Lok Sabha Polls 2024 in Tamil Nadu: BJP’s litmus test for Southern push

The Bharatiya Janata Party in the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections is leading a coalition separate from DMK and AIADMK and is contesting against the two major Dravidian parties. BJP is determined to make significant electoral gains in the Dravidian heartland and aims to convert the positive sentiment into votes for the upcoming General Elections on April 19.

Emotional Connection With Voters
Whether it is Kashi Tamil Samagam or placing Tamil Sengol in the new Parliament, BJP-led by Shri Narendra Modi has made considerable effort to make a place in hearts of the people of Tamil Nadu. By embracing Tamil culture and language, the BJP aims to strengthen its appeal and credibility among Tamil Nadu voters.As Prime Minister, Narendra Modi’s repeated visits to the State over the past decade underscore his determination to transform the current scenario in the southern region of the country.

Tharanaveri, Kanyakumari, Coimbatore, Vellore, Nilgiris, Ramanathapuram, Perambalur, and Chennai South are the seats in which the NDA is aiming to secure victories this time. Notably, these constituencies have traditionally been dominated by regional parties like the AIADMK and DMK.

Bonding With Coimbatore
One of the key constituencies which BJP is aiming to break the stronghold of Dravidian parties is Coimbatore. Interestingly, Coimbatore stands out as a unique constituency in Tamil Nadu in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections 2024. This industrial hub, nestled in the foothills of the Western Ghats, has traditionally been an AIADMK stronghold. However, with a rising popularity of BJP President K Annamalai, the BJP have also gained a foothold in the region. The BJP also sees Coimbatore as a winnable seat, relying heavily on the substantial North Indian population.

Given these factors, the BJP has nominated its State president, 39-year-old former IPS officer K Annamalai, to contest from this constituency. Despite Annamalai’s confidence, challenging the two Dravidian heavyweights – DMK and AIADMK – will be a formidable task.

Notably, BJP’s CP Radhakrishnan clinched victory in Coimbatore in 1998 as an AIADMK ally and repeated the feat in 1999 as a DMK ally. However, since then, winning parliamentary elections has proven challenging for the BJP. In 2014, Radhakrishnan managed to push the DMK to the third position, securing the runner-up spot with 3.9 lakh votes.

The ruling party DMK is backed by a formidable nine-party alliance and with its ‘muscle and money power’, it has a clear advantage. DMK’s Ganapathi P Rajkumar is pitted against Annamalai from BJP, ‘Singai’ G Ramachandran from AIADMK, and NTK’s Kalamani Jagannathan.

Although Congress is not a major player in Coimbatore, it still commands approximately four to five per cent of the votes, which could be crucial in supporting the DMK-led alliance.

Despite BJP and Annamalai’s rising popularity, BJP lacks a strong organisational structure. However, voluntary support for the party is noticeable. In the run-up, Annamalai has been raising several issues targeting DMK, including corruption, dynastic politics, anti-Hindu agenda, deteriorating law and order and increasing drug trafficking.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, DMK got 33.2 per cent votes, AIADMK received 18.8 per cent, Congress got 12.9 per cent, PMK received 5.5 per cent and BJP got 3.6 per cent. For the first time, under the leadership of Narendra Modi and Annamalai, BJP is pinning hopes to achieve a double-digit vote share in Coimbatore.

The incumbent party in the Coimbatore Lok Sabha seat is CPM, with PR Natarajan serving as the sitting MP. He is one of only two CPM MPs from Tamil Nadu. The CPM, in alliance with the DMK, aims to strengthen its position in Coimbatore and has entrusted its keyman and IT cell head TRB Rajaa to stop Annamalai on this seat.
Rooting for PM Modi

For the first time, BJP is gaining people’s support, local sentiments seem to favour Annamalai. Gowmathi Naikkam, 59, Manager of a Hotel in Coimbatore, expressed confidence in Annamalai candidacy, stating, “He will definitely win, and we want Modi at the centre again. Modi is hardworking and good for the country.”

