Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with confidence, said during the final session of the 17th Lok Sabha that next time it will be above 400. The BJP will get 370 seats alone, and the NDA coalition will cross the 400 mark. Most observers and pre-election surveys suggest that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to win this election once again. Understanding the mathematics of Bharatiya politics is not very simple. Yet, commentators like Karan Thapar and Ramachandra Guha, who are relatively critical of the BJP, also believe that the Bharatiya Janata Party’s Government can be formed for the third time.
Some observers are keeping an eye on the INDI alliance. They believe that even if the BJP wins, the victory will not be as big as claimed because of the INDI alliance. However, with time, this alliance is disappearing. In Punjab, West Bengal, Assam, Kerala, and Jammu and Kashmir, ‘soldiers’ of the ‘alliance’ are fighting against each other.
Prospects of NDA in North India
The general opinion is that the role of the Northern States will be significant in the victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party. In these 10 States and Union Territories of Delhi, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, and Chandigarh, there are a total of 245 Lok Sabha seats. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party won 163 out of these seats, and its allied parties won on 29 seats. After the success in the North, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, Assam, Tripura, and West Bengal are States from where the party gets better results.
There is a difference in the structure of the NDA and INDI. BJP is the centre of NDA. Here, the importance of other parties is relatively less. Congress is at the center of INDI, but it has more interference from regional parties than the allied parties of NDA. JDU and Trinamool are now separate, and the Left is separate in Kerala. There will be pressure from Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh and RJD in Bihar on Congress. However, Congress has already secured 17 and 9 seats in both States, respectively, which is a cause for concern regarding their strike rate.
Mathematics and Chemistry of Alliance
The INDI alliance has attempted to consolidate that mathematics, whereby the Opposition parties are confronted by a single candidate from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). However, this has not yet materialised. Essentially, this is a game of numbers, or ‘one-to-one’ mathematics. That is, one candidate from the BJP against one candidate from the opposition. Although this has not happened, let’s imagine that the BJP receives 40 per cent of the votes nationwide, will the remaining 60 per cent of the votes be against the BJP?
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the alliance between the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Uttar Pradesh was based on this mathematics, which failed. The SP-Congress alliance also failed in the 2017 Vidhan Sabha elections prior to the SP-BSP alliance.
In the 2022 Vidhan Sabha elections, a partial success was achieved by the alliance between the SP, Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), Mahan Dal, and Janvadi Party (Samajwadi), but that alliance is no longer there. There is no direct equations that if parties become friends, voters will also follow suit.
The Politics of Benefaction
The INDI alliance has decided to make OBC an issue in North India and regional autonomy in the South. Their main slogan is ‘Remove Modi.’ Why should voters trust their claims and what guarantee is there that this alliance will remain intact? On the other hand, the BJP’s appeal to the beneficiaries is heavy. They attract the public with promises of free grains for the poor, Ujjwala scheme, Jan Dhan Yojana, piped water, along with issues like the construction of Ram Mandir, Article 370, Uniform Civil Code, Triple Talaq, and women’s reservation.
The party is also fighting elections on issues like a clean India, Bharat’s global prominence from economic growth to Chandrayaan and Gaganyaan missions. Will issues like digital economy, Vandemataram, bullet train, national security, and making Bharat the world’s third-largest economy convince people to vote for them? Now let’s take a look at different states:
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh played a crucial role in the victory of the Janata Party in 1977 and the BJP in 2014. In the 80 seats here, the BJP won 71 seats in 2014, and its ally Apna Dal (S) won 2 seats. In 2019, the BJP’s seat count reduced to 62, and its ally Apna Dal (S) won 2 seats. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has said that this time they will win on all 80 seats.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, there was an alliance between the SP, BSP, and Rashtriya Lok Dal, but this time RLD is with the BJP. BSP is contesting alone in these elections. Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM is also in the field, forming alliances with some other regional organizations. Within the BJP-NDA alliance, there are parties like Rashtriya Lok Dal, Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) led by Om Prakash Rajbhar, and Sanjay Nishad’s party, Nishad Bharatiya Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal (NISHAD). These parties broaden the social base of the BJP. In the INDI block, apart from SP and Congress, Keshav Dev Maurya’s Mahan Dal is also a part. SP has given 17 seats to Congress in Uttar Pradesh, and in return, Congress has given one seat in Khajuraho, Madhya Pradesh, to SP. The Samajwadi Party is supporting Congress on five seats in Uttarakhand.
Uttar Pradesh has two symbols of national politics. Varanasi symbolizes the political dominance of the BJP, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi has won two consecutive elections. On the other hand, Raebareli has been the invincible fortress of the Congress. The BJP failed to breach this fortress in the 2014 and 2019 elections. However, this time this fortress can also fall.
