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Demographic change and demographic aggression have been matters of concern for Bharat as well as the West for quite some time now. While there’s a lot of cacophony of political rhetoric in the public domain, and peddling of aggressor-victim narratives tailored to instigate target sections of society, there’s not much reliance on factual analysis in such discussions. It’s crucial to seriously study demographic trends so as to understand the socio-cultural undercurrents within a society and anticipate the shifts it may undergo in the future. In this backdrop, the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister has come out with a working paper titled “Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015)”. The working paper, authored by Shamika Ravi, Abraham Jose, and Apurv Kumar Mishra, is a solid analysis of the changes in demographic trends of religious groups of various countries across the globe. The centrality of the report to grasping political contours of democracies may be gauged from the following explanation provided within the report:
“In democracies, the change in political outcomes triggered by demographic changes is particularly acute on two accounts. Firstly, they redraw the contours of elections because demographic changes affect the provisioning of public goods. Politics, especially in a democracy, is not an exogenous variable but quite often an attempt to leverage these changes by projecting a solution to the insecurities generated by changing demographics or vouching to become a representative of the new demography.”
In essence, with changing demography, politics becomes a medium to exploit the insecurities of withering majorities and capitalise on the political aspirations of strengthening minorities.
The paper brings out a “detailed cross-country descriptive analysis of the status of minorities around the world measured in terms of their changing share in a country’s population over 65 years between 1950 and 2015”, covering 167 countries in their study. The paper sheds light on some striking conclusions, including that there has been a decrease of approximately 22 percent in the share of majority religious denominations across countries globally, inferring that “on an average the world has become more heterogeneous”. The paper also highlights that certain regions, such as Africa, have witnessed drastic changes in the constitution of their religious demography.
Out of the 40 countries which have gone through the most drastic shifts, more than half of them are on the African continent. As per the RCS-Dem dataset relied upon for analysis, back in 1950, animism was recognised as the majority religious denomination in 24 (mostly African) countries. (Not so) Surprisingly, by 2015, it was “no longer a majority” in any of those countries, with various sects of Christianity and Islam taking over as the majority denomination in all of them. While on the one hand, 77 out of 94 Christian majority countries faced a decrease in their majority share, on the other hand 25 of 38 Muslim majority countries saw an increase in the population of their majority religious groups. The far reaching inferences and implications of the analysis may be understood once we acknowledge that these changes have occurred within a span of just three generations, as per the period under study.
The paper bases its analysis on the “share of the minority population as a cumulative outcome measure of their well-being”. It describes its working hypothesis as such: “Our hypothesis is that the change in the proportion of the minority population as a share of total population is a good proxy for the status of minorities in a country over time. A society which provides a congenial environment for the flourishing of minorities is more likely to witness an increase or stabilisation in their numbers over a period of three generations.”
As far as the Indian subcontinent is concerned, Hindus come across as the obvious losers in the region. Notwithstanding whether they’re in majority or minority, they have maintained a consistency across the region in terms of witnessing a steep decrease in their population in all the countries of the region. To begin with Bharat, the share of the majority Hindu population has come down from 84.68 percent to 78.06 percent, registering a decrease of 7.82 percent from 1950 to 2015. In contrast, the minority population of Muslims shot up from 9.84 percent to 14.09 percent, marking a dramatic 43.15 percent increase in their population within three generations. Besides, the dwindling of Jain and Parsi populations should also be a matter of grave concern for our plural Bharatiya society.
Further, the report reveals a drop in the majority Hindu population in Nepal as well, while noting a significant increase in Muslim and Christian populations. The constant existential threat to Hindus in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan is a well-established but inadequately addressed problem, and the ongoing nature of the crisis is public knowledge, which may be taken up as a matter for action (beyond words) in the future. The data covered in the paper shows that even in Bhutan and Sri Lanka, the minority Hindu populations have declined sharply, registering a decrease of 50 percent and 28 percent in both the Buddhist majority countries respectively. The study suggests that India has experienced the ‘biggest decline’ in the majority religious denomination population, only next to Myanmar in the region.
“Contrary to the noise in several quarters, careful analysis of the data shows that minorities are not just protected but indeed thriving in India. This is particularly remarkable given the wider context within the South Asian neighbourhood, where the share of the majority religious denomination has increased and minority populations have shrunk alarmingly across countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Afghanistan.
India’s performance suggests that there is a conducive environment to foster diversity in the society. It is not possible to promote better life outcomes for the disadvantaged sections of society without providing a nurturing environment and societal support through a bottom-up approach. By way of illustration, India is one of the few countries which has a legal definition of minorities and provides constitutionally protected rights for them. The outcome of these progressive and inclusive institutions are reflected in the growing number of minority populations within India.
…Given its plural, liberal and democratic nature, India has continued its civilizational tradition of harboring persecuted populations from several countries over the last six decades.”