Expressing his opinion, Sanmugh Raja, a 21-year-old first-time voter who sells coconut water, said, “Earlier, I was confused about whom I would vote for – DMK, AIADMK or BJP but after hearing about Annamalai, I changed my mind. It feels like he is one among us”.

Krishnan Kumar, a resident of Coimbatore, highlighted the changing dynamics of political discourse. He stated, “Corruption doesn’t bother the people of Tamil Nadu anymore. They are accustomed to it and it’s not even a talking point in the elections.” Kumar emphasised Annamalai’s efforts to make corruption a central issue, targeting the 18-35 age group who are less aware of the State’s political history.

The En Mann En Makkal yatra led by Annamalai also had a significant impact on Tamil Nadu politics. This yatra effectively highlighted Prime Minister Modi’s achievements over the past decade, while also exposing the alleged failures of DMK. This was evident from the public sentiment, indicating that the BJP is expected to make gains in the State.

Ground reports suggest a significant anti-incumbency sentiment against sitting MP PR Natarajan. There are allegations that Natarajan lacks a strong connection with all his constituents, and his trade unionist interventions in the industrial areas have upset local entrepreneurs.

The stakes are high for all three major parties in Coimbatore. While DMK aims to establish its dominance, AIADMK seeks to retain its stronghold, and the BJP aspires to repeat its 1998 victory with Annamalai entering the Parliament. The political landscape in Coimbatore is evolving, and the upcoming elections are expected to be closely contested, reflecting the dynamic interplay of national and state politics in this crucial constituency.

Another constituency, which is being keenly watched in this electoral battle, is Nilgiris, where fight is between A Raja, the incumbent DMK MP and former Telecom Minister, and L Murugan of BJP, who currently serves as the Union Minister of State for Fisheries. This marks Murugan’s first electoral contest from this constituency, having been previously elected to the Rajya Sabha from Madhya Pradesh.

In the 2019 elections, A Raja defeated AIADMK candidate M Thiyagarajan by a significant margin of over 200,000 votes. Raja had previously won the seat in 2009 but failed to retain it in the 2014 elections. This time around, AIADMK has fielded Lokesh Tamilselvan, while Naam Tamilar Katchi’s (NTK) A Jayakumar adds another dimension to the contest, making it a four-cornered battle.

Despite being the main opposition party in the State, AIADMK appears to have slipped to the third position in this election. The Nilgiris constituency, reserved for Scheduled Castes, has historically been one of the few areas, along with Kanyakumari and Coimbatore, where the BJP has secured electoral success in Tamil Nadu.
Resentment Against DMK.

Murugan has been consistently criticising his opponent, A Raja, for his alleged anti-Hindu remarks. He promises voters a transformation of the constituency through infrastructure development and job opportunities, while highlighting the DMK’s purported anti-Hindu stance, corruption, and failure to fulfil promises made during the 2021 Assembly elections.

After A Raja’s remarks went viral, the Nilgiris region saw widespread protests and anger from the Hindu community. This surge of discontentment is likely to dent DMK’s vote share, bolstering Murugan’s chances.
Areas like Mettupalayam in the region still lack basic infrastructure, such as piped drinking water and adequate drainage systems.

K Kumar, a tea factory owner and resident of Nilgiris who takes a keen interest in politics, told Organiser, “One can easily see BJP’s growth in Nilgiris. Earlier, it didn’t even have three-four workers, but now it has a huge number of karyakartas working for the party day and night.”

Women Key to Victory

He added, “In villages, even at 10 pm, BJP is gaining huge support. Fifty two per cent of the population in Nilgiris are women, and they will be key to victory.” Women voters in Nilgiris are reportedly in favour of BJP due to their desire to eradicate Tamil Nadu’s liquor policy, which is sold through TASMAC outlets. They believe this policy leads to domestic violence and affects children. They perceive DMK as the instigator responsible for tearing families apart.