The Congress has not announced its candidates in Amethi and Raebareli until now. In the 2019 elections, Sonia Gandhi won from Raebareli, but this time she has stepped back and entered Parliament through the Rajya Sabha route. The Congress is uncertain about Amethi since Smriti Irani’s victory over Rahul Gandhi. She has once again nominated herself from Wayanad, Kerala. In the last elections, neither SP nor BSP fielded their candidates against Rahul Gandhi in Amethi, but he still lost.
The BJP has won three or more consecutive elections on eight seats in Uttar Pradesh. This includes Lucknow, where Atal Bihari Vajpayee used to continuously win elections, and now Rajnath Singh is standing from there. In the eight elections held in Lucknow since 1991, the BJP has emerged victorious every time. Gautam Buddha Nagar and Ghaziabad became new Lok Sabha constituencies in 2009. Earlier, Ghaziabad was known as Hapur. Except for one defeat in 2004, the BJP has consistently won this seat. Gautam Buddha Nagar was previously known as Khurja. The BJP has been winning this seat continuously since 1998. Bareilly has had a winning streak since 1989. Congress won this seat in 2009 once. However, the BJP has been in control of this seat since 2014. There are a total of 48 seats in the state where a party has won two consecutive elections.
BIHAR
Bihar is the second most important state in North India after Uttar Pradesh, where there are 40 seats in the Lok Sabha. Both states have caste and religious structures at work. In Uttar Pradesh, Akhilesh Yadav has created his social equation ‘PDA’ (Backward, Dalit, and Minority), while in Bihar, Tejashwi Yadav has his ‘BAP’ (Bhujan Agda, Adhikarik Abadi, and Poor). But fundamentally, both states have the same formula of M-Y, which is Muslim and Yadav.
In Bihar, the focus of the RJD is on 13 Lok Sabha constituencies where the Muslim population ranges from 12% to 65%. Additionally, the party keeps an eye on Yadav dominant areas. After the 2015 Bihar Assembly elections, the concept of the Mahagathbandhan emerged, which is now known as the INDIA Block. With the return of Nitish Kumar to his JDU in the NDA, there has been a decline in the temperament of the Mahagathbandhan. The NDA has strengthened the alliance by aligning with Chirag Paswan, the son of Ram Vilas Paswan.
In the 2019 elections, the NDA won 39 out of 40 seats and is claiming to repeat that success this time. RJD has kept 26 seats with them in the seat distribution of the Mahagathbandhan, of which they have given three seats to the VIP (Vikassheel Insaan Party). RJD itself is contesting on 23 seats. The remaining 14 seats have been given to other allies of the Mahagathbandhan. Congress has 9 seats, CPI(ML) has 3, and CPIM has 1. From a social engineering perspective, the seats held by RJD have a majority Muslim and Yadav population. These include Kishanganj, Katihar, Araria, Purnia, Madhubani, Darbhanga, Sitamarhi, West Champaran, Siwan, Sheohar, Khagaria, Supaul, Bhagalpur, Madhepura, Aurangabad, and Gaya. Kishanganj has the highest Muslim population, around 67%, but this seat was given to the Congress in the distribution. BJP is contesting on 17 seats in the NDA, JDU on 16 seats, LJP (Lok Janshakti Party) led by Chirag Paswan on 5 seats, and the parties Hum and RLSP are contesting on one seat each.”
Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh is the third most important State in North India, where there are 29 seats in the Lok Sabha. Usually, there has been a direct competition between the BJP and Congress here. Under the alliance, Congress had given the Khajuraho seat to the Samajwadi Party this time, but its candidate Meera Devi Narayan Yadav’s nomination has been cancelled. BJP is contesting on all 29 seats and Congress on 28 seats. BJP has given ticket to former Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan from Vidisha and Congress has given ticket to former Chief Minister Digvijay Singh from Rajgarh. Jyotiraditya Scindia is in the election field from Guna. This seat will be closely watched, as the Congress party is considering it a prestige fight.
Rajasthan
In Rajasthan, direct competitions usually take place. The Congress has not been able to open its account in this State for the past ten years. In this election, the Congress has left two seats for its alliance partners. The BJP has fielded candidates on all 25 seats. There is a triangular contest on the Barmer seat. BJP wants to repeat the performance of the previous elections for the third time, while Congress wants to at least replicate the 2009 performance.
Chhattisgarh
After the State Assembly elections, there is a direct competition between the BJP and Congress on the 11 Lok Sabha seats in Chhattisgarh. In the Lok Sabha elections of this State formed two and a half decades ago, the scales have usually remained in favour of the BJP. From General Elections held in 2004 after the formation of the State to the three elections in 2014, the BJP won on 10 out of the 11 seats in the State. In 2019, Congress improved its performance and won two seats. A few months ago, BJP returned to power in the State. The party’s attempt is to win all 11 seats and make history. Congress has made the competition interesting by giving ticket to former Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel from Rajnandgaon. Here, he directly competes with BJP candidate Santosh Pandey. There is also internal conflict in Congress.