On the basis of its hypothesis and findings, the working paper concludes its findings with a reassertion of the diverse nature of Bharatiya society, and argues that our nation has indeed been a supportive environment for the flourishing of religious minorities. This implies that the majority religious denomination of Hindus has also created an ecosystem of values which contribute towards the growth of religious minorities. The paper defuses the propaganda being pushed in Western media about brute majoritarianism and persecution of religious minorities in our nation, ongoing for decades now. Being published by the EAC-PM, since the timeline of dataset examined is from 1950-2015, the paper steers itself clear of any accusations of being a propaganda material brought out by the current government to counter the narratives prevalent in international media of it oppressing the religious minorities and pushing a religious majoritarian agenda. The paper has maneuvered itself away from being labeled as a work inspired by the present government’s political agendas, and its fact intensive nature, coupled with the period chosen for study in tune with the availability of data, makes it handy for explaining the diverse, democratic nature of an independent Bharat.
The findings of the EAC-PM working paper highlight some crucial demographic changes worth pondering over. First, the increase in heterogeneity in terms of religious composition of countries across the globe raises questions about the future of concepts such as nationalism, nation-state, and patriotism. Given that heterogeneity implies a dilution of the unique identities of nations, substantially influenced by their religious compositions, one may realize a need to rework the conceptualization of our ideas about nation and nationalism, to better suit, explain and be accepted in a more diverse world. It poses a challenge to the conventional understanding of nationalism, and one needs to respond to the question of accommodating identities which do not correspond to the predefined ideas of various nation-states. Second, the demographic trends of Africa and the diminishing prospects of animism for survival, clearly indicate the presence of a serious challenge to the very existence of traditional societies and civilizations.
Moreover, a decrease in religious majorities also shows a dilution of civilizational identities, which again raises serious questions about the future of ancient civilizations and their survival in a heterogeneous world. The paper makes one realize the impact that religious conversions and proselytization can create, so as to essentially, entirely transform or subvert national identities within a period of three generations. Another important aspect for the philosophers to consider is the value attributed to the idea of religious diversity, such that it is perceived as a positive attribute of a society by default and should be promoted. Also, whether religious diversity ought to be cherished as a value and be promoted just for the sake of it, is a question which is central to the problem of changes in religious demography, to the extent that countries may be turned heterogeneous artificially through relaxed immigration policies and other policy interventions.
The full-blown implications of the paper can be grasped once the analysis is put in the right perspective, and the demographic changes are read both in terms of percentage as well as absolute numbers. While the paper is a testimony to the well-woven fabric of Bharat’s religious diversity and the supportive atmosphere it has for the prosperity of its religious minorities, it shouldn’t be instrumentalized as a medium to test the tensile strength of this fabric of a plural society.
Although the conclusions of the paper may not be appropriate to raise false alarms, it has to be acknowledged that the Indian subcontinent, which serves as the main anchor of Hindus, has witnessed a rapid decline in their populations. The old adage of “demography is destiny” plays itself out when strengthening minorities act as consolidated political units and resort to “subverting democracy with the use of demography” by advocating herd mentality, as noted in a recent editorial of this weekly. In his column for a leading national daily, senior RSS leader Dr. Ram Madhav referred to the discussions doing rounds about the immediacy of ‘Great Replacement Theory’ as an emerging reality in Europe. Bharat surely presents a different context, but ideas such as ‘Vote Jihad’ gaining traction in the public discourse, and being peddled by mainstream political parties to reap political benefits, should inevitably ring alarm bells amongst the majority religious population, which has nurtured social harmony, peace and cultural vibrancy as its core civilizational values.
In one of his interviews, Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently appealed to the Muslim voters to introspect into the trends within their community to vote en bloc, with a view to decisively shape election results in favor or against particular candidates or parties. Utilizing demographic advantages to influence political calculations for pushing religio-political agendas and increasing religious polarization, has been openly called out by the Prime Minister for perhaps the first time. It is high time for the Bharatiya society to contemplate about the significant shifts in religious composition it has been undergoing, and accordingly work towards required policy and political interventions to be able to maintain its unique civilizational identity and cultural/traditional practices. Given the talks of ‘Vote Jihad’ and demographic aggression being peddled by radical Muslim circles, noted social activist Hamid Dalwai had stated in his book ‘Muslim Politics in India’:
“It is high time now that younger Muslims became critically introspective and learned the nature of their own mistakes. It is a tragic fact that there does not yet a class of critically introspective young Muslims of India. A society which puts the blame on the Hindus for its own communalism can hardly be called introspective… The truth of the matter is that the Muslim intelligentsia has not yet given up its postulate of a parallel society. It has still not learned to separate religion from politics. Their idea of religious freedom is merely that the structure of the Muslim society in India should remain unaltered.”
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