BJP’s Juggernaut Roll on: Sailing towards a sweeping 2024 victory on the waves of transformative governance

Published by
Dr Prashant Barthwal & Divyansh Kala

Since 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government have enacted various policies to strengthen governance within India while also elevating the country’s influence and status on the global stage. Through economic reforms, security initiatives, infrastructure development, and assertive diplomacy, the Modi administration has sought to address long-standing challenges and capitalise on India’s immense potential as an emerging power.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, increasing their seat count to 303 out of 543 constituencies. This marked another single-party majority after their landslide win in 2014. As Modi enters the final year of his second term, several factors could enable the BJP to outperform their impressive 2019 showing in the next general elections due by May 2024.

Welfare Schemes and Economic Growth

During its tenure, the Modi Government has prioritised public welfare schemes and effective governance. Major initiatives like the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana for affordable housing through which in urban areas 77.1 lakh houses and in rural areas, 2.5 crore houses have been constructed, Ayushman Bharat, which is the world’s largest insurance scheme under which 32.90 crore cards were issued, and over 5.7 crore people are treated free of cost. The PM-KISAN income support scheme provides Rs 6000 per year in 3 equal instalments to farmers, and under it, more than 11.8 crore farmers have benefited till now and have aimed to provide a social safety net.

The government has also ramped up the delivery of basic amenities like cooking gas, electricity, toilets, and bank accounts through programs like Ujjwala, under which 17.02 crore households are now equipped with LPG gas since 2014,  Saubhagya yojna, aimed to provide electricity connections to rural and urban households and till now under it 2.86 crores and by 2022 all villages are now electrified, Swachh Bharat Mission provided 67.13 lakh individual toilets and 6.52 lakh community and public toilets constructed in urban areas, and more than 4.61 lakh villages were declared Open Defecation Free and Jan Dhan Yojana is the world’s largest financial inclusion initiative under which 50 crore Jan Dhan Accounts were created.  A continued focus on giving legal ownership rights, toilets, electricity, and cooking gas connections to those lacking such basic amenities could further consolidate their support among the disadvantaged sections. Furthermore, after battling economic headwinds from COVID-19 disruptions, India’s GDP growth rebounded to an estimated 7 per cent in 2022-23. Likewise, providing a food safety net to 80 crore Indians through distributing 1,424 lakh metric tonnes of free food grains during the hard-hitting times of COVID-19 has ensured that no Indian should sleep with a hungry stomach.

Handling of National Security

National security has traditionally been considered one of the BJP’s major strong suits. The government’s assertive responses, like the 2016 surgical strikes and 2019 Balakot air strikes after terror attacks, were viewed as a departure from past perceived inaction. With long-standing tensions with Pakistan and an increasingly assertive China, security has been a significant priority for the Modi government. Policy moves include: (i) Authorising India’s armed forces to robustly respond to cross-border strikes like the 2016 and 2019 “surgical strikes” and “Balakot Air Strikes” against Pakistan following terror attacks, (ii) Fast-tracking defence procurement and acquisition processes to modernise India’s ageing military equipment with new fighter jets, drones, artillery, and missile systems. In 2023, proposals worth over Rs 3.50 lakh crore were approved. (iii) Boosting domestic defence manufacturing through initiatives like raising the FDI cap in the sector to 74 per cent. The goal is to turn India into a net defence exporter. Due to this, in the financial year 2022-23, India’s defence exports have reached an all-time high of approx Rs 16,000 crore, and for the first time, defence production in the Financial Year 2022-23 crossed the figure of one lakh crore rupees. (iv) Take a hard-line stance against Pakistan-based terrorist groups and engage in intense counter-insurgency operations in Jammu and Kashmir. At the same time, tensions are diffusing through backchannels, and (v) closer security cooperation is sought with like-minded countries like the U.S., France, Israel, and QUAD partners to counterbalance China’s influence.

Ideological Factors and Infrastructural Initiatives for a New India

The BJP’s core ideological underpinnings centred around cultural nationalism and the Hindu faith remain a durable part of its appeal among conservative segments of the electorate. The passage of the Citizenship Amendment Act, the advancement of the Ram Janmabhoomi Mandir construction in Ayodhya, and the abolition of Article 370 granting special status to Jammu & Kashmir were major ideological wins for the party. With India’s population estimated to overtake China’s by 2027, the Modi Government has prioritised ambitious infrastructure projects to address developmental bottlenecks and better integrate the country’s markets. Examples include:

  1. Unveiling the PM Gati Shakti National Master Plan for multimodal connectivity through enhanced roads, rail, ports, and logistics to accelerate the movement of people, goods, and services.
  2. Launching the Bharat Mala Pariyojna will develop about 65,000 km of highways, economic corridors, and expressways at an investment of over $100 billion.
  3. Expanding and modernising India’s railway network by commissioning new dedicated freight and high-speed passenger rail corridors.
  4. Sustainable urban housing can be developed through programs like the Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT), which provides 1.72 crore tap connections.

Modi’s Charisma

No analysis of the BJP’s political fortunes would be complete without examining Modi’s towering personal popularity. His image as a vikas purush (man of development), with his humble origins and self-made rise, has enabled him to establish a memorable connection with voters across demographic groups. The 2024 election could be framed as a presidential-style referendum on his leadership, legacy, and future vision for India’s emergence as a great power.

Modi has pursued assertive diplomacy to raise India’s clout and shape a rules-based global order. Modi has deepened strategic ties with Western partners like the U.S., European Union, and Israel while maintaining strong relations with Russia as part of a multi-alignment foreign policy. Under his leadership, India played a greater leadership role in multilateral institutions like BRICS, G20 summits, and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, pushing for long-pending reforms at the UN. Leveraging India’s growing economic and cultural influence through ambitious programs like the “Buddhist Circuit” to boost religious tourism and soft power outreach. Robustly pushing back against China’s aggression in border disputes and campaigning for designating Pakistan a state-sponsor of terrorism. Proactively engaging with the Indian diaspora worldwide and positioning India as a credible global power and first responder during crises like the Ukraine conflict and COVID-19 pandemic. During the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it was due to India’s emerging strength in the neo-global order that both countries stopped the war for the time being so that Indian students studying in Ukraine could get a clear passage to return to their motherland safely.

Conclusion 

By unlocking economic potential, reinvigorating security apparatuses, upgrading infrastructure, and pursuing confident diplomacy, Modi seeks to enhance India’s strength from within and clout abroad. Despite inevitable challenges, these policies have set India on an ambitious path to maximise effective governance and project disproportionate influence, befitting its immense human resources and market size. A result better than 2019 would grant him an unmatched electoral mandate in decades and potentially cement his legacy as one of India’s most consequential leaders since independence.

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