Jaya, a 72-year-old woman, told Organiser, “We are getting benefits from Central Government policies like PM Jan Aushadhi Yojana. We get medicines at cheaper rates, saving money for the future.”Despite its potential to become a major tourist hub, the district of Nilgiris lacks basic tourism infrastructure. Ooty, in particular, faces challenges with no public facilities, traffic between 5-9 pm, and inadequate lighting in hilly areas.

One factor favouring the BJP is the high literacy rate in the district. People are frustrated with corruption and dynastic politics, increasing the chances of BJP winning this seat. The Nilgiris constituency presents a pivotal electoral battle that could reshape the political landscape in Tamil Nadu.

Another high profile seat on which the Organiser team reached was Chennai South. This constituency has traditionally been a stronghold of the DMK. Leaders like Annadurai, Murasoli Maran, and former Union Minister TR Baalu have won from this constituency in the past.

Chennai South is also the second-largest Lok Sabha constituency in Tamil Nadu, with approximately 20.23 lakh voters. It is witnessing a high-profile bipolar contest between the ruling DMK and BJP. Notably, AIADMK is absent from the race.

In the current contest, DMK has fielded incumbent MP Thamizhachi Thangapandian, daughter of the late party veteran V Thangapandian. AIADMK has nominated Dr J Jayavardhan, who represented the seat from 2014 to 2019, and BJP has put forward former Telangana Governor Tamilisai Soundararajan as its candidate.

Like many other urban constituencies, Chennai South faces challenges such as heavy traffic congestion, poor infrastructure and inadequate drainage facilities. Several localities, including the upscale area of Velachery, are prone to flooding during the monsoon season.

Manivanna, an Uber driver, expressed his disillusionment with the political scenario, stating that he will opt for NOTA (None of the Above) as he views Stalin as a bad and corrupt person and does not want to vote for BJP either. He also observed a tough contest between the BJP and DMK.

Another cab driver, Govindarajulu, told Organiser, “I voted for the BJP twice but feel it lacks leadership in Tamil Nadu. I will also vote for NOTA.”

The inclination towards NOTA is a prevalent sentiment among cab and auto drivers in Chennai South.
Expressing confidence in BJP’s prospects, Lenin Kumar, a voter from Chennai South, said, “BJP is very strong and has fielded the right candidate. I am pleased with the construction of Ram Mandir and the abrogation of Article 370.”

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the fight is between DMK and BJP. AIADMK is slipping to third place on most of the seats. Corruption and dynastic politics are the main issues and people have accepted them as the norm. Annamalai aims to make this as a point of discussion and debate”, told senior journalist Dr MR Jayakrishnan to Organiser, while having a discussion on the politics of Tamil Nadu. “Even if not in the Lok Sabha, BJP will definitely excel in the Assembly polls”, he added.

Voters Against Corruption & Dynasts

Reportedly, the DMK Government faced significant criticism as Chennai South was one of the worst-affected areas during the floods in December 2023. Many localities, including Pallikaranai, Perungudi, and Velachery, which are populated by IT employees, were submerged for several days. This incident has severely impacted the DMK’s standing, with people now considering alternatives like the BJP’s Soundararajan.

In Chennai South, the predominant issues influencing voter choice are corruption and dynastic politics associated with both the DMK and AIADMK. Voters are actively seeking change and are looking towards the BJP as a viable alternative.

The Chennai South constituency presents a high-stakes bi-polar contest that could significantly influence the political dynamics in Tamil Nadu. With the DMK and BJP vying for supremacy, the outcome of this contest will not only shape the electoral landscape in the State but also reflect the electorate’s desire for a change, particularly in addressing issues like corruption and dynastic politics.

BJP has invested considerable efforts and resources in Tamil Nadu to secure electoral victories. Now, only time will tell whether BJP’s fortunes will finally turn in Tamil Nadu and how much the State will contribute to the Abki baar 400 paar campaign?