Prime Minister Narendra Modi has always believed in the mantra that “nothing is impossible” if you strive for it and don’t get disheartened by the hurdles you face.
No doubt, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has indeed faced an uphill task in South India.
But, this time round, Modi Ji is determined to change the situation that has prevailed there for many years. So much so, the 2024 Lok Sabha polls may be the beginning of the change in perception about the BJP. The change could be more particularly in States like Tamil Nadu and Kerala where it has always been believed that Modi’s magic has limitations.
As they say, nothing can be taken to be permanent in politics though regional parties do have a dominant role there.
Analysing South Statistically
In all, there are 130 Lok Sabha seats in the South – Tamil Nadu (39), Karnataka (28), AP (25), Telangana (17), Kerala (20) and Puducherry (1). In the last Lok Sabha polls, the Congress won 28 Lok Sabha seats from the South – Kerala (15), TN (8), Telangana (3), Karnataka (1) and Puducherry (1) — while the BJP won 29 seats — Karnataka (25) and Telangana (4).
But, undeterred by any thought of limitations, Modi has ensured:
Examining State-wise What the Battle Looks Like
KARNATAKA: Among the Southern States, Karnataka still holds the highest potential for gaining seats for the BJP despite the setback in the Assembly polls in 2023. The BJP’s tally in Karnataka touched the saturation mark (25 of 28) in the 2019 LS polls when the Congress touched its nadir (1 seat).
All eyes are now on the Congress to see how far the party can make use of its Assembly victory (135 seats and 42.88 per cent votes) to lift its tally in the Lok Sabha polls and what BJP’s Assembly performance (66 seats and 36 per cent vote) translates into.
What adds to the dynamics is the role of the Deve Gowda-led Janata Dal (Secular) after its Assembly poll defeat (19 seats and 13.29 per cent votes). By aligning with the Gowdas, thus making the traditional triangular contest into a Congress Vs BJP-JDS straight fight, the BJP hopes to bring together two voter bases – Vokkaligas and Lingayats – together.
The BJP central leadership has affected a course correction by handing back the State party leadership to the Yeddyurappa camp. Finally, it is believed that ‘the Modi factor’ can lift the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls as the PM remains popular among state voters despite the crushing Assembly poll defeat.
For the Congress, the Siddaramaiah-DK Shivakumar combine will have to ensure that the party retains the goodwill of the voters. Many Congress Ministers have refused to contest the Lok Sabha polls and, instead, ensured tickets for the family members.
TAMIL NADU: A successful padayatra by Tamil Nadu BJP chief K Annamalai, followed by Modi’s visits has created a favourable impression of the PM and the BJP among the local people. The elections in Tamil Nadu will test whether the DMK and its allies, including the Congress, can repeat their sweeping performance of the last Lok Sabha polls (38 of 39 seats and 53.53 per cent votes) and the 2021 assembly polls (159 of 234 seats and 45.38 per cent votes).
This time, severe anti-incumbency issues and charges of nepotism and corruption are working against the MK Stalin Government. There is also alleged involvement of an international drug network of peddlers with the ruling party leaders. Udayanidhi Stalin’s attempts to attack Sanatan Dharma to cover up allegations of corruption against top DMK Ministers do not appear to have worked in DMK’s favour.
The AIADMK, which is supposed to be the main Opposition party, appears to be more focused on defeating TN BJP president K Annamalai. There is talk of the DMK trying to help the AIADMK, which left the BJP-led NDA in the hope of getting minority votes.
Executing PM’s Plan through Padayatra
Annamalai has managed to carry out Modi’s plan to reach out to voters in many districts through his padayatra. Under Annamalai, the BJP has found new vigour to take on the ruling DMK. It is against this scenario that Modi has made efforts to weave an emotional and cultural link between the BJP-Hindutva and the Tamil tradition, including the projection of the ‘Kashi Tamil Sangamam’
TELANGANA: Shri Modi is undeterred by the strategic advantage and confidence of the Congress to build on the assembly victory (64 of 119 seats and 39.4 per cent votes). The BJP is making a case that Telangana won’t see much change because the Congress is no different from that of the BRS, which still is not in a great position to overcome its defeat
What is positive for the BJP is that it ended up a distant third in the Assembly polls. However, it put up its best show (8 seats and 13.9 per cent votes). The BJP had won an impressive 4 (of 17) LS seats in 2019, thus making Telangana a potential growth area. Telangana has the required social character for the BJP to ground its narrative. It has a Muslim population of close to 15 per cent, concentrated in districts like Nizamabad, where the BJP defeated K Kavitha, the daughter of ex-Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao in 2019.
