As the countdown begins for the first phase of polls in North East, the political landscape in the region is set for a decisive showdown in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections of 2024. Scheduled for April 19, the first phase will see voters casting their ballots not only for parliamentary representatives but also for Assembly elections in Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim. At the forefront of this electoral battle stands the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), with its North Eastern arm, the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), poised to secure a significant share of seats, mirroring its success in the previous General Elections five years ago.
Committed to Holistic Development
Over the past decade, under the visionary leadership of Prime Minister Modi, North East has witnessed a remarkable transformation, marked by unprecedented strides towards peace, stability, and development. With 11 peace agreements signed and over 9,500 insurgents voluntarily surrendering and reintegrating into the mainstream since 2014, the region has taken significant steps towards fostering lasting peace and harmony. As Prime Minister Modi aptly stated, Aaj North East na Delhi se door hai aur na dil se door hai! (Today, North East is neither far from Delhi nor from our hearts), reflecting the Government’s unwavering commitment to the holistic development of the region. In tandem with efforts to ensure peace and security, substantial investments in rail infrastructure, air connectivity, construction of airports, expansion of National Highways, and the construction of iconic bridges such as the Bogibeel and Dhola-Sodiya bridge over the Brahmaputra have reshaped the region’s infrastructure landscape. With Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma affirming that the people of North East will vote for Modi and development, the upcoming Lok Sabha elections stand as a testament to the transformative impact of Modi’s governance on the lives of millions across the region.
Statistics Speak
With eight border States comprising the North East—Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, and Tripura—the region commands 25 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha. The electoral process is set to unfold over multiple phases, spanning April 19, 26, and May 7.
In the 2019 General Elections, the NDA clinched victory in 18 seats across the North East, with the BJP securing 14 seats alone from States like Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura and Manipur.
Himanta Biswa Sarma, convenor of the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) and Chief Minister of Assam representing the BJP, has expressed confidence over the NDA’s prospects, predicting a triumph in 22 seats across the region. Notably, he asserts that the NDA is poised to secure both parliamentary seats in Manipur.
Assam, the most populous State in the North East, holds significant sway with its 14 parliamentary seats. In the 2019 elections, the BJP secured victory in nine seats. This time around, the ruling party has fielded candidates in 11 constituencies, with allies Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) contesting the remaining three. The recent delimitation of electoral constituencies in Assam, concluded in December 2022 after two decades, is anticipated to bolster the NDA’s prospects. Chief Minister Sarma has reiterated claims that the NDA, along with its allies, is poised to secure at least 12 seats in Assam. Beyond Assam, other States in the region hold crucial significance. Arunachal Pradesh, with its two seats both won by BJP candidates in 2019, and Meghalaya, with two seats, are among them. Additionally, Tripura and Manipur each hold two seats, while Nagaland, Mizoram and Sikkim each have one.
As the election fever grips North East, political parties are intensifying their campaigns, vying for voter support and charting the course for the region’s political future. The outcome of these elections is poised to shape the socio-political landscape of North East for years to come.
BJP In Advantageous Position
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) approaches the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in the North East with a strong focus on its development agenda, leveraging a decade-long legacy of infrastructural achievements in the region. From pioneering the semiconductor industry in Assam to fostering robust border development initiatives in Arunachal Pradesh and erecting the tallest pier rail bridge in Manipur, the saffron party showcases an array of transformative projects aimed at bolstering the region’s socio-economic landscape. In contrast, the Opposition landscape appears fragmented and weakened, particularly evident in Assam, where the United Opposition Forum Assam (UOFA), spearheaded by the Congress, grapples with internal discord over seat allocation. Internal dissension within the alliance, as underscored by a senior functionary, highlights the absence of a cohesive front against the BJP-led NDA. Further exacerbating the opposition’s disarray, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) throws its hat into the ring by fielding candidates in pivotal constituencies like Dibrugarh and Sonitpur and CPI(M) in Barpeta constituency in Assam, thereby deepening existing divisions. Despite these challenges, the BJP and its allies mount an aggressive campaign, spotlighting their track record of governance and unveiling a slew of welfare schemes that resonate with the electorate. Prominent party figures, including Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, and BJP National President JP Nadda, crisscross the region, rallying support through extensive campaign trails in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. As anticipation builds, Prime Minister Modi is slated to headline several mega rallies across the North East, solidifying the party’s narrative of progress and seeking to clinch a resounding mandate in the upcoming elections.
Issues Affecting Voters
Despite the Opposition parties’ effort to raise contentious issues such as the Citizenship Amendment Act 2019 and the controversy surrounding electoral bonds, these factors are unlikely to sway voters significantly in the upcoming General Elections 2024. In Assam, the NDA braces itself for tough contests in Nagaon and Karimganj constituencies, given their predominantly minority voter demographics. With over 64 per cent minority voters in Nagaon, the saffron party faces an uphill battle, mirrored in the similar landscape of Karimganj. Meanwhile, the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), led by Badruddin Ajmal, exudes confidence in the Muslim-dominated Dhubri constituency, where Ajmal himself is contesting. The opposition Congress, however, grapples with a significant disadvantage in the North East, having failed to secure victory in any State Assembly elections in recent years. With the BJP and its allies firmly entrenched in six out of the eight States in the region, the ruling party enjoys a considerable advantage, particularly in the hill States where the electorate tends to favour continuity in governance. As the electoral battle intensifies, the complex interplay of demographic dynamics and political allegiances is poised to shape the outcome of the polls, with both the ruling NDA and the Opposition vying for supremacy in this strategically crucial region of Bharat.
In the vibrant tapestry of North East’s electoral landscape, a diverse array of issues and regional dynamics converge to shape the trajectory of the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Across the region, from Meghalaya to Manipur, from Nagaland to Arunachal Pradesh, each State presents its unique set of challenges and priorities, reflecting the multifaceted nature of the political terrain. In Meghalaya, where the National People’s Party (NPP) holds sway, concerns over the implementation of the Inner Line Policy (ILP), the Citizenship Amendment Act 2019 and border disputes with neighbouring Assam dominate the discourse. The ruling NPP, confident in its stronghold, navigates the electoral landscape amidst cracks within the Opposition and the emergence of regional players, eyeing victory in both constituencies.
Similarly, in Nagaland and Mizoram, the termination of the Free Movement Regime (FMR) with Myanmar and the protracted Naga political issues take precedence. The BJP’s partnership in Nagaland Government, coupled with advancements in the Naga Peace Talks, provides the NDA with a strategic advantage in addressing these complex issues. Meanwhile, Mizoram’s ruling Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) is poised to secure the State’s lone parliamentary seat. Though ZPM is not a partner of the NDA, it has said to support the party in power at the Centre.
In Sikkim, the dissolution of the BJP’s alliance with the ruling Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM) sets the stage for a competitive electoral battle, with both parties vying for the solitary parliamentary seat.
In Manipur, the BJP maintains optimism in the Inner Manipur seat, while its NDA ally, the Naga People’s Front (NPF), holds sway in Outer Manipur, particularly in the hill districts. Restoring peace in the State, which has witnessed prolonged violence since May 2023, is the prime issue for the ruling party and its alliance partners.
In Nagaland, where a single parliamentary seat is at stake, the coalition between the BJP and NPF within the People’s Democratic Alliance strengthens the NPF’s prospects of clinching victory. Arunachal Pradesh and Tripura, both under BJP rule, are poised for a clean sweep, with the BJP expected to dominate all four parliamentary constituencies. Simultaneous State Assembly elections in these two States add another layer of significance to the electoral process, as voters prepare to cast their ballots in both parliamentary and State legislative contests.
Leave a Comment