu achieves his objectives, including the eradication of Hamas.

The United States’ adoption of Netanyahu’s anti-Iran policy is likely to compel Iran to reassess its nuclear stance to counter threats from both Tel Aviv and Washington. Should the new administration refrain from returning to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action regarding Iran’s peaceful nuclear programme, Tehran may opt to expand its nuclear energy sector, especially in the event of potential attacks on its nuclear facilities by the Israeli government under Prime Minister Netanyahu. Speculations abound regarding Israel’s involvement in the death of the president, though Israel promptly denied any such allegations.

India-Iran relations
India mourned the passing of President Raisi, standing in solidarity with Iran during this time of loss. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Foreign Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar conveyed their condolences and shared India’s heartfelt sympathies with the Iranian people. India’s gesture of declaring a day of mourning underscored the depth of the bilateral relationship between the two nations.

The historical ties between India and Iran have been robust, stretching back through the annals of time until the partition of the subcontinent and creation of Pakistan. India has long recognised the geopolitical significance of Iran and has worked diligently to establish a strong foundation for mutual cooperation, particularly in the realms of food and oil security. During President Raisi’s tenure, trade relations between India and Iran experienced a notable upswing, with trade volumes surging by 27 per cent to reach a substantial $2.33 billion USD.
Despite external pressures, such as threats of sanctions from the United States, India remains committed to its strategic partnership with Iran. The Chabahar accord, inked on May 13 this year, stands as a testament to this enduring commitment. India’s continued involvement in the port project, despite potential repercussions, underscores its determination to bolster connectivity and access to Central Asia, Russia, and Eurasia through initiatives like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

The passing of President Raisi is not expected to disrupt the steady trajectory of bilateral relations between India and Iran. However, India remains vigilant regarding the potential escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran, recognising the far-reaching implications such a conflict could have on global stability and the oil trade. As such, India remains steadfast in its commitment to fostering peace and stability in the region, while simultaneously safeguarding its strategic interests and economic well-being.