Owaisi On Backfoot
The Muslims have so far been represented by a Muslim party under Asaduddin Owaisi’s leadership. His brother Akbaruddin Owaisi made fiery speeches against Hindu Gods and Goddesses. Socially, the Muslims of Telangana are not integrated. Interestingly, Telangana CM Revanth Reddy has become ‘unreliable’ for Congress’ top leaders after his praise for development under PM Modi and his refusal to join the North-South divide narrative. Rahul Gandhi may not be happy with Revanth Reddy’s reference to Modi as “elder brother” during the visit of the PM to Telangana recently. By fielding Madhavi Latha against Owaisi, the BJP put him on a back foot. She is getting a good response in Hyderabad, particularly from women voters, including those from the Muslim community.
ANDHRA PRADESH: With the BJP formally joining the tie-up between the TDP and Jana Sena Party led by actor Pawan Kalyan, the Lok Sabha polls are a battle between two regional parties, Jaganmohan Reddy’s YSRCP and TDP, with the Congress hoping to get support because of its Telangana and Karnataka success.
The Congress has inducted Jagan’s sister, YS Sharmila, hoping to break YSRCP. Andhra Pradesh has 25 Lok Sabha and 175 Assembly seats and the BJP is hoping to open its account. Jagan’s party is facing anti-incumbency issues. Interestingly, Sharmila is attacking her brother Jagan but he has avoided counter attack to minimise damage to his party. Whoever wins Andhra Pradesh will seek to have good relations with Modi and the BJP. That is the crux of the matter.
KERALA: Actually, the Congress’ traditional base is the over 44 per cent Muslim-Christian segments. This is despite CM Pinarayi Vijayan getting a second term in the 2021 Assembly polls. That is why the state Congress, in competition with the Left, had asked the AICC leadership not to attend the Ayodhya Ram temple opening event. Several controversies in the second term of the Pinaryi Vijayan regime have forced the Marxists to go all-out to woo Muslims. Under Modi’s direction, the BJP too has made efforts to woo the Hindu-Christian segments. The Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency in north Kerala is of special national interest. Will Rahul Gandhi again contest from this seat? Already, the question of his contesting against Smriti Irani from Amethi (where he lost in 2019) has again become an issue in Wayanad. The BJP is eyeing the 18% Christian vote and trying to build bridges with various church leaders to brighten its poll prospects. The party even organised a snehayatra for Christmas to reach out to the Christians.
North-South Binary Is Non Existent
One thing is clear that the perceived ‘North-South political divide’ is coming to an end. Previously, it was blamed for the BJP’s poor showing and the Congress’ big success in Karnataka and Telangana after the 2023 Assembly elections. Since then, it has been argued that a combination of Modi’s development plank and the BJP’s Hindutva politics cannot click in the South. This narrative has been used to argue that the South’s 130 Lok Sabha seats are not easily up for grab by the BJP, no matter how hard Modi may try in the 2024
Lok Sabha elections
It is true that, historically, that Congress found refuge in the South when it was routed in the North in 1977 after the Emergency excesses led to the downfall of Indira Gandhi. Even when the Congress was decimated to its worst tally in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the South offered strong shelter for the Gandhis. We also saw that when the Congress sought to return to the centrestage, the Southern voters supported the party in 2004 and 2009. But today, it is doubtful that a similar situation exists in the South because of changing ground realities.
No doubt, Karnataka and Telangana victories in 2023 provided the Congress with the much-needed dynamics. The BJP lost Karnataka, where the lotus bloomed first, because of its inability to find a suitable successor to replace a veteran BS Yeddyurappa. This time, Yeddyurappa is guiding the party. The BJP too has never given up attempts to somehow reach out to the voters. As the BJP realises it may have reached a saturation point electorally in Northern and Western India, the PM seems to be making a determined effort in the South. Certainly, there will be good news from the South.
Leave a Comment