The ongoing and escalating West Asian conflict has stirred up the global system with its unprecedented implications. The shadow and proxy war is now out in the open after Iran decides to target Israel, the regional foes are taking on each other directly. The fear of the handicapped senses is translating into the brink of war. This has kept the West Asian region on edge. Meanwhile, an emerging player in the form of China has also caught the attention of the geopolitical discussion, but all for the wrong reasons. Chinese inertia is putting a question mark over its diplomatic clout in the West Asia.
On the contrary, India said it was “seriously concerned” about the escalation of hostilities between Iran and Israel and closely monitoring the evolving situation and call for immediate de-escalation of the situation and restraint violence and return to diplomatic mechanism to resolve.
While several countries, including Japan, The Philippines, Malaysia Indonesia, Singapore, Denmark, and Mexico, have immediately censured the drone and missile attacks on Israel’s soil, which Iran defends as a retaliation for an April 1 bombing of its consulate in Syria. Beijing has held back on criticising its important strategic partner despite claiming deep concerns. However, amidst the flared up tensions, the question arises how much leverage China wields over Iran – and whether Beijing is willing to turn its political capital into influence.
To set a brief context, in quite a dramatic turn of events, China brokered a high profile deal between two critical regional West Asian countries, Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023. China was perceived as a so called new peacemaker in the town and Beijing self proclaimed that the move was driving a “wave of reconciliation.” Consequently, China has abandoned its policy of non-interference in foreign affairs and is seeking to position itself as a new power player to expand its presence and influence in the West Asian region. Well, how fleeting was this moment.
In recent years, China and Iran have forged close economic and strategic ties, with China buying as much as 90 per cent of US-sanctioned Iranian crude oil in 2023 at discounted prices, making it Iran’s biggest trading partner.
A readout of Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi’s call with Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on Monday, reported by Chinese state media, defended the cause of the attack as an act of self defense. China views Iran as the victim in this entire unfolding episode. China praised Iran for acting with restraint in its response to Israel’s embassy attack. Separately, China’s special envoy on the Middle East, Zhai Jun, met with Irit Ben-Abba Vitale, Israel’s ambassador to China, and reiterated China’s call for an “immediate ceasefire and cessation of hostilities” in Gaza and “deep concern” about escalating regional tensions.
On the other hand, China had earlier quickly condemned Israel’s suspected strike on Iranian consulate. Also, stated that the US should play a constructive role in resolving the Gaza conflict.
Similarly, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to Wang and other counterparts in Türkiye and Saudi Arabia that escalation of the conflict is not in anyone’s favour, thus countries should refrain instigating Iran. It is not the first time the US had asked China to influence Iran since the war between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas broke out last October. It was reported that amidst the Houthi rebel attack surrounding the Red Sea region, the US tried to persuade China to pressurise Iran who is believed to fund and equip such proxy outfits. This attempt is futile as China will not prioritise the greater good over the fulfilment its own agendas.
Several expert commentators have viewed the inaction of Beijing over the violence that it considers Tehran’s actions a legitimate response. Beijing would want to be in the positive light with both Iran and the Arab world because its geo-economic considerations are at stake. China is expected to stick to its risk-averse, balancing policy while dealing with Iran and Israel. Although China seeks to maintain relationships with nearly every party in the West Asia, it has already sabotaged its ties to Israel.
Scholars have also pointed out that Israel perhaps target Iranian interests in the Hormuz Strait, a narrow but critical waterway between Iran and Oman it is considered to be most significant oil passage in the world, or a US strike from its military bases in the Gulf that could trigger an Iranian response. This could be China’s biggest concern for now corresponding to the West Asian region.
The Chinese diplomatic playbook is failing to discern the long term implications of its instrumental approach of weaponising trade relations. This will definitely undermine its regional strategy of developing close economic ties throughout Global South. Chinese credibility is already seen with scepticism, this will just embolden it further.
On paper, China has a strong leverage over Iran. However, in practice it is difficult for China to pull these levers to influence Iran’s behaviour. China has its own ulterior vested interest to expand BRI and West Asia plays a fulcrum to realise this ambitious plan. Although, it has been observed that Beijing and Tehran’s relations are going under strain due to gross underinvestment in Iran by China despite the repeated big talk of promises. The continued prolonged instability is likely to reduce future Chinese investments in Iran, which are already constrained due to the US sanctions.
China’s influence over West Asia is limited as a negotiator because they lack real coercive power in the region and remain primarily interested in trade and diplomatic initiatives. Chinese approach is quite different from the US as the former is not overextending itself as they believe the US has. China’s West Asian policy from a cursory glance: essentially to keep oil flowing, morally outshine the US in the region, build ties with autocratic elites, and avoid costly entanglements.
China is also on the edge because of this turmoil because a wider conflict poses threat to its investment and trade in the region, especially energy deals. It seems for China that Iran is not the issue, instead the root cause is the inability of the United States to tackle the Gaza conflict. So far, China’s hand-off approach in the Israel-Gaza conflict, making scathing remarks on Israel over Gaza and Iran’s conflicts, the actions on the ground has been negligent from Chinese end. This displays the convoluted situation faced by Beijing and its limited leverage in the West Asian which was presented as larger than life in 2023.
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