Jharkhand
Like Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand is also presenting an opportunity for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to increase its numbers. The party claims that it will win all 14 Lok Sabha seats in Jharkhand. At the end of the year, there are also state assembly elections, so the Lok Sabha elections will set the background for it. Differences are emerging among the component parties of the ‘INDIA’ alliance, which is standing opposite the BJP, regarding the distribution of seats. Left parties have announced their candidates for four seats.
Punjab
The alliance politics in Punjab is in disarray. Most of the important parties are contesting separately in the elections. The state is governed by the Aam Aadmi Party. It is part of the ‘INDIA’ alliance, but a consensus could not be reached in Punjab. There is no alliance between the BJP and the Shiromani Akali Dal either. Some pre-election surveys are giving BJP four to six seats. The seats will also be distributed between the Aam Aadmi Party and the Congress in their fight against each other.
Punjab’s politics is divided into three major regions – Majha, Doaba, and Malwa. The Majha region lies between the Ravi and Beas rivers. Doaba starts from the Beas River and goes up to the Sutlej. The area beyond the Sutlej is called Malwa. BJP’s chances are better in the three seats of the Majha region – Gurdaspur, Amritsar, and Khadoor Sahib. In Gurdaspur, BJP has given the ticket to Dinesh Singh Babu in place of Sunny Deol. BJP also has a chance in Amritsar. There are three seats in the Doaba region – Jalandhar, Hoshiarpur, and Anandpur Sahib. Hoshiarpur seat can be won by BJP. There are seven seats in Malwa – Ludhiana, Fatehgarh Sahib, Ferozepur, Firozpur, Bathinda, Sangrur, and Patiala. Aam Aadmi Party has an influence in this region. Congress’s Ravneet Singh Bittu has been a member of parliament from Ludhiana twice. He is now with the BJP.
Haryana
According to a recent survey, there is a possibility of a significant victory for BJP once again in Haryana. BJP can win 9 out of the state’s 10 seats. The Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party’s INDI alliance may get one seat at the most. Meanwhile, recently separated Jananayak Janata Party and Bharatiya National Lok Dal are not making any significant impact in this Lok Sabha election.
Delhi
There will be some interesting contests in the capital city Delhi, where Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Congress have formed an alliance. Of the seven seats in Delhi, AAP is contesting on four seats, while Congress is contesting on three seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has changed its candidates on all seats except one. These elections are not only important for the BJP in terms of the seven seats in the Lok Sabha, but also for the upcoming 2025 Assembly elections. If the AAP Government bids farewell to Delhi in 2025, many problems will be solved. Therefore, the results this time will be very interesting.
Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand
Although Congress party had success in the Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections held last year, the party’s condition is poor in terms of organisational strength. Based on its organisational capacity, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) can win all or most of the nine seats in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. In both States, only the Congress is present in the name of the Bharatiya Gathbandhan. The Bahujan Samaj Party also has an influence in the Terai region of Uttarakhand, but it is currently the most separate. This will benefit the BJP. The Samajwadi Party has decided to support the Congress in Uttarakhand, but its impact is questionable.
Jammu and Kashmir
Just as Bihar proposed the idea of a Mahagathbandhan for Opposition parties, Jammu and Kashmir proposed the idea of the Gupkar Alliance in 2020. After the revocation of Article 370 in August 2019, it seemed like all the Opposition parties had come together on one platform. A similar situation was seen during the formation of the INDI Alliance last year when Mehbooba Mufti of PDP and Farooq Abdullah of National Conference stood on the same platform. But now that the opportunity to fight elections has come, this alliance has fallen apart.
Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh are now two Union Territories, but there is not much change in the structure of the Lok Sabha seats. There are five seats in Jammu and Kashmir and one in Ladakh. Apart from the National Conference and PDP, the State’s politics has seen a significant impact from regional parties like Jammu and Kashmir National Panthers Party. This time, on the Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha seat, PDP President Mehbooba Mufti will contest against Gulam Nabi Azad, leader of the Democratic Azad Progressive Party (DPAP). Here, the National Conference has also fielded its candidate. The alliance between Congress and National Conference is strong in the elections. The National Conference will contest on the Anantnag, Baramulla, and Srinagar seats, while the Congress candidates will contest in the Udhampur, Jammu, and Ladakh seats.
Odisha
In March 2009, Biju Janata Dal broke an alliance with BJP after 11 years. This alliance was formed in 1998 to remove Congress. As BJD became stronger, it did not feel the need for BJP as its partner. It is 15 years since both parties separated. Now, in 2024, it looks like the BJP is giving a tough fight to BJP. BJD is facing rebellions as it denied tickets to many leaders. The condition is such that it is unable to find candidates.
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